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Authored by Elrod Enchilada - 28th September, 2009 - 11:49 am
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Merry Christmas, Raptors Fans
The Raptors might not be playing good basketball right now, but there are plenty of things for Toronto fans to be thankful for this holiday season.
A Melo Behind The Superstars
Carmelo Anthony has never been one of the league's most efficient offensive players.
A Melo Behind The Superstars
Carmelo Anthony has never been one of the league's most efficient offensive players.
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There are two states for any NBA team: contender or in the process of attempting to become a contender. In the NBA this year there are three legitimate contenders in the Eastern Conference –Orlando, Cleveland and Boston – and two in the Western Conference—the Lakers and Spurs. A few teams are on the cusp in the West and one or two of them may be legit contenders come April 2010. None appear that close to the inner circle in the East. It would be a once-in-a-decade upset for any other team than Orlando, Boston or Cleveland in the East to reach the NBA Finals. Every other team in the East is, in effect, looking to 2011 and beyond to actually hope to win an NBA title, and conducts its personnel affairs accordingly.
In general, if a team is not in the inner circle of legitimate contention, its GM is singularly obsessed with becoming a legitimate contender. The best and surest route to contender status is to get a true superstar, as most NBA champions are built around a top-five player. Such was the obsession of Danny Ainge as he directed the Celtics from 2003 to 2007. Then he hit the jackpot, with Ray Allen and especially Kevin Garnett.
Once a team establishes itself as a legitimate contender, as the Celtics have been for the past two seasons, the GM’s job description shifts markedly. There are three jobs of descending importance before the GM, although they tend to flow into each other and are fuzzy at the edges. These three jobs are both complementary and antagonistic.
For hardcore Celtics fans, following Danny Ainge’s moves has been like watching a chess master, and this article provides a framework to understand the nature of the game he is playing.
Job One is of paramount importance: It is to do whatever you can to make the team as competitive and successful in the immediate season, to attempt to win a title when the window of contention is open.
At this point moves that would be absurd for a non-contender begin to make sense: overpaying a veteran to beef up the bench or trading a young player or a no. 1 pick to score a veteran who has a year or two left in the tank.
So it was that the Cs signed Rasheed Wallace, age 35, to a three-year MLE deal this off-season. There is a chance Wallace won’t be much of a player at 37, but the Cs desperately need what he brings to he table to effectively contend in 2010, so it was worth the generous package. Put another way, without Rasheed Wallace the Cs chances of winning an NBA title in 2010 would be much less than they are now. Indeed all the contenders listed above forked out for big-time veteran players this offseason in a manner that would have been illogical for a Memphis or Minnesota. These teams play first and foremost by the George Allen maxim that the only future that matters is the next 12 months.
There are limits to what a GM on a contender will do to make a team more competitive in the here and now. Spending a fortune for a bench player who is on the floor no more than 15-20 minutes per game can upset an owner, especially as most contenders are in or near to the luxury tax zone. Also a GM does not necessarily want to be stuck with a big long-term contract for a player who is on the north side of 30. So it was that Danny Ainge refused to give James Posey a four-year MLE deal in 2008. What Posey brought to the table as a back-up small forward was not worth that sort of money in Danny’s estimation, especially since his deal could be an albatross in three years as the team was in decline and Posey would like be a much-diminished player at 35.
That is why the Cs or any other contender would be unlikely to trade for Stephen Jackson, unless he would be plugged into the starting line-up. Jackson is a terrific player and would certainly improve the Cs bench, but he has a massive contract that runs through 2013, when he will be 35. His contract would kill cap flexibility in the years following the completion of the Big Three’s current max contract deals. And with the luxury tax, it is the same as paying a max contract guy. Most important, he would be paid an enormous sum for a guy who might only be on the floor 20 minutes per game.
That being said, contenders are more likely to splurge in the short term, and it is perfectly rational for them to do so. Indeed a non-contending team that spent money on players like Shaq and Rasheed Wallace like the Cavs and Cs have done would be insane.
