A few years ago I read how D1 programs were firing their head coaches at an alarming rate. In response, I wrote this piece which showed that coaching turnover has always been rampant at all levels of D1.

A few days ago John Gasaway emailed me and asked me a similar question about transfers. The perception seems to be that players today are much more impatient and much more likely to change programs. John wanted to know if this was really true or whether this perception was simply a product of the increased information at our fingertips.

It certainly seems like there are a large number of transfers. So far this year I have 432 players who have left their schools with eligibility left. 432 is larger than the number on Jeff Goodman’s summer transfer list, but remember that Goodman had a separate mid-year transfer list and there were a few mid-year transfers that occurred after his December list was revealed.

But it turns out that 432 is not a particular large or a particularly stunning number. Last year I hand-coded all the D1 rosters in order to predict the season for ESPN the magazine. And based on my hand-coding, 814 players left D1 programs with eligibility left. Part of the problem is that Goodman’s list does a fantastic job picking up players transferring out of high level programs, but getting information on players transferring out of small conferences can be virtually impossible. Thus for comparison purposes, it is probably more interesting to examine whether there are more players transferring out of major programs than has occurred in the past. For simplicity, I decided to pull out the 75 programs that will compete in the Power Six leagues next year and see how their transfer patterns have looked historically:

Players leaving with eligibility left (excluding NBA draft early entrants)
2004: 174
2005: 197
2006: 185
2007: 192
2008: 160
2009: 137
2010: 203
2011: 165
2012: 113 (through April 30^th)

I don’t believe that 2012 will be a historically low year for transfers. Instead, these numbers suggest to me that we don’t have the final number for 2012 yet. There will be more transfers throughout the summer. Many of these will happen for academic reasons or because of players doing foolish things (getting arrested), but I am confident that there will be more than 113 players leaving the Power Six conference teams by the time the summer is over.

On the other hand, keep in mind that only eight of the Power Six schools changed head coaches this year, the lowest rate of Power 6 coaching changes since 2009. And with so little coaching turnover, 2012 may well turn out to be more like 2009.

Also, keep in mind that I am measuring the number of players leaving these 75 schools with eligibility left. Technically, that isn’t the same thing as measuring the number of transfers. I happen to think it is the right comparison. That’s because we don’t know where many of the players on Goodman’s transfer list are going. Some of them might transfer to other D1 programs. Some of them might go to junior college. Some of them might decide to take a pro contract overseas. And some of them might stop playing basketball completely. We just don’t know. In my opinion, the only list we can construct for comparative historical purposes is a list of who isn’t coming back despite eligibility left.

But if you wanted a true list of transfers, you would almost certainly have to remove a few players from my historical table. For example, what do we make of Jai Lucas? Lucas played three years of college basketball. While he was a mid-semester transfer, he didn’t play basketball at all in 2008-09. Unless there is some weird NCAA rule I don’t understand (seems likely), I view Lucas as a player who left with eligibility left and he appears in the above table. Of course no one really thought Lucas was going to graduate from Texas and use the graduate school transfer rule last summer. At that point he had decided to play overseas. So I can understand arguments for excluding him. If you want to try to remove the Jai Lucas type players and produce a more accurate historical list of transfers, I am happy to share my data. Simply send me an email DLHanner@gmail.com. 

We all know there are different levels of intensity in sports. The fourth quarter of an NBA game is played with a different intensity from the second quarter. The NHL playoffs are played at a far greater intensity than the NHL regular season. Allen Iverson in practice has a different level of intensity than Allen Iverson in a game. But the Jordan Brand Classic took intensity to a new low level. If we are going to set the scale from one to 100, this event was a one.

That shouldn’t really matter since expectations for a game like this are something like three out of 100. But it still bugs me that you can get so many exciting prospects together in one place and fail to use them in an entertaining way.

How do we know that the game lacked intensity? First, no one was coaching to win. Every player in the game played between 17 and 22 minutes. All-Star games can be dull at times, but at least you would like to believe that in the last eight minutes, each coach will have the flexibility to put the hottest players on the floor.  In this game, playing time was apparently pre-determined.

Second, it seemed like the players were disinterested. Maybe it was the let-down after Shabazz Muhammad and Nerlens Noel announced their decisions earlier this week to attend UCLA and Kentucky, but both players seemed more passive than usual. Muhammad turned the ball over five times and was simply lacking his normal aggressiveness. Noel got his three blocks and was otherwise content to coast in the game. At one point Noel watched Anthony Bennett drive by him without much of an attempt at a block.

Third, it might be a pointless factoid, but I find it interesting that Anthony Davis wanted to wear Michael Jordan’s number in this game last year. This year no one chose to wear #23. Maybe people are right when they say this year’s class of high school seniors is missing a larger than life star.

Perhaps in a game so sloppy (48 total turnovers) someone got excited about a future prospect. But how do you evaluate players when all the baskets were scored in transition? Yes, Kentucky prospect Archie Goodwin showed incredible speed going from end-to-end. He set up future teammate Alex Poythress for a couple of nice dunks. And yes, JP Tokoto looked good in transition to open the game, which might make people excited to see him at North Carolina.  But as Paul Biancardi noted, Tokoto doesn’t have a jump shot yet. Such important distinctions were not meant to be evaluated in this game. The teams were a combined 7-for-33 from three point range, and Duke recruit Rasheed Sulaimon only managed 50% from deep because he banked in a three.

