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What To Expect For The Mavs With Rajon Rondo

The Rajon Rondo trade came slowly and then all at once, as years of rumors ended in the span of less than a day, with the Dallas Mavericks coming from out of nowhere to grab him. On the surface, they didn’t give up a ton - Brandan Wright, Jae “The Beast” Crowder, Jameer Nelson, a first-round pick in 2015 (likely to be conveyed in 2016) and a future second-rounder - to get a former All-Star still in the prime of his career. However, there is a lot more to this trade than meets the eye.

1. The Mavs gave up a lot of value

Brandan Wright may have only played 20 minutes a night, but those were some valuable 20 minutes. His per-36 minute numbers were positively obscene - 17 points, 8 rebounds and 3 blocks on 75% shooting. Wright has a PER of 26.1 because the way the Mavs used literally broke the formula. They usually paired Wright with a stretch 4 (Dirk Nowitzki), which allowed him to play in a ton of space in front of the rim. Pretty much every shot he took was a lob or a dunk.

There were a lot of games this season where the starters played the other team evenly and then Wright came in the game and blew it open. He’s one of the best pick-and-roll players in the league and his combination of offensive efficiency and shot-blocking will be hard to replace. Without Wright, the Mavs will need to find a new backup center - whether it’s Greg Smith, Dwight Powell or Jermaine O’Neal - and they will need to re-think a lot of their game-plans for their second unit.

And while you never really knew what you were going to get from Crowder and Nelson on a given night, they were two of the best three-point shooters on this year’s team. The Mavs are going to need Devin Harris and JJ Barea to continue way out-shooting their career percentages from long range, as virtually none of the other perimeter players on the roster are catch-and-shoot guys. Just to give you an idea, this move increases Richard Jefferson’s playing time.

2) Despite how well they were playing, the Mavs needed to make a move

As you would expect from a team that gave two sub 6’0 guards - Jameer Nelson and JJ Barea - most of the minutes at PG, the Mavs perimeter defense was shaky at best, non-existent at worst. While they may have the No. 1 offensive rating in the NBA, they also have the No. 22 defensive rating and anyone that has watched Dirk Nowitzki’s teams in Dallas knew how that was going to end. The Mavs needed more balance and that was only going to come from changing the personnel.

Shaky perimeter defense was the primary reason why they have been struggling with the other elite teams in the West. Against teams the other top-9 teams, Dallas is 2-6, with both their wins coming over the Pellies and losses to the Suns, Rockets, Warriors, Spurs, Blazers and Grizzlies. In the loss to Phoenix, Eric Bledsoe had 19 points and 7 assists while Goran Dragic had 28 points and 13 assists. In their most recent win over New Orleans, Jrue Holiday had 30 points and 10 assists on 22 shots.

It was laughably easy for top PG’s to score on Dallas, which is kind of a problem if you expect to make any noise in a conference that features Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry, Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Damian Lillard and Mike Conley.

3) They could have made a much smaller trade

Most people around the team expected them to do something. Dirk isn’t getting any younger and the team is really good - if they are only one or two pieces away, there’s no reason to not at least give it a shot. Given how valuable future first-round picks have become, their 2015 pick could have been flipped into something good, even without including Brandan Wright. Here are a few names that have been bandied about as possible trade targets for the Mavs - George Hill, Iman Shumpert, Gerald Henderson, Wilson Chandler. All good players, all of whom could improve the team with their perimeter defense. None of whom would have disrupted the offensive flow on this team as much as a guy like Rondo.

4) The domino effect is what makes this trade so hard to predict

Rondo is an alpha male, ball dominant PG. Adding him to the mix changes the offensive roles of everyone on the team, particularly on the perimeter.

- Monta Ellis: In his first year and a half in Dallas, Monta has always been the dominant partner in the backcourt. Whether it’s Jose Calderon, Devin Harris or Jameer Nelson, the ball naturally gravitated into Monta’s hands and the Mavs other guard spent most of his time spotting up and playing off of Monta. Rondo has a gravitational pull all his own - watching these two ball-dominant, non-shooting guards attempt to co-exist should be one of the most fascinating sub-plots of the Mavs' season. It seems likely that Carlisle will stagger their playing time so that both get to dominate the ball and run pick-and-pops with Dirk.

- Chandler Parsons: He was just starting to get comfortable with his role in Dallas when the trade went down. Parsons has struggled at times playing off the ball next to Monta and Dirk and he hasn’t been a very consistent outside shooter. As a result, when his shot isn’t falling, he has had a hard time impacting the game. Parsons is probably best when he’s attacking the rim and creating shots for others, but that’s not going to be an easy sell given the number of quality players around him. If anything, Parsons needs to get his catch-and-shoot game going, since Monta and Rondo aren’t going to be the ones doing that. Ironically enough, he’s likely to be shuttled back into the secondary role he was trying to avoid when he left Houston.

