We have seen a whole lot of changes since the pre-Tournament issue of the Lottery Lowdown. March Madness gave us a few players to watch both this year and for 2014 while the Nike Hoop Summit and Combine helped clarify the picture in terms of athletic ability and positional versatility.

The Teams: Who has What (pre-lottery selection order)

1. Orlando Magic
2. Charlotte Bobcats
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
4. Phoenix Suns
5. New Orleans Pelicans
6. Sacramento Kings
7. Detroit Pistons
8. Washington Wizards
9. Minnesota Timberwolves
10. Portland Trail Blazers
11. Philadelphia 76ers
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (Toronto's pick via Houston)- Pick goes back to Raptors if it ends up in the top three
13. Dallas Mavericks
14. Utah Jazz 

The Player Pool: Winners and Losers of Early May

Even though the NBA Combine gets most of the attention when it comes to May, one of the other big events that continues to have a major impact is the Nike Hoop Summit. Beyond giving us a glimpse of the following year’s rookies who will play in college, the practices and game give draftniks an excellent chance to look at international players on the court with other high-level talent. This year’s stand out among draft-eligible players was Dennis Schroeder. He looked to have the combination of physical and mental abilities necessary to run an NBA team down the line which sent his stock sky-high and potentially got him a promise in the late lottery.

At the combine, Steven Adams showed a depth and refinement to his game not present during his single season at Pitt. While it is always worrisome when a player who has been underwhelming for a full year looks substantially better in a less realistic and small sample size like the combine, it helps Adams more than most because it shows his dedication to maximizing his ability.

Two of my bloodline favorites, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Shane Larkin, had huge Combine performances. Both player surprised with better than expected athleticism as well as an understanding of the game and attitude that reflects their understanding of what being a professional athlete is all about. Even though neither of them makes my Top 20 below, they are right on the cusp and should be able to contribute early on to their new teams while becoming more complete players with more coaching and experience.

The biggest losers were a pair of shooting guards that needed to justify their pre-season hype. Both Archie Goodwin and BJ Young have athletic ability and enough interesting components in their games to be impact players in the pros but completely underwhelmed during the 2012-13 collegiate season. I am someone who loves players with physical potential and need coaching, yet it gets harder to really risk anything on players when their flashes are deeper in the rear view mirror.

I continue to worry about the possibility of Trey Burke as a starting point guard in the NBA. While we already knew that his size will be below average for the position (especially with the new breed of hyperathletic guys entering the league), his agility was underwhelming and will make it even harder to create for himself and others. Only otherworldly shooters like Stephen Curry have made it work as a starting point guard without either of those tools and that is a big ask of Burke.

Finally, we saw both Cody Zeller and Kelly Olynyk show that they might have to play more PF since they do not have the size to play center full-time. Each of them has enough skill to be fine at power forward for times but true centers are a much rarer commodity and can have much longer careers. Without a much stronger outside shot than either player has shown thus far, they will really need to work to become an important player on a great team.

Preliminary Player Rankings of Draft-Eligible Players

Here is where the players stand as of now.

[NOTE: I include all draft-eligible players regardless of their likelihood to declare for the 2013 Draft. This provides a better measuring stick for everyone and also explains why the list runs to 20 rather than 14.]

1. Nerlens Noel, C/PF, Kentucky- The physical tools to be a special defender on the interior (and one who rebounds well for his activity as a shot-blocker) and has the potential to be solid but not spectacular on the offensive end. His weight is a concern and absolutely must be improved in order for him to reach that elite level as an interior defender but he appears to have the frame and work ethic to make it happen. Due to positional scarcity and a weak draft class, he sits at No. 1 despite the injury.
   
   Good Fits: Charlotte, Cleveland, and Phoenix
   Bad Fits: Detroit
2. Victor Oladipo, SG/SF, Indiana- Oladipo might be the best complementary perimeter prospect to enter the league since Andre Iguodala. His ability to defend the 1, 2 and 3 at the next level comes with an understanding that he cannot and will not be the offensive focal point. Victor’s time at Indiana has done a great job of preparing him for his role at the next level and just about every team could use a player like him even if you need other talent around him in order to thrive.
   
