 |
| RealGM Hoop Net |
|
| Search |
|
|
|
|
| Trade Checker ID |
| Draft Sim ID |
| Newsletter |
|
|
|
|
Authored by Brandon Hoffman - 4th June, 2009 - 12:45 pm
|
|
|
| Current Featured Columns |
|
Merry Christmas, Raptors Fans
The Raptors might not be playing good basketball right now, but there are plenty of things for Toronto fans to be thankful for this holiday season.
A Melo Behind The Superstars
Carmelo Anthony has never been one of the league's most efficient offensive players.
A Melo Behind The Superstars
Carmelo Anthony has never been one of the league's most efficient offensive players.
|
It?s been nearly a year since the Lakers suffered a 39-point defeat at the hands of the Celtics. With that loss still fresh in their memory, the Lakers entered the 2008-09 season with one goal: Win the NBA championship. Anything less and the season will be considered a failure.
No one expected the Orlando Magic to be here. The Magic won 59 games during the regular season, but were seeded behind both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics to start the playoffs, and were categorized by many as a soft, perimeter oriented team that lived and died by the 3-ball.
This may not be Lakers-Celtics, or Kobe-LeBron, but this year?s NBA Final features two evenly matched teams that are playing their best basketball at the exact same time.
L.A. is averaging 108.6 points per 100 possessions during the playoffs, while giving up 101.8 points per 100 possessions on the defensive end (plus-6.8 point differential). Orlando is scoring 107.5 points per 100 possessions, while surrendering 100.5 points per 100 possessions defensively (plus-7 point differential).
Both the Lakers and Magic run inside-out, motion-oriented offenses that are predicated on ball movement.
Orlando?s first option is to get the ball to Dwight Howard on the low block, where he can go to work on his defender, or draw a double-team and pass out to one of his sharp-shooting teammates. If Howard is unavailable, Orlando will go to high screen-and-rolls with Hedo Turkoglu as the ball-handler, and Howard or Rashard Lewis setting the screen.
Double Howard, and he?ll kick it out to Lewis, Turkoglu, Mickael Pietrus, Courtney Lee, or Rafer Alston for an open three. Leave Howard or Lewis on the screen-and-roll and Howard will cut to the basket for a dunk or Lewis will slip out behind the arc for an open triple. Let Turkoglu turn the corner and he?ll take advantage of a 4-on-3 situation by scoring the ball or creating for one of his teammates. Get the picture? Orlando is a matchup nightmare.
It?s possible to limit Orlando?s three-point attempts by staying home on their shooters, playing Howard one-on-one, and defending the screen-and-roll with only two players, but very few teams have the personnel to execute that strategy.
The Lakers are one of those teams.
Andrew Bynum has the length, strength, and athleticism to defend Howard one-on-one. And the Lakers have four frontcourt players who are 6-8 or taller who can defend the pick-and-roll and rotate to open shooters outside.
Look for Phil Jackson to defend Howard with single coverage for most of the series, but if Howard does too much damage, Jackson will surely alternate coverages by doubling Howard on the move and/or on the catch. Howard has become a much better passer, but he?s still susceptible to careless turnovers when he gets bottled up.
Derek Fisher will probably split time defending Alston and Lee, with Kobe Bryant defending Orlando?s primary ball-handler. Alston?s quickness could give the Lakers trouble, but he?s become a spot up shooter in Orlando?s halfcourt offense, and still tends to take too many chances in transition.
Trevor Ariza will start on Turkoglu after a strong showing versus Carmelo Anthony in the Western Conference Finals. Ariza seems to be gaining confidence by the minute, particularly on the offensive end, and possesses the length and athleticism to make things difficult for Turkoglu on the perimeter.
Rashard Lewis versus Pau Gasol may be the most intriguing matchup of the series. Lewis is capable of taking Gasol out on the perimeter or blowing by him off the dribble, while Gasol has the advantage down low. Jackson also has the option of going small and inserting Odom into the four spot opposite Lewis. Odom has the length, size, and mobility to stick with Lewis outside. The ?Candyman? is a much better defender than he?s given credit for.
