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Grading The Deal: Dwight To Lakers In Most Important NBA Trade In Over 30 Years

If Rob Hennigan was general manager of the Magic in 2004, Dwight Howard would have already have multiple championships. 

When Tracy McGrady requested a trade from the Magic after that season, he was dealt to the Rockets in exchange for Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley and Kelvin Cato. Orlando received no picks in the trade and they began to build around Howard as a mediocre team.

The Magic had the 11th selection in 2005 (Fran Vazquez) and 2006 (J.J. Redick), then traded what would be the 15th overall pick in 2007 for Darko Milicic. Orlando then selected 22nd in 2008 (Courtney Lee) and traded away the 27th pick in 2009.

Contrast that with the Thunder, who had the fourth pick in 2008 (Russell Westbrook) and third pick in 2009 (James Harden) to add to Kevin Durant with the second overall pick in 2007. Sam Presti, Hennigan's mentor, immediately traded away Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis with virtually nothing in return because he was committed to building around Durant over the long-term.

The objective is to be extraordinarily bad for several subsequent seasons, accumulate high drafted prospects, develop that talent and then draft complementary players with the additional picks.

Hennigan comes from the Spurs/Thunder tree and this is the path Orlando will head down over the next three or four seasons.

Trading away Howard should theoretically give the Magic a better return on paper than Arron Afflalo, Nikola Vucevic, Maurice Harkless, Al Harrington, Josh McRoberts, three protected future first rounders and a second rounder, but it is certainly a better trade than Luis Scola, Kevin Martin, Lamar Odom and Goran Dragic (Hornets' original agreed trade of Chris Paul). Afflalo may not be as good as Eric Gordon and the pick that became Austin Rivers (Clippers' trade), but he is a legitimate two-way starter at shooting guard.

The real value in the trade is the stockpile of picks and the ability to be bad. The Magic may not have acquired any player in this deal that will ever play in an All-Star Game, but they are off the mediocrity treadmill and losing 60 games annually over the next two or three seasons, as cynical as it sounds, is the clearest path in finding their next franchise player.

The Rockets' trade offer had better value picks and I would have preferred it, but it is clear that this trade beats Brooklyn's offer centered around Brook Lopez, as well as the aforementioned McGrady deal. It also is better than simply switching out Howard for Andrew Bynum (free agent in 2013) and a 2017 first rounder from the Lakers.

Grade for Magic: B+

There is no downside whatsoever for the Lakers, who have again acquired the best center of his generation.

Bynum is the NBA’s second best center by a wide margin, but Howard is the NBA’s best center by an even wider margin. Howard impacts the game defensively that is difficult to quantify even in our advanced statistics era of basketball. He also gives the Lakers a global star through at least the remaining seven years of the decade, possibly longer when factoring in his age and how big men remain relevant into their mid thirties.

While Howard and the Lakers have a two or three-season window with the current core of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Steve Nash, it is difficult to envision a supporting cast that immediately better complements Howard. Those three players are supremely gifted offensively and a 70% field goal shooting is within the realm of possibilities for Howard. Howard has become somewhat underrated over the past few months and he will have ample opportunity to prove how good he truly is now that he has been freed from a bad team to join three future Hall of Famers.

The Lakers will have cap room after the 13-14 season when Bryant and Gasol become free agents, which will allow the Lakers to re-sign those two players if they remain productive, or explore their options in free agency.

Howard will not sign a new deal until the summer of 2013, but nobody leaves the Lakers, especially when there is such a heavy financial benefit of remaining.

Grade for Lakers: A

The 76ers and Nuggets cleverly slide into the inevitable Howard to the Lakers trade by acquiring All-Star talents that improve the complexion of their roster.

Philadelphia had what Iguodala brings to the floor in other areas on their depth chart and on more affordable contracts, but they didn’t have an interior presence of Bynum’s quality. A team built around Bynum, Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner and Thaddeus Young is collectively better suited to be a threat in the Eastern Conference than the team that won 53% of their games last season.

Grade for 76ers: A

Iguodala isn’t a superstar talent of Carmelo Anthony’s caliber, but he fits perfectly with the type of team Masai Ujiri has assembled for George Karl’s system. Iguodala becomes Denver’s best player and will immediately excel in running every team in the NBA out of the gym.

The Nuggets have the best overall depth in the NBA, which could mean another three quarters for a dollar bill trade possible to take another step toward competing with the Thunder, Lakers and Spurs in the Western Conference’s upper echelon, especially since they were able to keep the Nene exception.

