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When examining the future of the Oklahoma City Thunder, both their full potential and possible limitations, it is imperative to begin by looking at how Kevin Durant sensibly compares to other similar superstars.

The first thing that stands out about Durant is how amazingly efficient he is as a 6'10" player that lives primarily on the perimeter. Durant's True Shooting Percentage jumped from .519 as a rookie to .577 in his second season, which eclipsed LeBron James' jump (.488 to .554). Kobe Bryant has surpassed the .577 mark just once in his career (06-07) even though he came into the league shooting .544.

Looking at the best single-season TS% marks in history, it is littered with dominant big men, spot-up shooters and Charles Barkley. Michael Jordan's best TS% season ranks 175th, just two slots ahead of Kevin Martin's 06-07. Larry Bird's best ranks 200th at .612 and Chris Mullin might be the highest ranked pure wing player who worked for his own shot at least part of the time.

Barkley's career mark was .612, compared to .569 for Jordan, but Barkley had all of his .600+ seasons while in Philadelphia as a uniquely athletic power player before he went out on the perimeter with greater frequency in Phoenix.

The difference between Durant and those other legendary scorers could be that he is Brent Barry from distance, Rip Hamilton accurate from midrange and eventually a four or five possession per night low post threat when he becomes more Kevin Garnett wiry strong.

However, what makes his 08-09 season look a bit like fool's gold is the accuracy from distance, as he cannot be expected to continue shooting 42.2% from 3-point territory. Only 29 players have a career mark of at least 40%, with just seven over 42%. Furthermore, none of them other than Ben Gordon were lead scorers who created offense for themselves. Wally Szczerbiak, Peja Stojakovic, Allan Houston and Glen Rice were either primarily spot-up shooters or a second option. Ray Allen (ranked 34th) and Danny Granger (44th) are the two players most similarly akin to Durant and both are under 40%.

Durant's 3-point percentage dropped to 36% when defenses adjusted in March after his absurd 51.4% February. So that safely represents his baseline percentage, which is pretty darn impressive.

He can conceivably score 35 points per night (1), but little else of legitimate value other than rebound with above average frequency at the small forward position. I think it is a safer bet that Durant averages 35 per night in a season than average more than 6.0 assists per game in a season. I also think it is an even safer bet for Durant to average 35 than ever become capable of defending the game's above average wing scorers, or strong enough to adequately defend strong power forwards.

Durant has yet to emerge as a player that can create offense for other players with any great frequency and that is essential for a scorer to win games in the playoffs. He has averaged 2.5 and 2.6 assists per 36 minutes in his first two NBA seasons. As a passer, he compares far more closely to Carmelo Anthony (3.1 career assists per 36 minutes) than to Bird (6.0 career assists per 36 minutes).

Durant's career assist percentage is 12.8, which is light years away from the 27.8 that LeBron had as a rookie (topped out at 38.0 this past season) or even Bird's 18.5 as a rookie. Kobe, Paul Pierce and especially Dirk Nowitzki had similarly low assist percentages during their first two seasons and eventually saw an uptick to a level that matches their usage rates. Durant is so pure offensively in regards to everything else and so starkly driven to improve that it is not beyond the realm of possibility for him to buck his own trend here, similar to Rick Barry (2).

But it remains my prime concern when it comes to forecasting Durant's ceiling offensively.

My prime concern when it comes to forecasting Durant's ceiling overall is his defense.

I'll concede that the Thunder are significantly better offensively with Durant on the floor, even if the stats don't agree. During the 08-09 season, the Thunder scored 103.2 points per 100 possessions with him and 103.9 without him; but the 8.2 points per 100 possessions worse they were defensively is statistically too massive to ignore. Oklahoma City was a net -8.4 points worse with Durant than they were without him.

The -8.4 is the statistical equivalent of an iceberg.

I feel as though I have a fair and grounded opinion of LeBron and see him for where he is great and where he remains limited, but the absurdity of any kind of comparison between these two players after the 08-09 season is exposed by simply looking at that -8.4. In LeBron's second season, he was already at +9.4 and it wasn't until his Team USA experience when he began committing himself to a full consistent effort defensively. LeBron does more than a dozen things very well to impact the game and Durant is largely a two-outcome player (points and rebounds) right now.

