As we move forward with “Amnesty 2.0” in July, we will see the fascinating possibilities that the provision brings even as the number of teams and players left dwindles with time. One fun component of the rule is that we know exactly which players are eligible for it and that number can only decrease over time since the players had to have been under contract with the same team before the new CBA. As such, any trades, extensions, or contract expirations thin out the list. 

The other thing to remember is that most of the benefit of using the amnesty provision comes from additional flexibility in terms of the salary cap- the only money savings owners get from using it come from any reduction in luxury tax payments and whatever a “winning” team bids for that player on amnesty waivers.

Atlanta Hawks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Al Horford

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Since the team traded all of its long-term contracts (except Horford) and potential candidates like Zaza Pachulia’s contracts expire this summer, the only player left for Atlanta to utilize the provision on is Horford. That is beyond unlikely.

Boston Celtics

Players Eligible for amnesty: Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Paul Pierce

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. After signing five different players to contracts over $5 million for 2013-14 this past off-season, the Celtics took all the incentive out of using the amnesty provision on Pierce in 2013.

Brooklyn Nets

Used amnesty provision on Travis Outlaw (December 15, 2011) 

Charlotte Bobcats

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Most likely amnesty decision: Tyrus Thomas in 2014. As of now, the Bobcats do not have enough salary on the books to necessitate making an amnesty move this coming summer. As such, the most likely play is to keep Thomas until the summer of 2014 when Ben Gordon’s contract is cleared from the ledger. As of now, Charlotte only has players on rookie deals and Brendan Haywood getting money then, so it could be the right time to strike.

Chicago Bulls

Players Eligible for amnesty: Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Carlos Boozer

Most likely amnesty decision: Carlos Boozer in 2014. The decision has become even clearer now, though the Taj Gibson extension could push the timeline up a little bit if the Bulls are feeling the pressure financially next summer. However, Boozer’s last year comes the same year that Luol Deng becomes a free agent, so a proactive Bulls team could make some FA/trade noise since they have less money on the books.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Used amnesty provision on Baron Davis (December 14, 2011) 

Dallas Mavericks

Used amnesty provision on Brendan Haywood (July 12, 2012)

Denver Nuggets

Used amnesty provision on Chris Andersen (July 17, 2012)

Detroit Pistons

Players Eligible for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva and Greg Monroe

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva

Most likely amnesty decision: Charlie Villanueva in 2013. It seemed like a foregone conclusion in 2012 and absolutely has to be done in 2013. I cannot see a tangible benefit to leaving his $8.58 million on the cap for 2013-14.

Golden State Warriors 

Used amnesty provision on Charlie Bell (December 11, 2011) 

Houston Rockets

Used amnesty provision on Luis Scola (July 13, 2012)

Indiana Pacers

Used amnesty provision on James Posey (December 12, 2011) 

Los Angeles Clippers

Used amnesty provision on Ryan Gomes (July 18, 2012)

Los Angeles Lakers

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Most likely amnesty decision: Metta World Peace in 2013. Since the Lakers have to decide about amnesty during the first week after the July moratorium, they will not have enough information on Kobe’s progress to amnesty him. Furthermore, they would only yield a big benefit if Dwight Howard leaves the Lakers and we likely will not know that at such an early stage in the process. Even though the Lakers continue to need a quality small forward in the worst way, shedding the final year of World Peace's onerous deal seems like the best play. The addition of Chris Duhon makes Steve Blake a slightly greater possibility but he still appears moveable via trade and provides fair value to the team.

Memphis Grizzlies

Players Eligible for amnesty: Zach Randolph, Mike Conley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Zach Randolph (in 2014)

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Shedding Rudy Gay’s big contract means that the Grizzlies do not have to amnesty anyone in order to avoid the biggest costs of the new luxury tax system. At the present time, the only salaries the team has on the books for 2014-15 are Randolph, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley Jr, Tayshaun Prince, Darrell Arthur and Tony Wroten. Add in a rookie or two and you still have a workable structure. At this point it feels more likely that Randolph would get traded than amnestied since he would still provide value to the team.