- Devin Harris: No one is going to see his minutes impacted more than Harris, who was the Mavs' main option at the PG position, even if he wasn’t starting. He was having a career shooting year and he had developed a great rapport with Wright in the two-man game. It seems like he will serve as the bridge between Rondo and Monta, but with both those guys expecting to play a lot of minutes, there just might not be as much time for Devin as there was before. That goes double for JJ Barea.

When you look at the Mavs' perimeter rotation as a whole, what stands out to you are that they would all rather play with the ball in their hands - Rondo, Monta, Parsons, Harris and Barea. There are not a lot of guys in that group who have made a career out of spotting up off the ball. Dirk makes this more manageable, but the No. 1 thing to watch when it comes to integrating Rondo into the mix is whether other teams are able to shrink the floor against Dallas.

5) Monta vs. Rondo

As I mentioned earlier, the biggest flash point on this roster is whether these two will be able to co-exist. Rondo worked with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, but those guys were excellent three-point shooters. Monta, meanwhile, couldn’t even co-exist with Steph Curry. It’s a concern, even if it’s one that neither will have any interest in addressing over the course of the season. If the Mavs struggle at all over the next few months, expect a lot of focus on their relationship.

What adds fuel to the fire is that both players could potentially be free agents this summer. Rondo is an unrestricted free agent (although presumably he gave Mark Cuban some assurances about re-signing in Dallas before the trade was finalized) while Monta has a player option on a deal that’s only paying him $8 million a season, a little over half of what Parsons makes. Monta has said that money is no longer the primary motivator for him in terms of his career, so maybe he doesn’t opt out and this whole story becomes a non-issue. Money usually talks the loudest, though, so we will see.

If it does come down to Monta vs. Rondo, the biggest argument for keeping Rondo is that it should be easier to build a team around him. I went into this in much more detail earlier in the summer. The holes in Monta’s game - inability to shoot 3’s, run point or play defense - make it almost impossible to find an ideal backcourt partner. If you keep Rondo, you can sign a more conventional 3-and-D SG like Shumpert in the off-season and have a far more balanced line-up than almost any combination involving Monta.

6) The Jason Kidd Model

Seven years ago, Jason Kidd came to Dallas in much the same situation as Rondo. Kidd was an All-Star PG whose star had faded as his team had decayed around him. When he arrived, he didn’t appear to make a ton of sense with either coach or the personnel on hand. Within a year, they had fired Avery Johnson and started shuffling players around Kidd and Dirk. The commonality is the Mavs seeing an undervalued building block, grabbing him at a low price and figuring out the rest later.

The biggest change for Kidd between his time in Dallas and New Jersey is that he became a great three-point shooter. Kidd is the archetypal example of the elite player who finds his outside shot and extends his career another decade. You should never expect a player to add something to his game that late into his career, but if any player can do it, it’s an All-NBA PG with Hall of Fame talent and a great feel for the game. Kidd even credited Dirk with helping him become a better three-point shooter.

Even if Rondo’s outside shot never comes, the idea of adding an elite floor general with the size to control the game had to appeal to Cuban. He saw first-hand the effect the presence of Kidd had not only on the game but on the entire culture of the Mavs organization. Dallas has been looking for a player to replace all the different things that Kidd brought to the table since the day he left. Rondo is about the closest thing you are going to find to that in the modern NBA. Those are two PG’s who could think the game at an extremely high level.

7) Gambling on Rondo

Two and a half years ago, Rondo had 44 points, 8 rebounds and 10 assists in an ECF game against LeBron and Wade. In the time since, he has seen two of his mentors traded away for draft picks 5+ years into the future, torn his ACL, become part of a rebuilding projecting which includes a college coach and seen his name involved in an endless number of trade rumors. It would be understandable if he was not playing the best basketball of his life in that stretch. He’s still only 28, so the hope is that the old version of Rondo is still there.

Rondo seems like a textbook case of a guy who could use a change of scenery. The first time you get traded in the NBA is a scales falling from the eyes experience, no matter how much it makes sense on an intellectual level. After getting really comfortable in Boston, Rondo is going to be pushed out of his comfort zone and thrown into the fire of a playoff race. If anything can rejuvenate him, this experience should be it. If not, they didn’t acquire all that much for him and they can part ways in the off-season.

If you think of a PG like a race-car driver, Rondo is a guy who walked into the sport and was given a superior engine from Day 1. He didn’t have to struggle with inferior cars in the early part of his career - he was playing next to three future Hall of Famers. It was only in the last few years that he got to experience what life is like for the other half of the NBA, the one that you don’t see on national TV all that often. Now he’s right back in the drivers seat of an elite team and he’s playing for a chance to make max money in the off-season.

Rondo has been sitting on the sidelines for two seasons and the Mavs are giving him the keys to a brand new Cadillac. Whatever happens, it should be really fun to watch.