   Good Fits: New Orleans and Minnesota
   Bad Fits: Orlando and Sacramento
3. Rudy Gobert, C, France- Could a team really stash a player taken this high in the draft? Probably not even though Jonas Valanciunas serves as at least a partial precedent, so he likely will fall farther than his potential would suggest. I shudder to think at what Gobert can be with the right coaching and talent around him, particularly a PG that can maximize him on the offensive end. It would be legitimately hard to draft him this high since it will take some time for him to hit his stride in the NBA (potentially even the end of his rookie deal) but the juice should be worth the squeeze.
   
   Good Fits: Washington, Phoenix, Minnesota, and New Orleans
   Bad Fits: Detroit, Utah, and Portland
4. Alex Len, C, Maryland- Len stands out as a prospect that will benefit greatly from the increase in talent at the next level. Gaining teammates who can both get him the ball and take pressure off him offensively should reduce some of his faults and allow him to use his athletic gifts in a more productive way. Even though it was early in the season, dropping 23 points, 12 boards and four blocks on Kentucky while Nerlens Noel and Willie Cauley-Stein combined for 12, 15 and seven shows what he can do against high-level talent.
   
   Good Fits: Cleveland, Washington, New Orleans, and Minnesota
   Bad Fits: Sacramento
5. Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown- As has become quite the theme for this draft class, I am not sure if Porter’s game will translate perfectly to the NBA, but he has the ability to be a meaningful contributor even if he cannot transcend at the next level. Georgetown guys often underwhelm in terms of draft hype thanks to their system so that could work in Porter’s favor as well though I would have liked to see more defensive impact out of him.
   
   Good Fits: Washington, New Orleans, Cleveland, and Minnesota
   Bad Fits: Portland
6. Anthony Bennett, PF/SF, UNLV- The least valuable position in the NBA is a non-elite power forward that cannot defend centers because of how many people already in the league can play the part and how frequently new ones come into the fold. Bennett has shown substantially more depth in his game than most freshmen but also had the benefit of being older than most of them as well (he turned 20 on March 14). He makes up for a lack of height with a legit 7’1” wingspan and the unpolished tools to score in a variety of different ways, which has become a necessity for PF’s in the big leagues.  What makes Bennett so fascinating is that he could end up being a new era stretch four in the NBA because of his handle and shot with a little potential to even get some minutes at SF in a pinch. Bennett will contribute early but will need to improve both his strengths and weaknesses in order to stand out at the next level.
   
   Good Fits: Phoenix, Detroit, and Washington
   Bad Fits: New Orleans and Portland
7. Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany- Seeing Schroeder this high may be a surprise but his performance warrants it in this draft class. While the other draft-eligible PG’s have limitations that could move them to a different position or make a bench role the best fit, Dennis should be able to stick as a point guard in the NBA and eventually become a solid starter at a key position. He showed at the Nike Hoop Summit that he can run a team and create offense against elite competition (Andrew Harrison, the PG for the US team, will be a lottery pick in the much stronger 2014 class). Schroeder has the size and court vision to distribute along with the ballhandling and passing to create for others with a jump shot good enough to keep opponents honest. Schroeder still has plenty of work to do on cutting down turnovers, finishing and shooting the NBA three, but those are fixable issues with proper coaching and time.
   
