Dec 17, 2014 3:23 PM EST
Everyone wants to make the Golden State Warriors fantastic start to the season about Mark Jackson and Steve Kerr, but the biggest change for this year’s team has been on the court. After averaging 18 points and 9 rebounds in 33 minutes a game last season, David Lee has played only seven minutes all season as he deals with a hamstring injury. This season and the 2012 Playoffs is about as close to a controlled experiment that you will ever see in the NBA.
It doesn’t matter whether it’s Jackson or Kerr. Without Lee, Golden State turns into a pure 4-out team and they become almost unstoppable. When Lee went down in Game 1 of their first-round series against the Denver Nuggets in 2013, everyone thought the Warriors were finished. They had lost their only All-Star! Instead, they went nova, blitzing a 57-win team in six games and giving the San Antonio Spurs everything they could handle in the second round.
The same exact thing is playing out again. With Draymond Green playing as a small-ball 4, the Warriors have four three-point shooters on the floor at all times. They space the floor really well, they have speed and athleticism at almost every position and Andrew Bogut towering over everything in the middle. A 4-out team with Bogut as the only big man and Steph Curry and Klay Thompson running the show from the perimeter is going to be hard to beat.
Lee gets his numbers - 18 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists on 53% shooting last season - but he does it in a way that destroys everyone else’s flow. Lee doesn’t play enough defense to be the only big man on the floor, which means Golden State can’t play 4-out with him in the game. When the Warriors have two big men on the floor, they become a much more conventional team which has to slow the ball and play inside-out in order to maximize Lee’s skill-set.
Lee is most effective as the second biggest man on the floor while playing in an era where many of the best teams only play one big man at a time. There are still teams like the Memphis Grizzlies that can succeed with two big men, but they play to their strengths - pounding the ball inside, controlling tempo and playing lock-down defense in the half-court. The fundamental problem with playing Lee is that he gives you all the spacing problems of a two-in team without any of the benefits, as he struggles to score over bigger post defenders like Zach Randolph and he has even more trouble stopping them on defense.
Lee’s exit is like unclogging a drain. All of a sudden, when Golden State is on offense, eight of the ten players on the floor are spread out around the three-point line. All that spacing makes it almost impossible to stick with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, since they can find the open man when the defense sends help. Golden State is playing the type of pure 4-out basketball that we haven’t seen in the Western Conference since the Seven Seconds or Less Suns.
If you look at the last few champions out West, every winner had a huge PF:
2008-2010 - LA Lakers - Pau Gasol (7’0 250) and Lamar Odom (6’10 240)
2011 - Dallas Mavericks - Dirk Nowitzki (7’0 240)
2012 - Oklahoma City Thunder - Serge Ibaka (6’11 240)
2013-2014 - San Antonio Spurs - Tiago Splitter (6’11 245) and Boris Diaw (6’8 250)
The Heat were able to get to the Finals playing pure 4-out basketball, but they barely survived series against Roy Hibbert and David West, much less some of the monstrous front-lines in the Western Conference. That’s the logic behind the construction of most of the top teams out West. The starting PF on all eight playoff teams last year were all 6’9+ - Tiago Splitter, Serge Ibaka, Blake Griffin, Terrence Jones, LaMarcus Aldridge, David Lee, Zach Randolph and Dirk Nowitzki.
There has been no team willing to take the spread pick-and-roll to its logical conclusion, not since Mike D’Antoni’s glorious revolution in Phoenix could never get past a 7’0 foot roadblock in San Antonio by the name of Tim Duncan. For the most part, teams in the West aren’t trying to play small. That’s why I assumed coming into the season that A) the Warriors would stick with Lee and B) it would ultimately doom their chances for winning the West.
Lee’s injury is really the best thing that could have happened to Kerr, since it took the tough but necessary decision out of his hands. There’s no way they can put him back in the starting line-up after the way they have started the season. In essence, the last three years were a holding action, where David Lee was fighting to hold onto his starting spot while a potentially great team was waiting to burst out at any moment. As soon as he got hurt or had to leave the line-up for any extended amount of time, this was going to happen. He may end up being useful to them as a 10-15 minute guy off the bench, but the days of him being a featured player in Golden State have come and gone.