As the 2009-10 season begins, my money says that this statistic will absolutely be the most fascinating storyline to watch because it will be the ultimate determination of where this franchise is heading. It must improve dramatically for Durant to be fairly grouped amongst the LeBrons, Wades, Kobes and Yaos, who typically are at a minimum of +10.0 for this metric.

The blowhards who have already called TKO on the Oden/Durant debate are embarrassingly premature in that assessment (3). A second season, 100% healthy Durant only had a +2.7 PER in comparison to a first season, 80% healthy Greg Oden.

Even if Durant never develops his all-around game to a point where he can unimpeachably join that elite group, there is a lot to like about Oklahoma City's future.

Sam Presti was named general manager just after the then Sonics received the very easy to decide second overall pick in the all-important 2007 lottery.

There is no doubt that the Thunder are a team built almost exclusively through the lottery, but the decision to go into a full rebuild by letting Rashard Lewis go via free agency and trading Ray Allen cannot be dismissed now as minor decisions. It was a bold move for a rookie GM to scrap his roster and immediately begin building young around Durant.

Durant with the second overall pick in 2007 was a no-brainer, while Jeff Green at five that year, Russell Westbrook at four in 2008 and James Harden at number three in 2009 were more difficult choices.

It is difficult to argue with any of these selections, but none are true home runs and for a little revisionist history comparison, Oklahoma City could instead have Joakim Noah, Brook Lopez and Ricky Rubio. Noah is the weakest upgrade, assuming he even is an upgrade over Green, but that says more about the weakness of the 2007 class since I view Green as the most problematic player of their big four.

Lopez would represent more longterm upside than Westbrook at a tougher position to fill, even though I'm most bullish on him than I am the other current supporting cast.

Harden felt like a safe, sensible pick given their need for a secondary scorer on the wing, but I would have preferred Rubio or Stephen Curry (the only situation where he would be worth a top-10 pick). I believe Rubio is capable of being a transcendent playmaker in the ways Durant falls considerably short of LeBron as a passer and Curry's perimeter shooting addresses an area of weakness they currently have.

To his credit, Presti has undoubtedly done well through the draft with who he did select, picking players that fill needs, complement Durant well and fit in with their culture. When Presti has taken chances, it has been later in the first round with Serge Ibaka and B.J. Mullens. I really like that strategy of going for higher risk, high potential draft picks in the 20s and he has even found some potentially invaluable role players in the second round with Kyle Weaver and D.J. White.

More impressive than anything else, Presti has already figured out what took Cleveland a few years too many; how to build an adequate supporting cast around their resident superstar. But Durant is different than LeBron in terms of skill set, so what kind of players would enhance and complement him best?

Spot-up shooters are always imperative for a team with a superstar that scores off the dribble, but physical defensive players are the biggest need.

Unlike both Durant and Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook had a net on/off of +3.6 during the 08-09 season. Both the offense and defense were better with Westbrook on the floor and he is quick enough to guard all point guards and physical enough to guard almost any wing player in the NBA. That is tremendously valuable given Durant's defensive liabilities, as well as Harden being an unproven defender coming out of a zone system at Arizona State. Westbrook was ranked 21st in PER during his rookie season, not far off from Rookie of the Year Derrick Rose and should become a perennial All-Defensive team candidate.

The two biggest issues separating Westbrook from the elite point guards are his abilities as a jump shooter and he must also reduce his turnovers. He is an efficient scorer when he knifes into the paint, but he shot just 22.2% from distance. Even though his best possible future would be to develop into a pure point guard with a perimeter shot, Westbrook's most realistic best projection offensively is as a slashing shooting guard. He has a better PER when playing off the ball as a shooting guard than he did at the point and this was why I thought drafting Rubio was the better play for the Thunder. His work ethic and unique athletic gifts make Westbrook capable of making a gigantic leap offensively still possible.