Grade for Nuggets: A

Grading The Deal: Steve Nash To The Lakers

The Lakers acquired Steve Nash in a sign-and-trade without giving up any element that hinders their ability to win in the short-term. They also used the last semi-direct byproduct of the 2004 Shaquille O’Neal trade by acquiring Nash via the Traded Player Exception created when they sent Lamar Odom to the Mavericks last December.

Nash makes the Lakers even worse defensively at point guard, which is especially troublesome since the Western Conference is going through Russell Westbrook and the Thunder for the remainder of his career. There is also the fear that Nash’s skill-set will go underutilized considering the high usage of Kobe Bryant and how frequently they run their offense through Andrew Bynum in the post.

But at the very least Nash gives Bryant, Bynum and Pau Gasol the best floor spreading shooter in the game. As Jonathan Tjarks points out, the spacing in the halfcourt was the biggest problem for the Lakers in the playoffs against both the Nuggets and Thunder. The mere presence of Nash, even if he scales back his off the dribble offense in Year 2 and Year 3, will be worth the cost. The Lakers fell to 10th in offensive efficiency in the first season with Mike Brown on the sidelines, a drop from sixth in 10-11. There is little doubt that an offense with four talents of that caliber will be right there close to 110.0 points per 100 possessions.

While I have seen arguments stating the opposite, Dwight Howard is a far more logical fit at center to maximize the abilities of Nash than Bynum. There were very few possessions in which Bynum was used in the pick-and-roll last season, as he doesn’t have that type of lateral agility to be a real threat.

Howard has never played with a point guard anywhere close to Nash in this capacity and would be impossible to guard when you also have Gasol stretching the weakside big and then Bryant as a genius cutter still wanting to catch Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the scoring title. Howard doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be as much of a factor offensively as Bynum and will be a more efficient scorer. Howard’s previous career high in field goal percentage was 61.2% in 09-10 and it is realistic to see him get on the doorstep the 70% mark as Tyson Chandler did with the Knicks last season. Wilt Chamberlain had a FG% of 72.7 during the 72-73 season with the Lakers, the only season on the books above 70%.

Trading for Howard would more importantly cover the Lakers’ deficiencies on defense. Bynum has moments of excellence as a rebounder and shotblocker, but simply doesn’t compare to Howard in any meaningful way in terms of space covered. The Magic need the Lakers more than the Lakers need the Magic, there is little question about that, but the title chances undoubtedly uptick with Howard instead of Bynum.

The adjustment period with Nash will be fascinating, especially since Brown is nobody’s idea of the ideal coach for a team of this type offensively. For all involved, it would be preferable if Nash takes on a Peyton Manning-like role as point guard/offensive coordinator.

More intriguingly, the offensive evolution of Bryant will be the most interesting aspect of this acquisition. Bryant has long coveted a creative passing point guard as he wanted the Lakers to trade Bynum to the Nets for Jason Kidd. Bryant played an active role in putting together the Nash acquisition, so exactly how he envisions sharing a backcourt with a point guard like Nash (something he has never done before) will have a lot of nuance and will not be fully clear until January if not the All-Star break.

Bryant wants ring No. 6 and the scoring title, in that order, and Nash makes both things far easier. Bryant worked incredibly hard for his offense last season, something that seemed entirely unsustainable as he regresses physically. Watching Nash setup Bryant will be joy if the latter fully buys in, which should be less of an issue than some fear.

Nash's impact on a thin bench will also be interesting. The Lakers have clear depth issues and whether he can get questionable NBA talents to overachieve will really put this deal over the top.

The cost for the Lakers is merely four draft picks and a higher tax bill. When was the last time a Lakers' rookie made any type of real impact? The Lakers will presumably simply reload around Howard or Bynum when Bryant and Nash retire so those picks in the twenties will have little consequence in comparison to maximizing their chances over the next three seasons.

The only risk for the Lakers is if Nash is unable to play out his contract since a younger option like Kyle Lowry, who was traded to the Raptors less than 24 hours later would have been a longer-term solution.

Grade for Lakers: A-

Nash had an interesting gamut of choices in free agency, each with their own appeals.

The Raptors and Knicks would have made sense for him as a gateway to retirement in their individual way, but they both are a little too far away from being a title contender and apparently too far away from his children.