Miami Heat

Players Eligible for amnesty: Chris Bosh, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Joel Anthony, Mike Miller

Most likely amnesty decision: Joel Anthony in 2014. The reigning champs did not lose a single player from their amnesty list over the past year thanks to roster stability. Mike Miller’s health could end up making him the pick but Joel Anthony’s $3.8 million final season stands out since the Heat do not have a veteran shooter locked up for 2014-15 at this time. Look for one of the two of them to be shed then, though.

Milwaukee Bucks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Drew Gooden and Larry Sanders

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Drew Gooden

Most likely amnesty decision: Drew Gooden in 2013. At this point, Drew Gooden’s two remaining years are the only reasonable option left for amnesty purposes. Considering Brandon Jennings will get a major pay raise this summer and the Bucks will need any flexibility they can get whether or not they retain either Monta Ellis or JJ Redick, look for Gooden to go even though the team stands unlikely to benefit in any way other than cap room. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

Used amnesty provision on Darko Milicic (July 12, 2012)

New Orleans Hornets

Players Eligible for amnesty: No one

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: No one

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. By trading all three players eligible for the amnesty provision (Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza and Jarrett Jack), the Hornets became the first team to be assured not to use it this time around.

New York Knicks

Used amnesty provision on Chauncey Billups (December 10, 2011)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kevin Durant, Kendrick Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha, Nick Collison

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Kendrick Perkins

Most likely amnesty decision:  Not use it. We will have to see how Sam Presti handles the Kendrick Perkins situation but my read is that they will not utilize it after either of the next two seasons. Nick Collison would have a slight chance in 2014 if he were not so popular with the team and management.

Orlando Magic 

Used amnesty provision on Gilbert Arenas (December 9, 2011) 

Philadelphia 76ers

Used amnesty provision on Elton Brand (July 12, 2012)

Phoenix Suns

Used amnesty provision on Josh Childress (July 16, 2012)

Portland Trail Blazers

Used amnesty provision on Brandon Roy (December 15, 2011)

Sacramento Kings

Players Eligible for amnesty: John Salmons, DeMarcus Cousins

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: John Salmons

Most likely amnesty decision: John Salmons in 2013. Since Salmons’s deal is only partially guaranteed ($1 million) in 2014-15, the Kings would have some flexibility in the 2013 offseason when Evans can be extended and Cousins will be one year away if they cut him loose at that point. With new ownership looking to make a splash, having some extra money this offseason could be useful to the Kings.

San Antonio Spurs

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tony Parker and Matt Bonner

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Matt Bonner

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Bonner’s partially guaranteed 2013-2014 salary would be a possibility but appears unlikely at best.

Toronto Raptors

Players Eligible for amnesty: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Linas Kleiza, Andrea Bargnani

Most likely amnesty decision: Linas Kleiza in 2013. Utilizing amnesty on Bargnani would be too big an admission of defeat for management, though theoretically a change at the top coupled with more bad play could change the equation sufficiently to put Il Mago on the amnesty line. With that, getting a little bit more space in terms of the apron/tax line would be good for the Raptors if they are unwilling to bite the bigger bullet in the form of Bargnani.

Utah Jazz

Players Eligible for amnesty:  Derrick Favors

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. With only young buck Derrick Favors left as eligible to be amnestied, every conceivable sign points to the Jazz joining the Hornets in August 2013 as teams guaranteed not to use the provision.

Washington Wizards

Used amnesty provision on Andray Blatche (July 17, 2012)

NBA fans in Seattle feel very angry and disappointed following the NBA Board of Governors’ vote to keep the Kings in Sacramento, and rightfully so. Only a few months ago the Sacramento Kings moving to Seattle looked like a foregone conclusion. I have written on the Seattle-Sacramento-Kings situation a few times before (here and here), with the Cliffs Notes version reading that the only sensible solution is one where both Seattle and Sacramento have teams.

On May 15, 2013, the NBA Board of Governors voted by a 22-8 count to deny Chris Hansen’s bid to relocate the Kings’ to Seattle (while not voting on the proposed sale). While the Kings have since been sold to Vivek Ranadive’s group and will remain in Sacramento, and the story has been rehashed all over the web, the purpose of this article is to look forward, not backward. Before we do that, however, here’s some of what we’ve learned from the Kings situation:

- David Stern still harbors a grudge against Seattle.

- The NBA’s new edict to keep teams from relocating at all costs (conveniently instituted immediately after the Sonics moved to Oklahoma City) means relocation of another team to Seattle does not appear to be realistic anytime soon.

