Winning At The Margins
AP Photo Kevin Pelton, my former colleague at Hoopsworld, likes to say that the statistical revolution will not be televised. He?s wrong, of course, as any Seattle Sonics fan can tell you. The Sonics already employed Rick Cho ? who sees the value in statistical evaluation ? in their front office, but went ahead and hired basketball sabermetrician Dean Oliver as a consultant this season. Many factors have converged for the Sonics, but with the help of statistical tools, the Sonics went from 37-45 and out of the playoffs last season to a 27-9 record so far this year. That they?re doing it with the league?s tenth lowest payroll has to be at least a little disconcerting to the big spenders in New York, Portland, and Dallas. In a salary cap business like the NBA, there are twin goals for most franchises ? win games and make money. And probably not in that order. The Clippers? Donald Sterling, for example, realized he could turn profits each year whether his team won or not by keeping salary costs and other expenses low. Other teams, in the desperate pursuit of wins at any cost have spent obscene amounts of money and exceeded the league?s ?salary cap? by huge margins. The Knicks this season have a payroll in excess of $100 million ? more than double the league?s $43.87 million cap. The real test of front office skill is not in finding players to fit into the nearly unlimited budget of the Knicks, but to build a team that makes efficient use of the resources available. Since wins are the units of production for teams, one way of looking at front office expertise is to divide payroll by wins. Cost Per Win 1. Phoenix Suns $680,040 2. San Antonio Spurs $740,041 3. Seattle Supersonics $870,239 4. Cleveland Cavaliers $981,325 5. Washington Wizards $992,984 6. Miami Heat $1,001,589 7. Detroit Pistons $1,063,023 8. Sacramento Kings $1,087,493 9. LA Clippers $1,139,265 10. Charlotte Bobcats $1,213,070 11. Denver Nuggets $1,346,931 12. Houston Rockets $1,415,463 13. Chicago Bulls $1,441,765 14. LA Lakers $1,468,112 15. Orlando Magic $1,479,308 16. Utah Jazz $1,488,065 17. Memphis Grizzlies $1,517,667 18. Indiana Pacers $1,548,782 19. Minnesota T-wolves $1,665,076 20. Dallas Mavericks $1,699,031 21. Boston Celtics $1,714,962 22. Toronto Raptors $1,833,604 23. NJ Nets $1,896,540 24. Milwaukee Bucks $1,897,258 25. Philadelphia 76ers $1,909,770 26. Golden State Warriors $2,211,093 27. Atlanta Hawks $2,471,938 28. Portland Trail Blazers $2,484,539 29. NY Knicks $2,719,063 30. New Orleans Hornets $4,977,440 This sort of listing has its uses as a first cut. Phoenix, San Antonio and Seattle are among the league?s best teams, but have relatively low payrolls. They?ll rank high on any front office efficiency listing because they?re paying less than their competitors to earn more wins. But, there are fixed costs in the NBA, and there are levels of production below which almost no team ever falls. In addition to a salary cap, the NBA also has a salary floor ? every team is required to spend at least 75 percent of the cap on player salaries. The worst team in league history won just nine games, suggesting that a group of replacement level NBA players onto a single team would probably win at least that many games. The expansion Charlotte Bobcats already have eight wins this season, and their roster is comprised almost exclusively of ?who?s that?? players. As Pelton wrote in an article he published at Hoopsworld last season (find it here: http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_7543.shtml), these two elements ? fixed cost and a minimum level of production ? provide the basic ingredients for a more meaningful evaluation of front office efficiency. The concept is swiped from Doug Pappas of The Baseball Prospectus and it?s called ?marginal wins per marginal dollars?. If a team of replacement players earning 75 percent of the salary cap could theoretically win at least 10 games, then teams get value only for performing better than that, based on the amount they spend above the minimum. Here are the results for this season to date: Marginal Wins Per Marginal Dollar 1. Phoenix Suns $207,000 2. San Antonio Spurs $263,812 3. Seattle Supersonics $400,334 4. Cleveland Cavaliers $405,692 5. LA Clippers $419,676 6. Washington Wizards $420,259 7. Denver Nuggets $510,852 8. Detroit Pistons $519,438 9. Utah Jazz $524,329 10. Miami Heat $533,291 11. Sacramento Kings $618,266 12. Chicago Bulls $822,062 13. Houston Rockets $850,052 14. LA Lakers $955,636 15. Orlando Magic $969,981 16. Memphis Grizzlies $998,667 17. Indiana Pacers $1,007,473 18. Boston Celtics $1,145,766 19. NJ Nets $1,155,631 20. Minnesota T-wolves $1,158,919 21. Milwaukee Bucks $1,186,950 22. Toronto Raptors $1,217,453 23. Dallas Mavericks $1,336,449 24. Philadelphia 76ers $1,410,964 25. Golden State Warriors $1,502,556 26. Portland Trail Blazers $2,151,141 27. NY Knicks $2,512,677 28. Atlanta Hawks $2,906,998 29. New Orleans Hornets $20,583,951 Note that for this evaluation, I excluded Charlotte. As an expansion team, their salary cap is the same as the rest of the league?s salary floor. And Charlotte isn?t even spending that much. With team salary so low, they?re spending less than $160,000 per marginal win. This sort of economic consideration may seem odd to fans of a sports league. Most fans don?t care much whether the owner makes money ? the fans just want their team to win. But, the league has placed limits on how much teams can spend in pursuit of wins, and is seeking to impose even further limits in the ongoing collective bargaining agreement discussions. Economic considerations and sound fiscal management are essential for a good front office. Money spent unwisely has a ripple effect on the team for the duration of the contract. It siphons resources and hinders future moves that might help the team achieve more wins. The best run teams understand this, and manage their teams accordingly. Kevin Broom is a Senior Writer with RealGM.com. He can be reached at KevinBroom@RealGM.com
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