   Good Fits: Utah, Orlando (not #1, obviously), Sacramento, Detroit, and OKC
   Bad Fits: Portland and Philadelphia
8. Glenn Robinson, SF, Michigan- It feels a good deal better to make a mistake on an elite athlete and that could end up being the case with Glen III. The son of the Big Dog is not just a physical specimen though, since he also has a pretty good basketball IQ and some intriguing potential as a scorer. That said, he needs to up his effort both mentally and physically to make the most of his ability.
9. Giannis Adetokunbo, SF, Greece- Some may call him this year’s “International Man of Mystery” since we have seen so little of his game thus far and that criticism is wholly justified. Giannis is special because of his phenomenal athletic profile (7’3” wingspan, respectable speed, and gigantic hands) and instincts for such a young age- he turns 19 in December of this year.  He can handle the ball reasonably well and has remarkable defensive potential. There is an additional risk since we have never seen Adetokunbo play against high-level competition, though it’s not like the other draft-eligible SF/PF’s (Poythress and Tony Mitchell’s freshman years come to mind) impressed when they had the chance. I would not even call Adetokunbo a boom/bust guy because he should be able to contribute even if the flaws in his game never get corrected. He just has insanely high upside while also being incredibly unproven.
   
   Good Fits: New Orleans, Detroit, and OKC
   Bad Fits: Washington and Minnesota
10. Steven Adams, C, Pitt- A legitimate surprise at the Combine because he showed depth to his game that we simply have not seen before. Building a jump shot that gets results takes time and effort, which also helps answer one of the biggest criticisms about Adams. He has an NBA body and plays a position where effort and size can allow a player to provide value to the team that drafts him during the rookie deal even as he develops.
    
    Good Fits: Minnesota, Washington, and Dallas
    Bad Fits: Utah and Detroit
11. Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas- McLemore is getting a ton of pub right now as a potential top-3 pick, but has the problem of being a dependent talent on offense while not having a major impact on the defensive end. His handle just does not reach the level necessary to make me believe he can generate shots for himself and others at the next level. People have compared him to former AAU teammate Bradley Beal who has come into his own at the end of his rookie year, yet Bradley did a better job creating his own offense than McLemore has at this point. Plenty of potential to be sure, but the holes in his game will make him a very limited player unless and until they can be closed.
    
    Good Fits: Minnesota and Philadelphia
    Bad Fits: Detroit, New Orleans, and Utah
12. Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky- Stop me if you have heard this before: Athletic big man who can defend NBA Centers but needs to get stronger and develop a deeper game in order to make an impact. In a class full of raw center, Cauley-Stein may just be the most raw. One of those guys whose stock could benefit from staying in college, but would have been better off developing in the league and getting to his second contract that much faster.
13. Shabazz Muhammad, SG/SF, UCLA- I have said for years that the only swingmen (shooting guards and small forwards) who should go high in the draft are those with a meaningful chance of being No. 1 scorers or elite defenders. The revelation about Muhammad's age raises real questions about his ability to get points on “fair” competition and his effort on the defensive end must become more consistent in order for him to become a starter in the league. He still has a great work ethic and the base to become a legitimate NBA player even though there are more questions than there were before.
    
    Good Fits: Minnesota, Portland, and Philadelphia
    Bad Fits: Utah, New Orleans, and Cleveland
14. Tony Mitchell, PF/SF, North Texas- In a draft full of middling prospects, it seems worth it to go after one of the biggest boom/bust guys we have seen in years. Mitchell is one of the best athletes in this class and had an absolutely horrendous season. That said, Tony did a good job in the U-19 World Championships where he was the per-minute rebounding leader over guys like Valanciunas and Patric Young who have more established reputations on the boards. If he can put it together, Mitchell could be an NBA starter and/or an important contributor on a strong team and provide both rebounding and defense that is hard to obtain and retain for each and every NBA franchise.
    
    Good Fits: OKC, San Antonio, and Indiana
    Bad Fits: Utah
15. Trey Burke, PG, Michigan- As was the case for me with Damian Lillard last season, I am not convinced that Burke will be a long-term starter in the pros. His physical profile will put him at a pretty great disadvantage on both sides of the ball against next level starting competition and all the heart in the world cannot make up some of those gaps. At the absolute worst he will be an awfully fun change of pace guy who gets spot starts and that has a meaningful value in today’s NBA.
    