With all this being said, Sonics' fans should have hope, as many significant steps were laid for the return of the NBA to Seattle, which will occur sooner rather than later. Why the optimistic view? Here’s why:

1. The League Was Reminded that Seattle is a Fantastic NBA Market. The old adage out-of-sight, out-of-mind is based in truth. Well, Chris Hansen, Steve Ballmer and the rest of the Seattle ownership group importantly reminded the NBA that the Seattle market is simply too good to be left vacant. Five years have passed since the Sonics moved to Oklahoma City, and naturally with some time having passed, a Sonics-less NBA had been becoming more and more engrained in the NBA world. However, over the past few months, Seattle has forced its way onto the NBA radar in a big way. While the Kings will ultimately not move there, the talk of the Kings moving to Seattle for the past several months did serve a meaningful purpose in reminding the NBA loud and clear that Seattle needs to have its Sonics returned.

2. The Seattle Ownership Group & Arena Plan are Absurdly Strong. Let’s see, Steve Ballmer’s net worth exceeds $15 billion dollars.  That’s $15 BILLION DOLLARS! You think the NBA wants someone with such wealth and stature in the league? Me too. As for the arena, the design looks to be state-of-the-art, and upon obtaining an NBA team, not much remains as a roadblock to having the arena built. When viewing the proposed ownership group and arena plan together, very few existing NBA teams can match what Seattle has in place.

3. $$$$$. While the potential bidding war for the Kings didn’t quite happen because David Stern said so, the league owners were made well aware that the Hansen/Ballmer group would be willing to pay a pretty penny for a team. So hello expansion! Let’s assume a price tag of $600 million dollars for an expansion team - this would mean $20 million per owner. Yes, the owners would have to carve out another piece of the revenue pie to a new 31st team, but if you run the numbers (even accounting for the next TV deal increasing substantially), the $20 million up-front payment to each team should make this enticing to the owners, enough to allow the Hansen/Ballmer group into the exclusive club.

4. David Stern’s Remaining Tenure Can Be Measured In Months. No matter whom you ask, the response will be the same – David Stern is not a friend of the NBA’s return to Seattle. If you need any proof, listen to the first sentence out of David Stern’s mouth at the press conference following the relocation vote. But, from what we have seen so far from Adam Silver, his replacement in waiting, the new commissioner does not share the same icy relationship with Seattle. Further, Silver’s comments at the same press conference indicate an appreciation for the Seattle market and a genuine desire to get the NBA back to Seattle. It should be expected that Silver will look to carve out his own path as commissioner, rather than serve as Stern’s lackey. We won’t know for certain until Silver takes the helm, but all evidence points to Silver having a net positive impact on the NBA’s return to Seattle. Too bad the same thing can’t be said for David Stern.

So Seattle NBA fans, there are legitimate reasons to have hope. But, patience will be required. With all of this in mind, what exactly needs to happen in the meantime? Let’s break this into two groups:

Chris Hansen/Steve Ballmer:

The Seattle ownership group needs to focus on two key tasks. First, the group needs to maintain close contact with the league office, and most specifically, Adam Silver. The league is in the process of opening up negotiations with the TV networks for the next TV contract, and it’s not unreasonable to think that the new TV deal will be agreed within the next year or so. The NBA has stated on multiple occasions that it will take a close look at expansion once negotiations for the next TV deal are completed (not when the existing TV deal expires in 2016), so it may be as soon as one year before the league looks at expansion.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, the ownership group needs to continue dialogue with the other NBA owners. This is critical because it’s the owners that ultimately say yay or nay on expansion. Remember that the vote against the Seattle relocation was 22-8, not 30-0. If you disregard the Maloofs’ vote (they had a vote in the relocation), then you still have seven owners who were in favor of the move to Seattle. This is a very important piece of information to consider, as it means that the Hansen/Ballmer group has allies among the owners. Hansen/Ballmer need to continue to lobby these owners to help them with expansion. In addition, there are strong rumblings that a handful of other owners were in favor of the move, but were ultimately convinced to vote against the move by Stern. So within the BOG, there are owners who support Seattle, and the Hansen/Ballmer group needs to get them on board with expansion. If Hansen/Ballmer can get the BOG on board, expansion will happen, and thus, Hansen/Ballmer need to focus on gaining league-wide support from the owners for expansion.