The Mavericks would have allowed Nash to reunite with Dirk Nowitzki eight years after he left for the Suns, but that roster needed too many additional pieces and the exercise likely would have descended into more of a farewell tour than a legitimate threat.

The Lakers are again a title contender, with or without a Howard trade, plus they afford Nash an hour flight from his children and the culture capital that legitimately matters to him.

The Lakers broke Nash’s heart in 2010 during the Suns’ final playoff run in the Western Conference Finals, but the Suns eliminated them in 2006 and 2007. Nash never played the Lakers in the playoffs during his Dallas days, and it was always the Spurs that eliminated Nash’s teams. That San Antonio uniform would have truly been the difficult one for Nash to feel okay putting on.

Grade for Nash: A

The Suns received a ton of criticism during the past two deadlines in holding onto Nash as he played out his contract. They were able to maximize the revenue opportunities of keeping Nash while also cashing out with four draft picks as they rebuild. The picks will likely have dubious value, but picks in the twenties have even greater value in this CBA since they represent young, cheap roster spots filled with potential.

Losing Nash to Toronto, for example, would have set back the Suns in comparison to this sign-and-trade.

Grade for Suns: A

2012 NBA Mock Draft, Version 4.0 (Draft-Day Edition)

The most profound single sentiment of the 2012 NBA Draft is that it is filled with players who frighten you to select and frighten you even more to pass upon. 

Players like Andre Drummond and Perry Jones are classic epitomes of this dilemma. Both players have the qualifying athleticism and skill potential to become perennial All-Stars, but are equally likely to have middling, underachieving careers.

Too many front offices are irrationally afraid of these type of boom/bust talents while also acquitting themselves of the blame when these picks do fail. The participation of teams in the bust equation has more to do with the way players were developed more than the actual choices on draft night.

No team with complete confidence in their player development and the strength of their system would pass on Drummond in favor of any player in this class beyond Anthony Davis. Front offices such as the Celtics, Spurs and Rockets would self-confidently embrace the challenge of drafting a player that was put on this earth with to become one of the best three NBA centers.

All of the players in the top-five, including Davis, have holes and limitations to their game of some shape or form. The bust rate for players with the profile of Drummond is undoubtedly higher than those of Bradley Beal, Harrison Barnes and Thomas Robinson, but that inherently is what makes centers so rare and so invaluable.

1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis  

The gap between Davis and the other two or three best players from this class will close significantly from its current position within the next 365 days, but he is a great talent, great kid and great franchise cornerstone for the Hornets.

2. Charlotte Bobcats: Thomas Robinson  

Robinson plays a position of abundance and doesn’t have All-Star potential, but he is a legitimate power forward that is capable of being a 10-year starter. The Bobcats are in ‘stop the bleeding’ mode and Robinson helps with that more than any other player available. Regardless of that necessity, selecting Robinson here instead of Drummond or the acquisition of multiple picks/young players for this slot is critically shortsighted.

3. Washington Wizards: Bradley Beal  

Do you realize that John Wall’s PER of 17.7 during his second season is virtually identical to Jason Kidd’s second season in 95-96 (17.8)? Now imagine the Mavericks stood pat at No. 6 in the 1996 Draft and Ray Allen slid one slot, followed by trading Jim Jackson for a veteran big man.

That didn’t happen and Kidd was traded in December to the Suns. This scenario will turn out much better as the Wizards will explode with an impossible to defend backcourt.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist  

Kidd-Gilchrist would be the appropriate pick for the Cavaliers even if they were picking second. This is a great fit for Kidd-Gilchrist and as talented as he is, he is a prospect where fit will determine the trajectory of his career. Assuming health across the board, the Cavaliers are a legitimate eight seed contender in 12-13 with the impact Kidd-Gilchrist can make on the wing with his defense and ability to score in transition.

5. Sacramento Kings: Harrison Barnes  

Barnes fills a position of need on a talented team that needs an all-around small forward to be the lynchpin capable of providing direction.

6. Portland Trail Blazers (from Brooklyn): Damian Lillard  

The Blazers would have killed for a point guard of Lillard’s capacity at any point during the previous decade. He has the game and demeanor to become a Rip City legend at the position.

7. Golden State Warriors: Andre Drummond  

The suspiciously public reluctance to draft Drummond from the Warriors is the great smokescreen of the 2012 Draft buildup. If anything has been clear about this ownership group in their short time at the helm is that they will favor big, splashy PR-centric moves over the safe, measured approach. Joe Lacob knows Danny Ainge, Daryl Morey, Gregg Popovich, etc. all would take Drummond in this scenario and that the risk of passing on Drummond for a player barely above replacement level far outweighs the risk of taking him.