A Golden Parachute Of Epic Proportions

Danny Ainge transformed a struggling Boston Celtics’ team in 2007 with one aging superstar in Paul Pierce, a head coach in Doc Rivers that was falling short of his potential he would eventually realize, and a few young assets into a Finals winner in 2008, a Finals runner-up in 2010 and came incredibly close to another Finals trip in 2012.

The bill for that run came due when the Celtics were eliminated in the first round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs by the New York Knicks. But Ainge quickly crafted a golden parachute of epic proportions that June in deals with the Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Clippers. The Nets’ deal is the true masterpiece of these maneuvers and it could become a true all-time great depending on who is eventually drafted with those picks, which will have striking similarity to how the Lakers eventually landed Magic Johnson with the compensation from the Jazz for Gail Goodrich.

Ainge never had to “double down” or “mortgage the future” to sustain the Celtics’ run and he was able to sell off most of those critical parts for quality assets that will accelerate the rebuild and also give the franchise several huge swings at acquiring their next superstar caliber players. The striking thing about what Ainge has done here in dismantaling the team is that the Celtics have received more value in return than they sent out in putting it together.

What They Cost

Paul Pierce: 10th overall pick in 1998

Kendrick Perkins: 27th overall pick in 2003

Rajon Rondo: 21st overall pick in 2006 from Suns, acquired via trade of 2007 Cavs’ pick

Ray Allen: Jeff Green (5th pick in 2007), Delonte West, Wally Szcerbiak

Kevin Garnett: Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair, Ryan Gomes, Theo Ratliff’s expiring contract, Wolves’ own pick back in 2009 (Jonny Flynn at No. 6), Wayne Ellington (29th pick in 2009)

What They Were Sold For

Kendrick Perkins: Jeff Green, Nenad Krstic, Fab Melo (traded to get under luxury tax)

Ray Allen: Signed outright with the Heat in free agency in 2012

Doc Rivers: Clippers’ 2015 first round pick

Paul Pierce & Kevin Garnett: James Young (17th overall pick in 2014), Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries’ expiring contract, Kris Joseph, MarShon Brooks, unprotected 2016 and 2018 first round picks, right to swap picks in 2017. A $10.3 million trade exception became Cleveland’s 2016 first round pick, Marcus Thornton and Tyler Zeller. Keith Bogans became Dwight Powell and Cleveland’s second round picks in 2016 and 2017, along with a $5.3 million TPE.

Rajon Rondo: 2016 first round pick, 2016 second round pick, Brandan Wright, Jae Crowder, Jameer Nelson, $12.9 million trade exception

The Important Stuff

James Young

Jeff Green (who has played 4+ seasons and could be flipped for another asset)

Brandan Wright (who could be flipped to a contending team before the deadline, or re-signed in the offseason)

Tyler Zeller

2015 1st Round Pick (Clippers)

$12.9 million trade exception, which expires on Dec. 18, 2015

Unprotected 2016 1st Rounder (Nets)

2016 1st Round Pick (Mavs, if 8-30)

2016 1st Round Pick (Cavs)

2016 2nd Round Pick (Mavs)

2016 2nd Round Pick (Cavs)

Rights to swap 1st Rounders with Nets if a higher selection in 2017

2017 2nd Round Pick (Cavs)

Unprotected 2018 1st Rounder (Nets)

Evan Fournier Using Versatility, Rebuilding Situation To Maximize Opportunity

In his third NBA season, Evan Fournier is in the midst of a breakout year with the Orlando Magic. After starting just eight games over two seasons with the Denver Nuggets, he has started in every game he has played for the Magic this season.

The Denver Nuggets traded Fournier as part of a package for Arron Afflalo this past June and the early returns are tilting towards Orlando.

Fournier, 22, became a more important member of Denver’s rotation as the 13-14 season progressed, topping out at more than 27 minutes per game in April. In his final eight games with the Nuggets, he averaged 13.9 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.4 assists on 39.8% shooting.

Magic general manager Rob Hennigan saw something he liked in Fournier, who has become a value perimeter player under coach Jacque Vaughn.

“Evan has been really good for us,” Vaughn said. “He’s accepting the challenge defensively, which I have been really pleased with. His ability to guard two [positions]. He’s big for a guard so that gives us a great luxury as a team.”

At 6-foot-7 and more than 200 pounds, he can be deployed as a defender anywhere on the perimeter. Vaughn values that versatility, which comes on the other side of the ball as well.

“He’s done a lot of other things that he had done previously as far as shooting the basketball, having the basketball in his hands,” the coach added. “We will give it to him at the end of quarters. As another ball-handler on the floor he’s been really good for us.”

The ability to play multiple positions has become more common than it was a decade or two ago due an influx of European players. Fournier can execute anywhere on the court thanks to a development that was overseen by French instructors.