Sonics Fans:

For the fans, the tasks at hand require less explanation. First, easier said than done, keep up the support. Admittedly, it’s hard based on what has transpired, but don’t give up the faith. The Sonics’ return is close to happening, believe it. And once the NBA does return, all of the sweat and emotion put into this cause will have been worthwhile. Second, Sonics fans need to do their part to keep the political climate in Seattle favorable to the NBA’s return and the new arena. For a starting point, there is an upcoming mayoral election, and Sonics fans need to galvanize the Seattle voters to keep an NBA friendly mayor at the helm of the city.

For a moment, I’m going to take off my journalist hat and put on my Sonics hat. Sonics fans, I’m one of you. I grew up with the team, and their run in the 1990’s was one of my most memorable sports experiences to date. Together we need to continue to fight for the Sonics’ return. We need to provide our support to the Hansen/Ballmer group. They’re in it for the long haul, and we fans need to be as well. Brian Robinson and company, keep up the great work at Sonics Rising. I encourage all NBA fans, not just Sonics fans, to take a look at the Sonics Rising page at SB Nation. As you will see, Seattle’s passion for the Sonics is very real. Quite frankly, the level of support is remarkable based on how the NBA has treated Seattle these past five years. I know the Kings process was disturbing on many fronts, and I’m not a fan of moral victories, but in this case, quite a bit was done in terms of furthering the return of the NBA to Seattle. I have no inside knowledge on this, but I do believe that the Sonics will be playing again in Seattle within the next five years, and that an expansion team will be announced within the next 2-3 years. We’re very close - just hang in there a bit longer, and we will be rewarded. And if/when you feel like giving up, think about the younger generation growing up in Seattle. They deserve the chance to grow up with the Sonics just as we did, and our perseverance will be worth it once our team finally returns.

Alright, to wrap up, there are many reasons to be optimistic about the Sonics return, despite what transpired with the Kings. Look forward, not back, and hang in there. The plan is very simple: at the next BOG meeting, Chris Hansen will march into the room and put a $20 million check on each owner’s chair, and that will be that.  j/k  But in all seriousness, it’s a matter of when, not if, for the Sonics’ return, and it will be oh so sweet once they do.  I’d love to hear from you if you have any comments. I can be reached by email at nhodjat@gmail.com and you can follow me on Twitter at @NeemaHodjat.

We have seen a whole lot of changes since the pre-Tournament issue of the Lottery Lowdown. March Madness gave us a few players to watch both this year and for 2014 while the Nike Hoop Summit and Combine helped clarify the picture in terms of athletic ability and positional versatility.

The Teams: Who has What (pre-lottery selection order)

1. Orlando Magic
2. Charlotte Bobcats
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
4. Phoenix Suns
5. New Orleans Pelicans
6. Sacramento Kings
7. Detroit Pistons
8. Washington Wizards
9. Minnesota Timberwolves
10. Portland Trail Blazers
11. Philadelphia 76ers
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (Toronto's pick via Houston)- Pick goes back to Raptors if it ends up in the top three
13. Dallas Mavericks
14. Utah Jazz 

The Player Pool: Winners and Losers of Early May

Even though the NBA Combine gets most of the attention when it comes to May, one of the other big events that continues to have a major impact is the Nike Hoop Summit. Beyond giving us a glimpse of the following year’s rookies who will play in college, the practices and game give draftniks an excellent chance to look at international players on the court with other high-level talent. This year’s stand out among draft-eligible players was Dennis Schroeder. He looked to have the combination of physical and mental abilities necessary to run an NBA team down the line which sent his stock sky-high and potentially got him a promise in the late lottery.

At the combine, Steven Adams showed a depth and refinement to his game not present during his single season at Pitt. While it is always worrisome when a player who has been underwhelming for a full year looks substantially better in a less realistic and small sample size like the combine, it helps Adams more than most because it shows his dedication to maximizing his ability.

Two of my bloodline favorites, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Shane Larkin, had huge Combine performances. Both player surprised with better than expected athleticism as well as an understanding of the game and attitude that reflects their understanding of what being a professional athlete is all about. Even though neither of them makes my Top 20 below, they are right on the cusp and should be able to contribute early on to their new teams while becoming more complete players with more coaching and experience.