    Good Fits: Detroit, Dallas, and Utah
    Bad Fits: New Orleans and Washington
16. CJ McCollum, SG/PG, Lehigh- After last year’s stunning defeat of Duke in the NCAA Tournament, McCollum started getting the draft hype he had deserved for a little while before after finally developing his game enough to be a legit NBA player. The challenge for CJ is that he does not appear able to run an NBA offense and also does not possess the size to be a reliable off-guard. Fortunately, he can score in bunches sufficiently to make him worth taking, especially since he also generates turnovers on the defensive end.
    
    Good Fits: Minnesota, Portland, and Dallas
    Bad Fits: New Orleans, Detroit, and Sacramento
17. Marcus Smart, PG/SG, Oklahoma State- As someone who loves analyzing point guards, there have been few that have given me more fits than Marcus Smart. He has a different physical presence than the freak PG’s that have come into the league recently because he is bigger (height and width) than most of them and also a little bit slower. His activity and desire to play defense is a big help and will provide value to teams even if he has more trouble getting to his desired spot on the court. In all honesty, we could see him more as a two guard defensively which may open up some different doors in terms of teams and fit with the bevy of guys who should be defending PG’s and playing off the ball currently in the Association.
18. Cody Zeller, PF/C, Indiana- Over the past year, Cody has suffered a little bit from Matt Leinart Syndrome, meaning that draftniks have had another season to tear down his game as an elite prospect in the public eye. The problem is that some of those concerns are legitimate since his short wingspan and slight frame will allow him to be exploited defensively at the next level by Centers while those same limitations could curb some of his talent on the offensive end. Shockingly, his agent tried to spin Cody as a power forward at the Combine which further illustrates Zeller’s potential problems playing the most valuable NBA position. He will need to show a strong shooting stroke to generate anywhere close to the value he had when perceived as a true center. Regardless, Zeller will still be a useful contributor who will make teams sweat when he is on the court.
    
    Good Fits: OKC, New Orleans, and Dallas
    Bad Fits: Minnesota and Portland
19. Alex Poythress, PF/SF, Kentucky- Since he was in high school, I have been rooting for Poythress to develop an offensive game that worked for a perimeter player since it would make him an absolute force in the NBA. Unfortunately, that has not happened thus far. However, his combination of size (6’8” or so with a 7’1” wingspan) and athleticism should allow him to be a disruptive force in the pros. His potential to guard both SF’s and PF’s makes him incredibly intriguing in a league looking for players with that type of ability.
20. Michael Carter-Williams, SG/PG, Syracuse- Despite not being sure that he can run an NBA team as a primary ballhandler or defend NBA point guards, MCW showed in Chicago that he can help out the team that drafts him in other fascinating ways. He has sufficient quickness and size to make SG’s sweat and can provide teams with another level of flexibility given his ball-handling abilities.
    
    Good Fits: Detroit, Portland, and OKC
    Bad Fits: Philadelphia, Washington, and Minnesota

The Indiana Pacers are in the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2004 after eliminating the New York Knicks with a 106-99 win at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Game 6 on Saturday night.

The Pacers were led by a different player in each of their four wins over the Knicks and in Game 6 it was Lance Stephenson’s turn.

Stephenson, who can be maddening to watch, scored a career-high 25 points on 9-for-13 shooting to go along with 10 rebounds. The New York native had 16 points in the first half and exploded in the fourth when Indiana pulled away in what was the most exciting game of the series.

How can the fifth-most important starter on a team be exasperating to watch? Consider this sequence: Stephenson bricked a three from the right wing, then stole the ball on the ensuing possession and converted an old-fashioned (not exactly something you’d call ‘Born Ready’) three-point play.  

In the early going it looked as though the Pacers could run away with a series-clinching victory, but the Knicks refused to go down without a fight. More than four minutes into the second quarter the Pacers held an 18-5 edge on the glass but only had a six-point lead. Indiana closed out the first half well to lead 55-47 after 24 minutes.