Job Two for Danny Ainge, or any GM with a contender is to extend the window of contention by a few years, as the dominant superstar(s) age.
This is best done by bringing in younger players who can pick up the slack as the non-superstar core ages, at least for a year or two. Red Auerbach was brilliant at this. He completely turned over Bill Russell’s surrounding cast from the first championship in 1957 to the 11th and final Russell champion in 1969. Russ had at least three Hall-of-Famers in his supporting cast (and usually more than three) throughout his 13 year career.
Jerry Krause, too, deserves some credit for doing this is Chicago. The last three Jordan-Pippen champions had an entirely different supporting cast than the first three champions, and arguably it was better too.
R.C. Buford was magnificent at doing this in San Antonio; he completely turned over the roster surrounding Tim Duncan from the 1999 champion to the 2007 champion without ever slipping from contender status. He effectively replaced David Robinson with Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. Wow.
Mitch Kupchak did a brilliant job of retooling the post-Shaq Lakers around Kobe, though he had a few bumps in the road.
Most GMs stumble over Job Two. It is harder than it looks to freshen or improve the 2nd or 3rd through 5th and 6th best players on team while remaining a contender built around a stud superstar or two superstars. The draft picks are at the bottom of the first round and there is almost never any salary cap room to play with.
For Danny Ainge, the immediate key for Job Two is the continued improvement of Kendrick Perkins, Glen “Big Baby” Davis, and especially Rajon Rondo. Before the end of the 2010 season, they will be 25, 24, and 24 respectively.
Perkins has emerged as a superior defensive center – he defended Dwight Howard as well as anyone possibly could in the playoffs—and is perhaps one of the 12 best centers in the league. If he can elevate his offense another notch or two it might elevate him to marginal all-star status.
Glen Davis could either eat his way out of the league or he could become a good starting-caliber forward. Right now the evidence points to the latter outcome. Neither of these guys is going to become a superstar or probably even an all-star, but they are—and can become even more so—quality NBA players.
Most important is Rajon Rondo. His upside is within eyesight of superstardom. The 2009 playoffs provided his Charles Dickens moment, as Rondo was the best player on the floor – by far – in the Chicago series. In a few of the games his play – routinely producing triple doubles – was mesmerizing. He played at a level, if extended through a regular season, that would make him one of the 10 best players in the league. In the Orlando series, on the other hand, he was less effective and inconsistent, and nowhere near the best player on the floor. He appeared unable to assume the burden of being top dog. His weaknesses became more obvious, especially his dubious shooting. The Orlando-series Rondo is still a first-rate starting point guard, but a top 40 player, not a top 10 player.
Much of the Cs immediate success and how long the Cs window of contention in the Garnett-era depends upon how Rondo develops in 2009-10. If it is the Rondo of the Bulls series, and KG and the other geezers are at full health, the Cs chances of banner 18 are quite good. And if Perk and Big Baby improve over the next two or three years as well, the Cs would remain a contender until 2012, as the Big Three are in the process of becoming the Gray Three. Those are a lot of “ifs,” but none of them are outside the realm of reasonable outcomes.
There are limits to how much player development the Cs or any contender can do. Roster spots cannot be given to projects when there are distinct needs to fill right now. So it is that the Cs have been weighing whether or not to keep Lester Hudson, the 2nd round draft pick, or whether to sign a grizzled veteran to be the 3rd string point guard. On a non-contender, this would be a no-brainer. Hudson would be the call. On the current Cs, it is a more difficult decision. If Hudson can’t play this year he could be a real liability to the team if there are injuries to the other point guards.