Without Lee around to get in everyone’s way on offense and get lit up on defense, the Warriors have gotten off to the best start in the NBA, with a 21-3 record and a 16-game winning streak that ended in The Grindhouse on Tuesday. In terms of pure statistics, Golden State is as good a team as there is in the league. However, when you start playing the match-up game in the playoffs, it looks like their chances to win it all will come down to two questions.
1. How will the pure 4-out approach play out against the best PF’s in the West?
It almost ended up working in the 2014 playoffs, when Jackson was forced to go 4-out after Andrew Bogut was injured. After they were down 2-1 to the LA Clippers in the first round, Jackson moved Lee to the 5 and started Draymond Green at the 4. They averaged 101 points in Games 1-3 and 110 points in Games 4-7. However, in the end, though, the lack of rim protection and size on the defensive glass doomed them. Would it have been different with Bogut at the 5 and Green at the 4?
Golden State’s 112-102 victory in Chicago a few weeks ago was the best-case scenario for a 4-out team playing a 2-in one. Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson were able to take advantage of their size upfront, but they had no answer for Green at the three-point line. The floor was spread so wide that the Warriors were able to tear holes through the Bulls defense. When everything goes right, the math becomes overwhelming. Green scored 31 points and hit 7 3’s in that game.
Their 105-98 loss to Memphis was the worst-case scenario. Zach Randolph was able to bully Golden State around the rim, with 17 points on 12 shots. Green, meanwhile, was unable to make him pay on the other end, repeatedly coming up short on jumpers and shooting 2-11 from the field. The worry is that over a seven-game series, his legs are going to be worn down by all the wrestling he will have to do with guys like Blake and Z-Bo.
“Draymond is the heartbeat of the team,” said Steve Kerr after the Warriors win over the Mavs on Saturday. “He has guarded everybody - LaMarcus Aldridge early in the season, Anthony Davis last week. He just guards whoever he needs to, including on switches, when he’s handling PG’s or wings. Draymond is a huge part of our success and I think people are realizing that and he should get plenty of notoriety for his contributions.”
You can only tell so much from the individual match-ups in the regular season, since teams can alter their game-plans to focus on a match-up advantage over the course of a seven-game series. If Golden State ends up playing a team like Memphis (Z-Bo), the Clippers (Blake) or the Blazers (LaMarcus Aldridge) in the playoffs, it’s going to come down to which team can with the contrast of styles at the PF position and dictate the tempo of the game.
In theory, that type of series is where it would nice to have David Lee, but does anyone think he’s winning match-ups with elite PF’s? At least if you play Draymond and Barnes at the 4, you are going down playing your style instead of losing while pretending to be something you are not. And if you look at the way the NBA has been going over the last generation, you have to trust that the math will win and that the spread pick-and-roll will beat the post-up.
Where it gets really interesting is what happens if the Warriors play a team that wants to play 4-out with them.
2) Can someone beat Golden State at their own game?
Over the last three seasons, the Thunder and the Spurs have been the class of the West. They played in the 2012 WCF and the 2014 WCF and the only reason they didn’t play in the 2013 WCF is that Russell Westbrook got injured. Odds are, a team that wins the West this season is going to have to beat Oklahoma City and San Antonio. What makes those teams so dangerous in the playoffs is their versatility - they can play either 4-out or 2-in and still win.
The Thunder start Steven Adams and Serge Ibaka, but their most dangerous line-up is Ibaka at C and Kevin Durant at PF. This is what I mean by Golden State playing “pure” 4-out basketball - Oklahoma City could start Durant at PF all season and score all the points. Instead, they go with a more conservative defensive-minded line-up, with the idea that they can always go 4-out when they need to in the playoffs. The Ibaka/Durant tandem is an absolute nightmare match-up for the Warriors defense, since they don’t want Bogut on the three-point line.