“It’s natural enough for me to play either position,” Fournier told RealGM of sliding between point and shooting guard. “My first two years as a professional in France I played a little bit of point guard, but it’s not my natural position. It’s basketball. You learn how to play all five positions in Europe. I may not be strong enough, but guys like me even learn big man fundamentals.”

Fournier has had a different head coach in each of his three seasons and Vaughn isn’t the first to use him away from his natural position. George Karl played him at the point during his rookie season when Ty Lawson went down with an injury, allowing him to play what was then the best basketball of his NBA career.

“My first year under George Karl I played the one because Lawson was hurt. That was actually when I started to play really good because I’m usually bigger and stronger than typical point guards,” Fournier said. “The two is my natural position, but if I can help the team by moving over that’s great.”

As a team the Magic are at a different stage of development than the Nuggets, giving Fournier a chance to play a ton of minutes as he develops his game. He has embraced the challenge through the first third of the season.

In close to 33 minutes per game, he is averaging 14.4 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists on 44.9% shooting. He’s shooting 39.3% from three and trails only Channing Frye (52) on the Magic in made threes (44).

“I think I’ve started the season strong. New team, new teammates and new system. More playing time also, so it has been all very exciting for me,” Fournier admitted. “Now we’re just trying to get better as a team since a lot of our best players have been injured. The main objective is to get better as a group.”

One of the injured players he is referring to is Victor Oladipo, who missed the first nine games of the season. Couple that with a rookie backup point guard (Elfrid Payton) and Fournier handled the ball a lot for the Magic early on. Vaughn is comfortable putting the ball in his hands and for good reason.

Fournier is committing just 11.3 turnovers per 100 possessions, the lowest rate of his career. Oladipo’s rate is 18.2 and Payton’s 22.0. Fournier has grown on the court in part due to his experience with the French national team this past summer.

“I had the World Championships, which changed a lot of my offseason plans,” Fournier said. “I was playing games all summer long with the French national team, which was a great learning experience. We won the bronze medal, which the best we’ve ever done. I’m very proud of it and it was just another way to learn. You can talk to Boris Diaw and Tony Parker and all these guys who have more experience.”

Like many European players before him, Fournier benefited from having learned multiple roles as a young player. As we talk, tape of the Boston Celtics, Wednesday night’s opponent, runs from a recent game against Philadelphia 76ers. 

“Look there,” he nudges me. “[Alexey] Shved just played the one, but he’s a two. Overseas when you grow up, when you’re young, you don’t play a fixed position. You play one, two, three, four. It makes things easier because you learn more about the game and you also get a lot of opportunities.”

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Non-National NBA Games Of The Week (Dec. 8-Dec. 14)

Multiple appearances this week from the Warriors, Raptors, Cavaliers, Clippers, Pelicans and Thunder as you set your League Pass schedule.

Clippers Starting To Roll

As the Clippers grow and mature, a more formidable kind of team has emerged, one that stresses tough defense, spreading the court, and making the extra pass. Maybe not as flashy as Lob City, but more substantial, with the hope of playing deep into May.

Seniors On The Rise

Jonathan Holmes, Bryce Dejean-Jones, and Jerian Grant have shown that seniors can also use their experience to transform into NBA prospects. They arenít just making the most of their respective situations, but thriving.

The Blueprint For Beating Kentucky

John Calipariís team may eventually break the record for most players drafted in a single season, but that doesnít mean they are unbeatable. Texas helped provide a formula despite their double-digit loss.

The Overhyped Specter Of The Repeater Tax

While the new CBA established a heavily punitive repeater rate, it also made getting there incredibly difficult. After the current season, the only way for the repeater rate to come into play is if a team paid the luxury tax in three of the four previous seasons.

Brad Stevens Appears To Reach Breaking Point, All But Calls Celtics Soft

Brad Stevens does nice guy about as well as anyone in the NBA, but his patience is wearing thin. Physicality has been one of Stevensí favorite words as of late, a diplomatic way for the coach to harp on his team for being soft without creating a salacious headline.

Handicapping The 2015 NBA MVP Race

The best predictor of who will win MVP for a given season is not the most valuable but rather the best player on a great team. Stephen Curry currently fits the criteria as the most probable candidate, but who else should join him?

Beat RealGM In Draft Kings' $50,000 1-Day Fantasy Contest

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Coach's Corner: Pop-ology

In a league where more and more brilliant ideas and minds are infiltrating it by the day, there is a continued push for the new, intricate ways to view the game. But as Gregg Popovich and the Spurs regularly remind us, sometimes the smartest people are in the NBA are the ones that remember to keep it simple.

Non-National Games Of The Week (Dec. 1-Dec. 6)

Multiple appearance this week from the Bucks, Cavs, Heat, Mavs, Pelicans, Wizards and Thunder.

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