The biggest losers were a pair of shooting guards that needed to justify their pre-season hype. Both Archie Goodwin and BJ Young have athletic ability and enough interesting components in their games to be impact players in the pros but completely underwhelmed during the 2012-13 collegiate season. I am someone who loves players with physical potential and need coaching, yet it gets harder to really risk anything on players when their flashes are deeper in the rear view mirror.

I continue to worry about the possibility of Trey Burke as a starting point guard in the NBA. While we already knew that his size will be below average for the position (especially with the new breed of hyperathletic guys entering the league), his agility was underwhelming and will make it even harder to create for himself and others. Only otherworldly shooters like Stephen Curry have made it work as a starting point guard without either of those tools and that is a big ask of Burke.

Finally, we saw both Cody Zeller and Kelly Olynyk show that they might have to play more PF since they do not have the size to play center full-time. Each of them has enough skill to be fine at power forward for times but true centers are a much rarer commodity and can have much longer careers. Without a much stronger outside shot than either player has shown thus far, they will really need to work to become an important player on a great team.

Preliminary Player Rankings of Draft-Eligible Players

Here is where the players stand as of now.

[NOTE: I include all draft-eligible players regardless of their likelihood to declare for the 2013 Draft. This provides a better measuring stick for everyone and also explains why the list runs to 20 rather than 14.]

1. Nerlens Noel, C/PF, Kentucky- The physical tools to be a special defender on the interior (and one who rebounds well for his activity as a shot-blocker) and has the potential to be solid but not spectacular on the offensive end. His weight is a concern and absolutely must be improved in order for him to reach that elite level as an interior defender but he appears to have the frame and work ethic to make it happen. Due to positional scarcity and a weak draft class, he sits at No. 1 despite the injury.
   
   Good Fits: Charlotte, Cleveland, and Phoenix
   Bad Fits: Detroit
2. Victor Oladipo, SG/SF, Indiana- Oladipo might be the best complementary perimeter prospect to enter the league since Andre Iguodala. His ability to defend the 1, 2 and 3 at the next level comes with an understanding that he cannot and will not be the offensive focal point. Victor’s time at Indiana has done a great job of preparing him for his role at the next level and just about every team could use a player like him even if you need other talent around him in order to thrive.
   
   Good Fits: New Orleans and Minnesota
   Bad Fits: Orlando and Sacramento
3. Rudy Gobert, C, France- Could a team really stash a player taken this high in the draft? Probably not even though Jonas Valanciunas serves as at least a partial precedent, so he likely will fall farther than his potential would suggest. I shudder to think at what Gobert can be with the right coaching and talent around him, particularly a PG that can maximize him on the offensive end. It would be legitimately hard to draft him this high since it will take some time for him to hit his stride in the NBA (potentially even the end of his rookie deal) but the juice should be worth the squeeze.
   
   Good Fits: Washington, Phoenix, Minnesota, and New Orleans
   Bad Fits: Detroit, Utah, and Portland
4. Alex Len, C, Maryland- Len stands out as a prospect that will benefit greatly from the increase in talent at the next level. Gaining teammates who can both get him the ball and take pressure off him offensively should reduce some of his faults and allow him to use his athletic gifts in a more productive way. Even though it was early in the season, dropping 23 points, 12 boards and four blocks on Kentucky while Nerlens Noel and Willie Cauley-Stein combined for 12, 15 and seven shows what he can do against high-level talent.
   
   Good Fits: Cleveland, Washington, New Orleans, and Minnesota
   Bad Fits: Sacramento
5. Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown- As has become quite the theme for this draft class, I am not sure if Porter’s game will translate perfectly to the NBA, but he has the ability to be a meaningful contributor even if he cannot transcend at the next level. Georgetown guys often underwhelm in terms of draft hype thanks to their system so that could work in Porter’s favor as well though I would have liked to see more defensive impact out of him.
   