Assuming Hudson is on the roster, there will be four youngsters at the far end of the bench, not in the rotation but being groomed for a move into the rotation and possibly a starting role in the next two or three seasons. These prospects include Hudson, Shelden Williams, Bill Walker and J.R. Giddens. Hudson and Walker are low-second round picks; Williams is a 2006 lottery pick-cum-minimum-salary vet who was dumped last year by both Sacramento and Minnesota; Giddens was taken at the end of the first round in 2008. All four of these players have intriguing athletic ability and skills. But the odds suggest that it is unlikely that any of them will become a quality starting-caliber NBA player. Following their progress will be a passion for many Celtics fans like yours truly, but is it is likely much ado about nothing. If one or two of them emerge as a real contributor by next season, it will be a big bonus for Job Two. History suggests if they haven’t forced their way into the rotation by a year from now, they never will.
At any rate, expect Danny to do his best to keep a fresh supply of young prospects on the roster and hope he gets lucky, and gets another Perk or Baby or Rondo, as a result. Danny is a terrific drafter, and note that Danny grabbed all three of the aforementioned players in the first round or in the second round of the draft. One suspects Danny will be reluctant to trade off future number picks to get a veteran to win a title in the current season, unless the deal is almost too good to be true. Draft choices, even low first-rounders, are one sure way to get talent.
Job Three for Danny is planting seeds for a post-KG, post-Big Three era.
As a GM, this will be his ultimate test. Can he maintain or return the Celtics to contender status once the Big Three and Rasheed are gone? Job Three is the hardest job and the greatest test of a GM. In NBA history only two GMs have successfully put together at least two entirely distinct championship teams for the same franchise: Red Auerbach and Jerry West. Red and West not only did it, their championship teams each won multiple championships in different eras. (Three eras for Red and two for West.)
For most GMs this is something to be worried about down the road, after the team has fallen from contention and is in full rebuild mode. There is not a great deal a contender can do to plan for many years down the road, but that does not mean that it can do nothing at all.
To give some sense of how Red always had Job Three lurking, consider that he traded starting guard Gerald Henderson after the 1984 championship to Seattle for a 1986 no. 1 draft choice. He basically was willing to take a starter off his here-and-now championship team with all his other starters in their prime to get a valuable draft pick for down the road. It is unlikely that not having Gerald Henderson cost the Cs the 1985 title to the Lakers, but it certainly did not help matters. And as all Cs fans know too well, Red’s brilliant plans blew up when Len Bias, the player Red grabbed no. 2 overall with Seattle’s pick, died of a drug overdose two days after the draft. Had Bias lived…
If we know anything about Danny, it is that he has always been a big picture guy. Although he is understandably most concerned with Jobs One and Two, he wants to do what he can without undermining the Cs chances in 2010 to improve the team’s prospects for the post Big Three era. On the one hand, this means hoping a young player like Rondo blossoms into a full-throttle superstar, good enough to be the best player on a championship team. If this happens, Danny can concentrate upon Jobs One and Two again. But it is not likely that Rondo will be this good.
The other keys are to attempt to get future no. 1 picks from bad teams so the draft can be used to score talent without having to be a lottery team yourself. That is getting harder to do, as bad teams put lottery protection on the draft picks to avoid getting hosed the way Red used to always do to short-sighted teams. Another key is to avoid having the payroll clogged up with a lot of dead-weight contracts carried over from the contending period. Managing the payroll to get under the cap it as soon as KG, Pierce and Ray are gone or on new deals with lower salaries is essential. If the owners are willing to frontload contracts to Rondo, Davis and Perkins so that they get paid more upfront and the salaries decrease over the years, the Cs can possibly be well under the cap by 2012 or 2013.
The dream scenario is probably to slip into the lottery no more than once and grab a stud, have cap-space to sign a great free agent, and have a veteran crew of solid players led by Rondo, Big Baby and Perk as well as some younger players through the draft to mix in. The more young talent on board, the better, because, among other things, these can be valuable trade assets.
At any rate, Danny has done Job One well this off-season with the signings of Rasheed and Marquis Daniels. Job Two is promising with the Young Three of Perk, Big Baby and Rondo. Job Three remains entirely amorphous, but always on the horizon for a Celtics fan. |