The Spurs start Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter, but they can play 4-out with Boris Diaw at PF and Duncan at C. Two years ago, Diaw was one of the keys to the Spurs getting past the Warriors in the second round, as he had the quickness to play their perimeter game on defense and the skill to punish their lack of size on offense.
Even after winning a ring, Diaw is still one of the most underrated players in the world. In a one-game scenario, he can be as good as anyone. In the last nine months, he played LeBron James to a draw in parts of the NBA Finals and absolutely smoked Marc Gasol in the World Cup. He’s essentially a much bigger version of Draymond Green. If they face San Antonio in the playoffs, Green may find out, in the inimitable words of Lionel Hollins, that there’s always a bigger man in a prison.
Trying to leverage a mismatch on the perimeter against a guy like Zach Randolph is a whole different animal than trying to beat Kevin Durant and Boris Diaw at their own games. It’s not so much that Green has to outplay those guys 1-out-1, but that Golden State is no longer the faster and more skilled team on the floor in that match-up, the advantage they have had over everyone else all season.
As great a start as Golden State is off too, all roads in the West still go through the stretch of I-35 from Oklahoma City to San Antonio.
Dec 17, 2014 7:41 PM EST
As the 14-15 Euroleague regular season comes to an end, RealGM continues to present the ultimate positional rankings of the league's best players. In the fifth and final edition, we rank the elite point guards from one to ten.
1. Milos Teodosic (CSKA, Russia)
Statistics in 2014-15 (Euroleague): 17.4 points, 3 rebounds, 8.4 assists and 3.8 turnovers.
There have been multiple times when Serbian Milos Teodosic received criticism for underperforming in crucial games and not meeting the expectations after winning Euroleague MVP award in 2010. However, 2014 was the year when Teodosic made the leap and became one of the most spectacular players in Europe. The 27-year-old point guard averaged 13.6 points, 2.1 rebounds, 4.4 assists and carried Serbia to the final game of the 2014 FIBA World Cup. Teodosic also demonstrated great range from close distance while he was also making 48 percent of shots from beyond the arc. Teodosic continues his great play in Euroleague too, where, despite missing half of the games due to injury, he averages MVP-worthy numbers.
2. Sergio Rodriguez (Real, Spain)
Statistics in 2014-15 (Euroleague): 10.6 points and 5.9 assists.
Sergio Rodriguez was not only the best point guard in the league last season, but undoubtedly the most dominating player overall. Despite not starting in a single Euroleague game during the 13-14 season, Rodriguez won MVP while Real Madrid, which was one game short from winning the title, was the most impressive team throughout the whole season. Nevertheless, this season is a different story as Rodriguez and his team are no longer as unstoppable as they were last year. Rodriguez is not scoring as much as in 13-14, but so far he has been great at involving his teammates and organizing the offense. For example, Rodriguez leads the league in assists per turnover rating (6.7) as he dished out 47 assists while committing seven turnovers in nine games.
3. Nando De Colo (CSKA, Russia)
Statistics in 2014-15 (Euroleague): 14.9 points (95 FT%), 3.6 rebounds and 2.1 assists.
Nando De Colo, who missed the 2014 FIBA World Cup due to a fractured hand, spends a lot of time playing shooting guard this season and forms the strongest backcourt in the Euroleague with Milos Teodosic. Teodosic and De Colo combine to score 32.3 points, grab 6.6 rebounds and dish out 10.5 assists for the only undefeated Euroleague team, CSKA Moscow. De Colo’s game in 14-15 might become historical as he is also on his way to join the Euroleague 50-40-90 club. Following the ninth round of the regular season, De Colo's percentages are 57 from close range, 40 from beyond the arc and 95 from the free throw line.
4. Jeremy Pargo (Maccabi, Israel)
Statistics in 2014-15 (Euroleague): 12.4 points, 3.1 rebounds and 5.8 assists.