New York shot 35.4 percent in the first half and Indiana held a 25-15 rebounding edge. Uncharacteristically, the Pacers hit 50 percent of their shots. As we’ve come to expect, they turned the ball over eight times.

As the Pacers flirted with a finishing punch in the third quarter, the Knicks finally exploded from deep. Indiana did a great job of pushing New York off the three-point line and closing out on shooters all series, but they lost Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith over a 108-second stretch that saw the Knicks go on a 12-2 run. Shumpert and Smith combined to hit four-straight threes to erase a double-digit deficit and tie the game at 72.

The Knicks went 6-for-7 from deep in the quarter and outrebounded the Pacers by four as they took control of the momentum heading into the fourth period. Early in the fourth New York was winning the 50/50 battles, but Indiana owned the last five minutes. 

The fulcrum of the game turned out to be Roy Hibbert’s tremendous block on Carmelo Anthony with the Knicks ahead 92-90. The Pacers seemed to have all the energy after the rejection. Stephenson then went on a one-man run to push his team into the next round.

“That block, I think it spearheaded the run they made,” Anthony said at the podium after the game.

Hill Plays, But Isn’t Right

George Hill was active for Game 6 on Saturday night despite missing the last game after suffering a concussion on Tuesday night in Game 4. It’s hard to quantify what his presence meant to the team, but it was obvious that he wasn’t 100 percent.

He finished 2-for-10 and front-rimmed a number of shots, a sign of fatigue and weak legs, but Hill was a game-high +12. He did his job at the line (7-for-7), but went just 1-for-6 from deep (a shot the Pacers will need against the Miami Heat). By avoiding a Game 7, Hill will have some time to rest up and heal before the Conference Finals start.

Carmelo Takes More Heat

Carmelo Anthony seemed to bring all he could with New York’s season on the line, scoring 39 points on 15-for-29 shooting, but all you will hear is how he performed in the fourth quarter. He made just two of his seven attempts with four points and three turnovers with the game in the balance.

“I don’t think it was fatigue and they didn’t make any adjustments,” Anthony said when asked about his rough fourth quarter. “A couple shots were almost in. We got some great looks coming down the stretch, shots that when we take we normally make. We got those looks tonight. We got what we wanted in the fourth quarter, but they just didn’t go down for us.”

Anthony has been dealing with shoulder issues since the end of the regular season, and appeared bothered by them once again in Game 6, and he also turned his ankle in the second half of this one.

More of the blame for this loss belongs on Mike Woodson and the lack of a consistent supporting cast. He has had to hoist an amazing amount of shots just to get the Knicks to the sixth game of a second-round series. Anthony simply looked tired on Saturday night.

Questioning Woodson

A lot went wrong for the Knicks in the second half, but they looked great in the third quarter and received a number of clutch shots from Iman Shumpert and Chris Copeland. The duo combined for 22 points on 7-for-10 shooting after halftime, with Shumpert single-handedly bringing New York back in the game.

After Shumpert scored 16 points in the third quarter, he played less than seven minutes in the fourth quarter and didn’t attempt a single field goal. How can that happen? Anthony is your clear-cut No. 1 (and perhaps No. 2 option as well), but with the season on the line you must at the very least give the hot hand a few chances to extend his run.

Copeland brought great energy to the floor all series, but only got significant time in in the last two contests.

Woodson didn’t have a perfect roster to work with, but you have to question some of the decisions made down the stretch – including time management with the season ticking away.

Golden Five

It was fitting that the Pacers took the podium as a group after Saturday night’s closeout victory given the balance they provide. Consider this: Anthony led New York in scoring in all six games. Each member of the starting five led Indiana in scoring at least once against New York (Paul George did so twice).

That makes them hard to double defensively because any open player can get hot and take advantage of open looks. It killed the Knicks when they doubled-down on Hibbert in the paint and the perimeter combination of George and Hill didn’t even shoot well from the perimeter.