Offensively, the Lakers will look to go to Pau Gasol in the post on the strong side triangle, or reverse the ball to Bryant at the weak-side pinch-post. Orlando is the best defensive team in the league and had quite a bit of success double-teaming Bryant on pick-and-rolls in their two regular season meetings with the Lakers, but the Magic haven?t faced an offensive team like the Lakers in quite some time. Philly, Boston, and Cleveland were isolation heavy teams with little to no low post scoring, which allowed Howard to shade toward the ball without being punished underneath.
The Lakers sport five offensive weapons at all times, and the triangle offense is a continuous sequence of movements that will keep Howard?s head on a swivel. Howard?s DPOY award was well deserved, but his defensive awareness will be put to the test against the Lakers.
Orlando does a tremendous job of preventing high percentage looks at the basket while chasing opponents off the three-point line. The Magic will concede the long two, which is the most inefficient shot in basketball. However the Lakers present a few mismatches of their own.
Lewis can?t defend Gasol on the low block. And both Gasol and Bynum will make Howard work on the ball, which could lead to early foul trouble. Ariza and Odom are the Lakers? X-factors. Ariza comes into the Finals shooting 55.8 percent from the field, including a scorching 50 percent from beyond the arc. Odom is shooting 51.9 percent from downtown. Ariza, Odom, and Fisher?s ability to stretch the floor with their outside shooting helps create the spacing that is essential to the triangle offense. Orlando is thought of as the better three-point shooting team, and rightfully so, but the Lakers enter the Finals shooting a higher percentage from long-distance (37.9 to 36.7 percent), although Orlando has taken 106 more three-point attempts (444-338) during the playoffs.
The Lakers have the advantage off the bench as well. Pietrus gave the Magic a big boost through the first three rounds, and comes into the Finals on the heels of a series in which he shot 47.2 percent from the three-point line, but Sasha Vujacic is capable of disrupting his rhythm. Vujacic is an active defender, who was effective for stretches versus Houston?s Von Wafer and Denver?s J.R. Smith. Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown?s athleticism will cause matchup problems for Anthony Johnson and/or Jameer Nelson, and Marcin Gortat will struggle to stay on the floor because he?s a non-factor offensively. Orlando is going to have to put points on the board to beat the Lakers.
Lee and Pietrus will likely split time defending Bryant. Pietrus was effective versus LeBron James for short spurts in the Eastern Conference Finals, but Bryant poses a different set of problems, and his supporting cast makes it difficult for opposing teams to overload the strong side. Further, Bryant makes his living off the long two point shots that Orlando concedes, and is attacking the basket and getting to the line at a season-high rate. Bryant attempted 12 free throws per game versus the Nuggets, and enters the Finals shooting 89.5 percent from the charity stripe.
Simply put, Bryant took his game to another level in the Western Conference Finals, and it just so happened to coincide with Jerry West?s comments about LeBron being a better player. West was quoted as saying that LeBron had ?surpassed? Kobe on May 18th. A day later, Bryant erupted for 40, scoring fifteen of his team?s final 23 points to lead the Lakers to a 105-103 Game 1 victory over the Nuggets. Bryant?s been on a tear ever since.
Kobe knows this is his best chance to secure his legacy, and reclaim the title as the world?s best player. Magic Johnson lost four NBA Finals. Larry Bird lost two. Bryant has never won a title without Shaq, and another Finals loss would bring his career total to three. I just don?t see that happening.
Playoff basketball is all about matchups, and the Lakers have the advantage at two of the five starting positions, off the bench, and own a slight edge on the sideline with Phil Jackson. In addition, I can?t help but think that the Lakers will want it more. Back-to-back Finals losses would shake the Lakers franchise to its core, while Orlando has been playing with house money since Game 7 of the Semifinals.
Prediction: Lakers in six.
Brandon Hoffman is a contributing writer for RealGM. To read more from Brandon, check out his blog at BallerBlogger.com. You can also email him at ballerblogger@yahoo.com or follow him on twitter.
|