After spending the 13-14 season on CSKA’s bench and averaging five points in 15 minutes, Jeremy Pargo went back where he reached his career peak in 10-11. As he did four years ago, Pargo has a chance to demonstrate his outstanding athleticism, ball-handling skills and leadership. Pargo could be considered a serious candidate to win the Euroleague MVP award this year if he improves his three-point shooting percentage and becomes more consistent. For instance, in two regular season games against his former team CSKA Moscow, Pargo made only four out of 23 shots, while he scored in double figures in just four out of nine games this year.
5. Dimitris Diamantidis (Panathinaikos, Greece)
Statistics in 2014-15 (Euroleague): 5.4 points, 3.1 rebounds and 5.9 assists.
For the first time in his career, Dimitris Diamantidis averages more assists (5.9) than points (5.4) per game. In his first four Euroleague games, Diamantidis made only two field goals while recording 29 assists. The 34-year-old Panathinaikos symbol has never been an elite scorer, but it is obvious that his career now is in decline. Despite he can still run Panathinaikos’ offense and occasionally shine in a game or two, he averages career-low 5.4 points, makes career-low 25 percent of three-pointers and makes career-low 0.8 steals per game.
6. Marcelinho Huertas (FC Barcelona, Spain)
Statistics in 2014-15 (Euroleague): 9.2 points (50 3FG%), 3.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists.
The 31-year-old has been one of the Euroleague's most reliable playmakers for the past five years. As this is his contract year, Huertas slightly raised his statistical numbers - points from 8.2 to 9.2, rebounds from 2 to 3.3 and assists from 3.8 to 4.3 - while FC Barcelona traditionally remains among contenders to win the title. Last week’s game against Fenerbahce Ulker was one of the best in Huertas’ career as the Brazilian guard scored career-high 25 points in the overtime loss. No doubt, even at the age of 32, Huertas will be one of the most demanded point guards once he becomes a free agent in the upcoming offseason.
7. Sergio Llull (Real, Spain)
Statistics in 2014-15 (Euroleague): 11.1 points (44 3FG%), 2 rebounds and 4.6 assists.
Sergio Llull played an essential role for Real last seson, which started by winning 31 games in a row and was the most dominant team in Europe. However, this season Real does not seem to be unbeatable and Llull is not the one to be blamed for that. Same as last season, Llull starts games at point guard position, but spends a lot of time playing at two alongside Sergio Rodriguez, as he is a big threat from behind the three-point line (44 3FG% this Euroleague season). Lull averages almost identical numbers as in 13-14 and due to his quickness as usual he is capable to contribute more on offensive end of the floor than on defense.
8. Thomas Heurtel (Laboral Kutxa, Spain)
Statistics in 2014-15 (Euroleague): 12.7 points (55 3FG%), 2.8 rebounds and 6.7 assists.
The last four months for 25-year-old Thomas Heurtel were the best in of his career. Heurtel successfully replaced De Colo and became a starting point guard for France in the 2014 FIBA World Cup while he has also made the leap in Euroleague this season, which helped him to climb the ladder and become the eighth best point guard in our ranking. Heurtel, who averaged only one point and 0.9 assist in 2013 EuroBasket, stepped up in 2014 FIBA World Cup, where he averaged 12.6 points and 3.8 assists throughout last five games. One of the best ball-handlers in the Euroleague continues his great performance as he ranks third in assists (6.7) and fourth in three-point shooting (55 3FG%).
9. Daniel Hackett (EA7 Emporio Armani, Italy)
Statistics in 2014-15 (Euroleague): 14 points, 3.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists.
Daniel Hackett made a huge leap in his career last season, when he took the challenge to take Bobby Brown’s role for Montepaschi Siena. Hackett carried his team on his shoulders and helped them get three regular season wins while the point guard finished four regular season games with 24 performance index rating (PIR) points or more and was an absolute Euroleague leader in drawn fouls. After joining EA7 Emporio Armani, Hackett’s role decreased due to huge competition among backcourt players, but this year he is the most important player on a team, which already secured a place in Top 16. Hackett gets the most playing time of all EA7 Emporio Armani players (30 minutes) and leads the team in scoring (14), assists (4.3) and steals (1.1).