   Good Fits: Washington, New Orleans, Cleveland, and Minnesota
   Bad Fits: Portland
6. Anthony Bennett, PF/SF, UNLV- The least valuable position in the NBA is a non-elite power forward that cannot defend centers because of how many people already in the league can play the part and how frequently new ones come into the fold. Bennett has shown substantially more depth in his game than most freshmen but also had the benefit of being older than most of them as well (he turned 20 on March 14). He makes up for a lack of height with a legit 7’1” wingspan and the unpolished tools to score in a variety of different ways, which has become a necessity for PF’s in the big leagues.  What makes Bennett so fascinating is that he could end up being a new era stretch four in the NBA because of his handle and shot with a little potential to even get some minutes at SF in a pinch. Bennett will contribute early but will need to improve both his strengths and weaknesses in order to stand out at the next level.
   
   Good Fits: Phoenix, Detroit, and Washington
   Bad Fits: New Orleans and Portland
7. Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany- Seeing Schroeder this high may be a surprise but his performance warrants it in this draft class. While the other draft-eligible PG’s have limitations that could move them to a different position or make a bench role the best fit, Dennis should be able to stick as a point guard in the NBA and eventually become a solid starter at a key position. He showed at the Nike Hoop Summit that he can run a team and create offense against elite competition (Andrew Harrison, the PG for the US team, will be a lottery pick in the much stronger 2014 class). Schroeder has the size and court vision to distribute along with the ballhandling and passing to create for others with a jump shot good enough to keep opponents honest. Schroeder still has plenty of work to do on cutting down turnovers, finishing and shooting the NBA three, but those are fixable issues with proper coaching and time.
   
   Good Fits: Utah, Orlando (not #1, obviously), Sacramento, Detroit, and OKC
   Bad Fits: Portland and Philadelphia
8. Glenn Robinson, SF, Michigan- It feels a good deal better to make a mistake on an elite athlete and that could end up being the case with Glen III. The son of the Big Dog is not just a physical specimen though, since he also has a pretty good basketball IQ and some intriguing potential as a scorer. That said, he needs to up his effort both mentally and physically to make the most of his ability.
9. Giannis Adetokunbo, SF, Greece- Some may call him this year’s “International Man of Mystery” since we have seen so little of his game thus far and that criticism is wholly justified. Giannis is special because of his phenomenal athletic profile (7’3” wingspan, respectable speed, and gigantic hands) and instincts for such a young age- he turns 19 in December of this year.  He can handle the ball reasonably well and has remarkable defensive potential. There is an additional risk since we have never seen Adetokunbo play against high-level competition, though it’s not like the other draft-eligible SF/PF’s (Poythress and Tony Mitchell’s freshman years come to mind) impressed when they had the chance. I would not even call Adetokunbo a boom/bust guy because he should be able to contribute even if the flaws in his game never get corrected. He just has insanely high upside while also being incredibly unproven.
   
   Good Fits: New Orleans, Detroit, and OKC
   Bad Fits: Washington and Minnesota
10. Steven Adams, C, Pitt- A legitimate surprise at the Combine because he showed depth to his game that we simply have not seen before. Building a jump shot that gets results takes time and effort, which also helps answer one of the biggest criticisms about Adams. He has an NBA body and plays a position where effort and size can allow a player to provide value to the team that drafts him during the rookie deal even as he develops.
    
    Good Fits: Minnesota, Washington, and Dallas
    Bad Fits: Utah and Detroit
11. Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas- McLemore is getting a ton of pub right now as a potential top-3 pick, but has the problem of being a dependent talent on offense while not having a major impact on the defensive end. His handle just does not reach the level necessary to make me believe he can generate shots for himself and others at the next level. People have compared him to former AAU teammate Bradley Beal who has come into his own at the end of his rookie year, yet Bradley did a better job creating his own offense than McLemore has at this point. Plenty of potential to be sure, but the holes in his game will make him a very limited player unless and until they can be closed.
    
    Good Fits: Minnesota and Philadelphia
    Bad Fits: Detroit, New Orleans, and Utah
12. Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky- Stop me if you have heard this before: Athletic big man who can defend NBA Centers but needs to get stronger and develop a deeper game in order to make an impact. In a class full of raw center, Cauley-Stein may just be the most raw. One of those guys whose stock could benefit from staying in college, but would have been better off developing in the league and getting to his second contract that much faster.
13. Shabazz Muhammad, SG/SF, UCLA- I have said for years that the only swingmen (shooting guards and small forwards) who should go high in the draft are those with a meaningful chance of being No. 1 scorers or elite defenders. The revelation about Muhammad's age raises real questions about his ability to get points on “fair” competition and his effort on the defensive end must become more consistent in order for him to become a starter in the league. He still has a great work ethic and the base to become a legitimate NBA player even though there are more questions than there were before.
    