8. Toronto Raptors: Dion Waiters  

There are several teams kicking tires on Waiters ahead of the Raptors, but this is the first slot that makes sense for him. Waiters won’t have any problems breaking down defenders off the dribble, a rare skill unquestionably, but he fits the mold of a 6th man due to his defensive matchup issues and potential for being a bad fit when he isn’t the best scorer on the floor.

No team in this area of the draft has a bigger need for a player like Waiters than the Raptors and his upside potential playing with talented offensive betas in DeMar DeRozan, Andrea Bargnani and Jonas Valanciunas will allow him to maximize his potential as an alpha dog.

9. Detroit Pistons: John Henson

The versatility of Greg Monroe allows the Pistons to pick between Henson and Tyler Zeller, both of whom would provide an excellent defensive fit.

10. New Orleans Hornets (from Minnesota via Clippers): Meyers Leonard  

Zeller is the more sensible, automatically productive fit beside Davis in the frountcourt. His ability to clog the lane and allow Davis to be the dominant off-ball shotblocker he is would be ideal. But how much better will Zeller be than an average NBA center?

With Leonard, the Hornets have the opportunity to select a center with the athleticism and game to be a top-5 player at the position.

The choice between the two can be compared to the Sonics selecting Jeff Green (Zeller) in 2007 and Russell Westbrook (Leonard) in 2008.

11. Portland Trail Blazers: Tyler Zeller

The Blazers have a terribly thin frontcourt behind LaMarcus Aldridge and Zeller is capable of playing immediately while doing exactly what they need him to since there is enough talent elsewhere to compete for a playoff return.

12. Houston Rockets (from Milwaukee): Perry Jones III  

The Rockets have been on a quest for a legitimate difference-maker throughout Morey’s tenure and here is a shot to get him at No. 12. Furthermore, if the Rockets don’t move from this slot before the draft, there is no player available that will have higher trade value following his inevitably remarkable Summer League showcase.

13. Phoenix Suns: Jeremy Lamb  

Lamb has enough game to be in the conversation far higher than this and has a more easily definable NBA path than Terrence Ross and Austin Rivers, who are also strongly in play.

14. Milwaukee Bucks (from Houston): Terrence Jones  

I was blown away by the transformation of Jones from his freshman season to his jack-of-all-trades sophomore campaign, particularly on defense. There was never doubt Jones had a highly promising point forward offensive game, but he also proved himself capable of consistently guarding NBA power forwards.

15. Philadelphia 76ers: Terrence Ross  

The Sixers figure to be in a state of flux this offseason and Ross would give them upside while also fill a perimeter shooting need immediately.

16. Houston Rockets (from New York): Moe Harkless  

This draft slot for Harkless is appropriate and is another player that will instantly have greater trade value following Summer League for a team looking to rebuild.

17. Dallas Mavericks: Austin Rivers  

Rivers perfectly fits the Jason Terry mold for Dallas and he also would be able to coexist defensively with a bigger point guard like Deron Williams as a best case scenario for the franchise.

18. Houston Rockets (from Utah via Minnesota): Marquis Teague  

The point guard situation is a tenuous one for the Rockets and there is no doubt Teague would have been the best available at the position in 2013 had he remained at Kentucky.

19. Orlando Magic: Jared Sullinger  

Our first real clue on what Rob Hennigan is thinking in regards to Dwight Howard will manifest with this selection. Sullinger couldn’t possibly walk into a better situation than to share a frontcourt with Howard, even if the said frontcourt would have the most fragile pair of backs in the game.

20. Denver Nuggets: Kendall Marshall

George Karl would have to stop the slide of a Tar Heel, particularly at a position of need.

21. Boston Celtics: Royce White  

I can’t realistically see White going before this slot and I also can’t realistically see Danny Ainge passing on him twice. White represents everything Ainge loves about the draft and why he has such an intriguing record.

I expect Ainge to package these two picks to move up, possibly for Perry Jones.

22. Boston Celtics (from Clippers via Oklahoma City): Fab Melo

The Celtics are still looking for a big bodied center to replace Kendrick Perkins and here he is and some.

23. Atlanta Hawks: Arnett Moultrie

Moultrie is extremely raw, but would be an interesting fit beside Al Horford in spurts if Josh Smith does leave if anticipated.

24. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Lakers): Festus Ezeli  

Ezeli is a classic end of the first round project center and would be a great fit within the franchise culture.

25. Memphis Grizzlies: Tony Wroten  

Wroten is a classic combo guard that can spell Mike Conley and also play beside him.

26. Indiana Pacers: Evan Fournier

The backcourt needs attention at both spots and every point guard capable of cracking this rotation is off the board, which leaves Fournier and an element the Pacers don’t currently possess.

27. Miami Heat: Darius Miller  

Miller gives the Heat a spot-up shooter on the wing while fitting into the Riley-mold far better defensively than someone like John Jenkins.

28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Andrew Nicholson  

The Thunder need more post offense and Nicholson would be an instant improvement.

29. Chicago Bulls: Will Barton  

The Bulls absolutely need a combo guard and Barton’s strengths (transition, spot-up shooting) are what they need more than his weakness (isolation scoring).

30. Golden State Warriors (from San Antonio): Quincy Miller

Miller doesn’t score in any single way exceptionally well and I see no chance of him becoming a starter, but has enough skill to become a solid wing at the end of a rotation due to his versatility in playing multiple positions

2012 NBA Mock Draft, Version 3.0

The 2012 NBA Draft is a week away and nothing is certain beyond Anthony Davis going to the Hornets with the first overall pick even though several scenarios are beginning to crystalize.

2012 NBA Mock Draft, Version 2.0 (Post-Lottery Edition)

Anthony Davis will become a member of the Hornets, but the draft is extremely fluid behind him with teams needing several weeks to sort through their unusual number of options even to the Bobcats at number two.

2012 NBA Mock Draft, Version 1.0 (Pre-Lottery Edition)

While every team in the lottery can bring their Anthony Davis jersey if they win the first overall pick, the gap between Thomas Robinson, Bradley Beal, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Andre Drummond is extremely narrow for me and highly intriguing.

Reviewing The 2012 McDonald's All-American Game

Shabazz Muhammad deservedly won the MVP award, but Alex Poythress had the most surprisingly outstanding game. How did the other players distinguish themselves?

Grading The Deal: Warriors, Bucks Swap Ellis, Udoh For Bogut

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Crazy Center Cash

If you're a seven-footer with any type of coordination, you will die a very wealthy man. This hasn't changed in the 2011 offseason and will not be changing in the future.

No Price Too High For Dwight Howard

No player has hit the trade market with as much value as Dwight Howard since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1975.

Flipping One Bell-Shaped Curve, Eliminating Another

By creating a system where there will be little disparity in team salary, the current bell-shaped curve of player salaries will be flipped on its head.

Follow The Money: Political Contributions Of NBA Owners

With wealth redistribution and market regulations renamed as revenue share and competitive balance, let's look at the political history of the NBA owners for some insight on where they may stand.

Individual Evaluations Of The 2011 Nike Global Challenge

Estimating conservatively, 20 high school players that will play in the NBA participated in the 2011 Nike Global Challenge. From Aaron Gordon and Andrew Wiggins to Jabari Parker, Nerlens Noel and Julius Randle, how did they fare individually?

2011 Nike Global Challenge, Day 3

In a highly competitive championship, Archie Goodwin and USA Midwest outlasted Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Bennett and Team Canada.

2011 Nike Global Challenge, Day 2

Notes on Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Aaron Gordon, Sim Bhullar, Nerlens Noel, Brandon Ashley and more from the semifinals.

2011 Nike Global Challenge, Day 1

Andrew Wiggins stole the show on Day 1 of the Nike Global Challenge as Canada and all three USA teams advanced to the semifinals.

Grading The Draft: 2011 Edition

This was supposed to be the draft of role players, so which teams did the best to find the right fits?

2011 NBA Draft, Version 5.0 (Day-Of Edition)

Kenyon Martin, Stromile Swift, Marcus Fizer and Darius Miles can pop the champagne like they’re the ’72 Dolphins because 2011 won’t displace 2000 as the worst class of all-time.

2011 NBA Mock Draft, Version 4.0

The 2011 NBA Draft is mere days away and even though picks 20 through 60 are always an unpredictable free-for-all, the impending anarchy of Thursday evening is even more menacing.

2011 NBA Mock Draft, Version 3.0

A lackluster draft class is being badly overshadowed by the most compelling NBA Finals in a generation, but with the big night less than two weeks away, the Mock Drafts must go on.

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