10. Carlos Arroyo (Galatasaray, Turkey)
Statistics in 2014-15 (Euroleague): 14 points, 1.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists.
Despite being 35, Carlos Arroyo still proves himself capable of playing 31 minutes per game as a leading scorer on a Euroleague team. For example, in week six’s game against Crvena Zvezda, Arroyo played all 50 minutes - regular time and two overtimes - without rest and scored a career-high 26 points. Moreover, Arroyo scored in double figures in 23 out of his last 27 Euroleague games and demonstrates that he has plenty left in the tank. Arroyo can be a dominant player if he gets enough freedom, but due to low shooting percentages, he would likely not be as efficient as he is now on a winning Euroleague team.
Dec 17, 2014 9:22 PM EST
Vivek Ranadive had a deal in place with Michael Malone to hire him as head coach before he even became owner of the Sacramento Kings. The unconventional way of hiring a coach before putting front office personnel in place should have foreshadowed with what has been unraveling the past several days for the Kings.
Malone was fired in his second season after a somewhat surprising 11-13 start in the rugged Western Conference. DeMarcus Cousins has missed the past ten games with viral meningitis and the team expectedly has struggled, dropping eight of those ten games.
With Cousins not in the mix, opposing teams have been focusing primarily on Rudy Gay—which has reverted Gay back to the inefficient player he has been throughout his career. Cousins commands so much attention down low that it creates floor spacing on the perimeter that often led to higher percentage shots for players like Gay and Ben McLemore. With Cousins on the court, the Kings were a plus 12.7 per 48 minutes.
Ranadive’s inability to allow the staff he hired to make basketball decisions will undoubtedly hinder the potential of the Kings. General manager Pete D’Alessandro was hired to work in concert with Ranadive in making personnel decisions. Several different occasions through Ranadive’s brief tenure as owner can attribute to the growing rift between him and Malone that eventually led to Malone’s dismissal.
Since his days with the Warriors, Malone was widely considered a defensive coach. On the other hand, Ranadive wanted the team to run and play at a faster pace, similar to their Reno D-League affiliate. Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Ranadive wanted Malone to instill a four-on-five defense—something his daughter’s youth team did and was written about in Malcom Gladwell’s “David and Goliath” book—where one defender would run back for easy cherry pick baskets.
Furthermore, Malone’s desire to re-sign Isaiah Thomas over the summer and hesitance of long-term extensions to both Cousins and Gay were overruled by Ranadive and his front office.
Even with the addition of speedy Darren Collison, the Kings do not have the proper team roster to run at a pace similar to the Warriors or Thunder. Malone was simply playing to the team’s strength of a pick and roll half-court scheme for the offense to run fully through their best player in Cousins. Additionally, Cousins post-up game improvement under Malone has been a huge reason for the team’s fast start this season.
Factoring in the lack of depth on the current roster, the unavailability of their best player, and the ultra-competitive Western Conference, the Kings were surely going to regress to the mean at one point or another. With the tense offseason pandemonium, Kings’ management were waiting for any excuse to terminate Malone, and with their recent slump, they seized that opportunity.
In their war room on draft day, Sacramento is featured by Grantland. Ultimately, they decided to pick Nik Stauskas over Elfrid Payton—one they may surely regret in the future. The Kings have a similar player to Stauskas in the more athletic McLemore, and Payton would have been a quality perimeter defender to fill the point guard void, as Thomas wasn’t expected to return. This was a simple objective call, but it appears that Ranadive is the driving force behind all decisions given how much he’s talking throughout the video.
In the past, Ranadive has seemingly liked to engage the media about his team. Since the ousting of Malone, Ranadive took two long days before he finally addressed the media. He compared the organization chaos to that of a Sousa marching band, and they needed to shift to a jazz band.