Quite simply, the only way the Pacers can threaten the Heat and advance to the NBA Finals is to receive offensive balance from their first five, defend the three, limit turnovers and get something substantial from their bench.

Concussion has become a polarizing medical ailment across the sports community in recent years. The four major sports have implemented a protocol when dealing with head injuries as alarming health consequences have been revealed and seen in retired athletes.

Just hours before they were to take on the New York Knicks in Game 5 of their semifinal playoff series on Thursday night, the Indiana Pacers learned that they would be without George Hill because of a concussion suffered two nights earlier. Hill, who took a number of hard blows in Game 4, reportedly suffered the head injury on a hard foul by Tyson Chandler.

Hill complained of a headache during the Pacers' morning practice session on Thursday and took the NBA’s required concussion test a few hours later. He failed and was forced to watch his team lose at Madison Square Garden from the dimly-lit trainer’s room.

Hindsight is 20/20 and a concussion is a serious issue, but you have to wonder when Hill began feeling the symptoms. Frank Vogel said Thursday night that the point guard felt symptoms “at some point over the last two days.”

As Mike Wells astutely reported, Tyler Hansbrough urged Hill to undergo testing for a concussion. Hansbrough dealt with vertigo during his rookie season after suffering one.

The NBA instituted uniform concussion protocol before the 2011-12 season, making this season the first full campaign of its existence. There are undoubtedly numerous concussions that go undiagnosed. A player must feel the right symptoms, disclose them to his team’s medical staff and then they must be deemed serious enough for testing. From player to player, pain levels vary and the male ego comes into play as well.

It’s possible that in this case Hill felt off on Wednesday, but decided to wait before informing any team employees. Indiana went into Game 5 with a 3-1 series lead and three chances to eliminate New York and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.

By my count, there were 13 diagnosed concussions in the NBA this season (including Hill and not including Harrison Barnes) that officially made their way onto a medical report. Darrell Arthur of the Memphis Grizzlies suffered two in less than three months, which makes him an interesting case going forward.

As you might expect, the wording of the league policy leaves a lot to infer. The Pacers have listed Hill as “day-to-day,” which makes sense given that the season is day-to-day in the playoffs. A player must pass a series of tests before returning to the floor, including a handful of non-contact and conditioning drills. There is a line in the rulebook that has alarmed many around the Pacers: “The process will likely take at least several days, if not weeks.”

Every case is different and all that means is that it’s impossible to determine when he will return. However, there is precedent for Hill to return as early as Saturday night, if not for possible games on Monday (Game 7) or Wednesday (Game 1 against the Miami Heat).

Arthur absorbed a blow to the head on Dec. 14, 2012 and initially had a “dental issue.” He was then diagnosed with what the Grizzlies called a “mild” concussion and missed the team’s next game. He was back on the floor three days later on Dec. 17, 2012. Arthur suffered a second concussion on March 3 and didn’t suit up again until March 22. There has been no indication that his quick return from the first concussion led to the second.

When looking at cases this season, I wasn’t concerned with the number of games missed by a concussed player, but rather the number of days they sat out. My sample size dropped to 11 cases because C.J. Miles of the Cleveland Cavaliers suffered a concussion on April 7 and never played another game.

Those players that failed a concussion test and returned this season – John Jenkins, Nikola Vucevic, Darrell Arthur, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Chris Kaman, Pau Gasol, Marvin Williams, Jeff Pendergraph and Anthony Davis – missed an average of 11 days.

Chris Kaman missed 27 days spanning January and February with a severe concussion, while Jenkins, Kidd-Gilchrist, Williams, Pendergraph and Davis all missed about a week.

It’s impossible to predict when Hill will be able to return to the floor – it could be Saturday, a few games into a potential series with the Heat or even the first game of the 2013-14 season – and to try and guess one way or the other is a losing proposition.

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