There were also plenty of unforced errors. At one point Providence recruit Ricardo Ledo threw the ball off the backboard in an attempt to get a crazy dunk. He whiffed on the ball. Then Houston recruit Danuel House attempted a windmill jam. It would have been great if he could have pulled it off, but he couldn’t.

Truthfully only one player shined in this game. Future NC State guard Rodney Purvis had a breakout performance thanks to his hustle on defense. Watch the highlights at 5:40 in the first half and you will see Purvis miss on a steal attempt, but dive back into the frame and still tip the ball out from behind. Purvis deserved a gold star for his effort in this game and that is why he shared the MVP honors despite playing for the losing East team. (Muhammad earned the MVP honors for the victorious West squad.)

Now there is such a thing as an inappropriate level of intensity. When Ottawa’s Matt Carkner pounded New York’s Brad Boyle in the NHL playoffs on Saturday, when Chicago’s Andrew Shaw was ejected for nailing Phoenix goalie Mike Smith, and when Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby flipped a helmet away from a Philadelphia player who was reaching for it, the NHL playoffs probably reached an inappropriate level of intensity.

And I am not saying that these types of games have to be filled with patient half-court offense or hyper-aggressive fouling on defense. But basketball All-Star games don’t have to be horrible.

Football All-Star games are a joke because it takes great timing and planning to execute a beautiful offense. Hockey All-Star games are a joke because elite offensive players always dominate and the goalies just get embarrassed. Baseball All-Star games are a joke because baseball has too much random chance.

But basketball All-Star games can be incredible fun. If you let the stars play major minutes and if you give the players something to play for, you can get quality basketball. Last week’s Nike Hoop Summit was a great chance to evaluate players and it was an entertaining game too.

So here is my advice to future organizers of the Jordan Brand Classic. Give the players something to play for. Have a player draft on the ESPN signing day special. (All the players were in the ESPN studios anyhow.) Or split teams up based on college assignment. Why not have the UCLA and Arizona recruits plays the UNC and Kentucky recruits with future college pride on the line? Instead we had UCLA’s Shabazz Muhammad and Kyle Anderson playing on different teams.

Or what about this scenario? Instead of two 10 player teams (which is far too many players for a meaningful game).  Why not have four teams of five players play in a mini-tournament with shortened 20 minute games. If you put UCLA’s Shabazz Muhammad and Kyle Anderson on a 5-player team and put Kentucky’s Nerlens Noel, Archie Goodwin, and Alex Poythess on a 5-player team, and let them battle it out for a full 20 minutes, I am sure you would see a much more realistic and entertaining level of competition.

As is, all I can recommend is that you burn this tape. If you are an NBA scout or insane college fan looking for a quick glimpse into the future, you can do better.

A lot of people have emphasized that John Calipari wins because of all his elite recruits, but the key is that he unlocks the potential of his players. Here are the offensive stats for all the RSCI Top 10 high school recruits since 2003:

If you play under Calipari you are going to play more minutes and be a more efficient scorer. Oh, and he gets his teams to play great defense too. So yes, Calipari gets the best players, but his teams win because they maximize their ability.

And that made the second half of the National Championship game somewhat painful to watch. Perhaps I should give Kansas more credit for playing outstanding defense (and they played really outstanding defense). But the second half of the title game felt more like Kentucky playing passively, rather than Kansas taking the game from them.

And when Kentucky was attacking, they were always a joy to watch. I thought the sequence of the game came at the 15:52 minute mark of the first half. Anthony Davis stole the ball, kicked it to a driving Marquis Teague who was followed by Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.  When Teague’s lay-up missed, MKG was right there for the tip-in. Then Tyshawn Taylor grabbed the ball and tried to beat Teague down the floor.  But Teague made up ground, beat Taylor into the lane, and slowed his momentum just enough that Anthony Davis could block the shot. Davis’ block pushed the outlet to Doron Lamb who raced for another lay-up at the 15:28 mark.  In 24 seconds, there were three trips down the floor, and at least five heroic and athletic efforts by Kentucky.

Kansas was a great team, and nothing should take away from their second half performances in this NCAA tournament. But from the moment Kentucky beat North Carolina in early December, this was Kentucky’s year. I’ve said for at least two years that John Calipari is the best coach without an NCAA title.  And now he has it.

Bill Self, “When you care so much it is supposed to hurt.” Self said this after the game and it is an incredible quote. As most of us who watch sports know, there is way more heart-break than joy. There are way more post-season exits than championship trophies. But would anyone have their team miss the NCAA tournament just to avoid the heartbreak?  Not in a minute.

What Off-Season?

My 2013 projections are now available. If everything goes according to plan I should update them next week after the first early entry deadline and after Nerlens Noel and Shabazz Muhammad announce their college destinations.

If you are sad that the season is over and you still want to see real games, don’t overlook the Nike Hoop Summit this weekend. Unlike the McDonald’s All-American Game, the Nike Hoop Summit focuses on only 10 elite high school prospects (playing against an international team) and it provides a much better chance to evaluate their game. The 2011 game featured some of the most important freshmen to play college basketball in 2011-12:

Here is this year’s US roster courtesy of the Nike Hoops Summit official site:

If you aren’t excited to hear where Muhammad and Noel go to college, watch this game and you might start to care a lot more.