“We had a Sousa marching band, which was needed when there was chaos, but now we need to shift to a jazz band, where people can be individually showcased and improvised. What we need is a jazz director. I think that’s the kind of leadership moving forward.”
With past history that shows Ranadive controlling the organization top to bottom, it is quite ironic that Ranadive points out that he needs someone with creativity and that can improvise.
Other reports have come out that Ranadive did not directly speak to Malone about his termination, and Cousins found out about the firing over Twitter—rather unprofessional on all levels.
As talked about previously, new ownership tends to come in and try to run their respective teams as their own fantasy teams, and Ranadive clearly falls in this category. Until he realizes that the front office is employed to do their jobs in making basketball decisions, the Kings will be stuck in a form of chaos and uncertainty.
Dec 18, 2014
Like many European players before him, Evan Fournier benefited from having learned multiple roles as a young player and his versatility has become invaluable for the Magic.
Dec 15, 2014
From top to bottom, this should be an excellent week of non-national games featuring matchups of elite teams as well as some with compelling young talent.
Dec 11, 2014
There’s a lot of talent in New Orleans and it’s still very young. If the spread pick-and-roll is the future of the NBA, the Pelicans have most of the pieces in place to run that offense at a very high level.
Dec 10, 2014
DraftKings is offering RealGM readers a great opportunity to win a share of $50,000 by picking a fantasy basketball team for Wednesday's games.
Dec 09, 2014
Larry Brown basically has an NBA coaching staff trying to improve the prospects of marginal prospects in order to get them a fighting chance to get into the league.
Dec 08, 2014
Multiple appearances this week from the Warriors, Raptors, Cavaliers, Clippers, Pelicans and Thunder as you set your League Pass schedule.
Dec 08, 2014
As the Clippers grow and mature, a more formidable kind of team has emerged, one that stresses tough defense, spreading the court, and making the extra pass. Maybe not as flashy as Lob City, but more substantial, with the hope of playing deep into May.
Dec 08, 2014
Jonathan Holmes, Bryce Dejean-Jones, and Jerian Grant have shown that seniors can also use their experience to transform into NBA prospects. They aren’t just making the most of their respective situations, but thriving.
Dec 06, 2014
John Calipari’s team may eventually break the record for most players drafted in a single season, but that doesn’t mean they are unbeatable. Texas helped provide a formula despite their double-digit loss.
Dec 04, 2014
While the new CBA established a heavily punitive repeater rate, it also made getting there incredibly difficult. After the current season, the only way for the repeater rate to come into play is if a team paid the luxury tax in three of the four previous seasons.
Dec 04, 2014
Brad Stevens does nice guy about as well as anyone in the NBA, but his patience is wearing thin. Physicality has been one of Stevens’ favorite words as of late, a diplomatic way for the coach to harp on his team for being soft without creating a salacious headline.
Dec 03, 2014
The best predictor of who will win MVP for a given season is not the most valuable but rather the best player on a great team. Stephen Curry currently fits the criteria as the most probable candidate, but who else should join him?
Dec 03, 2014
Enter Draft Kings' $50,000 1-Day NBA fantasy contest for Wednesday's games with a $2 entry fee with an added challenge of beating RealGM's entry for the game to get your $2 back.
Dec 01, 2014
In a league where more and more brilliant ideas and minds are infiltrating it by the day, there is a continued push for the new, intricate ways to view the game. But as Gregg Popovich and the Spurs regularly remind us, sometimes the smartest people are in the NBA are the ones that remember to keep it simple.
Dec 01, 2014
Multiple appearance this week from the Bucks, Cavs, Heat, Mavs, Pelicans, Wizards and Thunder.
Nov 29, 2014
Vassilis Spanoulis, Rudy Fernandez, Andrew Goudelock, Juan Carlos Navarro and Keith Langford headline RealGM's list of the best shooting guards in Euroleague.
Nov 26, 2014
Joel Anthony has made clear to Stan Van Gundy his desire to remain within the new regime, aiming to re-sign with the Pistons and be part of a roster that thrives again in Detroit.
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