    Good Fits: Minnesota, Portland, and Philadelphia
    Bad Fits: Utah, New Orleans, and Cleveland
14. Tony Mitchell, PF/SF, North Texas- In a draft full of middling prospects, it seems worth it to go after one of the biggest boom/bust guys we have seen in years. Mitchell is one of the best athletes in this class and had an absolutely horrendous season. That said, Tony did a good job in the U-19 World Championships where he was the per-minute rebounding leader over guys like Valanciunas and Patric Young who have more established reputations on the boards. If he can put it together, Mitchell could be an NBA starter and/or an important contributor on a strong team and provide both rebounding and defense that is hard to obtain and retain for each and every NBA franchise.
    
    Good Fits: OKC, San Antonio, and Indiana
    Bad Fits: Utah
15. Trey Burke, PG, Michigan- As was the case for me with Damian Lillard last season, I am not convinced that Burke will be a long-term starter in the pros. His physical profile will put him at a pretty great disadvantage on both sides of the ball against next level starting competition and all the heart in the world cannot make up some of those gaps. At the absolute worst he will be an awfully fun change of pace guy who gets spot starts and that has a meaningful value in today’s NBA.
    
    Good Fits: Detroit, Dallas, and Utah
    Bad Fits: New Orleans and Washington
16. CJ McCollum, SG/PG, Lehigh- After last year’s stunning defeat of Duke in the NCAA Tournament, McCollum started getting the draft hype he had deserved for a little while before after finally developing his game enough to be a legit NBA player. The challenge for CJ is that he does not appear able to run an NBA offense and also does not possess the size to be a reliable off-guard. Fortunately, he can score in bunches sufficiently to make him worth taking, especially since he also generates turnovers on the defensive end.
    
    Good Fits: Minnesota, Portland, and Dallas
    Bad Fits: New Orleans, Detroit, and Sacramento
17. Marcus Smart, PG/SG, Oklahoma State- As someone who loves analyzing point guards, there have been few that have given me more fits than Marcus Smart. He has a different physical presence than the freak PG’s that have come into the league recently because he is bigger (height and width) than most of them and also a little bit slower. His activity and desire to play defense is a big help and will provide value to teams even if he has more trouble getting to his desired spot on the court. In all honesty, we could see him more as a two guard defensively which may open up some different doors in terms of teams and fit with the bevy of guys who should be defending PG’s and playing off the ball currently in the Association.
18. Cody Zeller, PF/C, Indiana- Over the past year, Cody has suffered a little bit from Matt Leinart Syndrome, meaning that draftniks have had another season to tear down his game as an elite prospect in the public eye. The problem is that some of those concerns are legitimate since his short wingspan and slight frame will allow him to be exploited defensively at the next level by Centers while those same limitations could curb some of his talent on the offensive end. Shockingly, his agent tried to spin Cody as a power forward at the Combine which further illustrates Zeller’s potential problems playing the most valuable NBA position. He will need to show a strong shooting stroke to generate anywhere close to the value he had when perceived as a true center. Regardless, Zeller will still be a useful contributor who will make teams sweat when he is on the court.
    
    Good Fits: OKC, New Orleans, and Dallas
    Bad Fits: Minnesota and Portland
19. Alex Poythress, PF/SF, Kentucky- Since he was in high school, I have been rooting for Poythress to develop an offensive game that worked for a perimeter player since it would make him an absolute force in the NBA. Unfortunately, that has not happened thus far. However, his combination of size (6’8” or so with a 7’1” wingspan) and athleticism should allow him to be a disruptive force in the pros. His potential to guard both SF’s and PF’s makes him incredibly intriguing in a league looking for players with that type of ability.
20. Michael Carter-Williams, SG/PG, Syracuse- Despite not being sure that he can run an NBA team as a primary ballhandler or defend NBA point guards, MCW showed in Chicago that he can help out the team that drafts him in other fascinating ways. He has sufficient quickness and size to make SG’s sweat and can provide teams with another level of flexibility given his ball-handling abilities.
    
    Good Fits: Detroit, Portland, and OKC
    Bad Fits: Philadelphia, Washington, and Minnesota