Green is a tweener in the mold of an Antawn Jamison and was ranked just 45th in PER amongst power forwards during the 08-09 season. He was just barely ahead of rookie Jason Thompson and trailed teammate Nick Collison as well as Andray Blatche. He took a significant step forward in per-minute production from his rookie season, but second season's from David West (11.1) and Caron Butler (10.7) are the only recent big men All-Stars who can't beat Green's 13.9. Most All-Star players at that position were already pushing 20.0 or better by the end of their second season.

Rebounding is not a strength of Green's, with a rebound rate of 10.4, which needs to improve for him to not be considered a liability at power forward. Shotblocking is also where Green gives away a lot, as he blocked 0.55 shots per 48 minutes (36th amongst qualified power forwards), which is less than Matt Bonner, Rashard Lewis, Troy Murphy and just barely above notoriously defensively challenged players like Al Harrington, Antawn Jamison and David Lee.

Green's most pronounced saving grace is his perimeter shot, as he shot an excellent 38.9% from beyond the arc and could have a similar face-up game as West, with a Murphy-like ability to stretch the floor to 3-point land. Green is a non-traditional, utility power forward that does a bit of everything well and must continue to be an effective perimeter shooter to justify his deficiencies in the paint.

As far as Harden, he is an NBA unknown but was a tremendously efficient scorer in his two seasons in the Pac-10. He had a True Shooting Percentage of 61% and 63%, which actually beats Durant's numbers at Texas. He is also a gifted passer and combining with Westbrook in the backcourt gives them nice size that will be difficult for teams with smaller point guards to defend. Harden should have a competent percentage from distance and should hold his own defensively, but neither one of those aspects can be considered a strength. I see him developing into a steadier J.R. Smith or a more efficiently used Ronnie Brewer.

The three best things going for Oklahoma City right now are their two first round picks in the 2010 NBA Draft, their cap space (though I'm not sure it will be used) and their collective young age and depth, which allows them to improve simultaneously.

The Thunder should be a lottery team again this season, unless they're going to win 20+ more games than they did in 08-09, which would have to begin by dramatically improving their rank as the 29th most efficient offense. Phoenix is a 50-50 bet to miss the playoffs again and at best (worst for OKC) will be picking 16th or 17th.

Oklahoma City will have enough cap space (4) to sign a max contract and there isn't a situation that would give LeBron or Chris Bosh a better chance of winning a title (while still being paid a maximum contract) than the Thunder. This is a team that is on a certain path to perennial playoff berths and has enough present talent to even be a fringe championship contender, so either one of those players would represent an undeniable tipping point. I can't realistically see LeBron going to Oklahoma City, but that's a quick 200 mile hop from Bosh's hometown of Dallas.

The cap space can also let them take on a lopsided trade during the coming season as a few teams look to clear a little more cap room for a run at a max contract, which could address their most glaring need and that is for an elite defensive big. Throwing Tyson Chandler back in the water may be a mistake that they are unable to find a similarly talented young big to rectify.

Their collective young age also means that Durant, Westbrook and Harden (to a lesser extent the older Green) are still probably at 75% of their full capabilities, while Mullens and Ibaka are boom or bust big men with enough latent potential to at least be serviceable starters. Presti has done an excellent job of picking up reasonably priced role players like Nenad Kristic, Shaun Livingston and Thabo Sefolosha via free agency and a salary dump.

Even if Durant joins LeBron and Dwight Howard while replacing Kobe in two seasons as one of the best two or three players in the NBA, each of those teams needed to make substantial moves to improve their chances. Presti has a clear head-start, but Oklahoma City presently projects more like a lot of near miss playoff teams that featured Hall of Famers like Jason Kidd (Nets with Richard Jefferson and Kenyon Martin), Karl Malone and Charles Barkley (those deeply talented Suns teams) than the 80s Celtics, 90s Bulls or 00s Lakers. It is not necessary to have two or three HOF'ers to win titles these days like those three dynasties had, but you still need a scary good number two to go with the best case possible of Durant. Oklahoma City has about 320 days to make a major move, otherwise they will be entering the vortex of their future with a roster that will be difficult to alter in any meaningful ways without blowing up some part of their prime core (5).

Presti is manning an enviable battleship, easily one of the three or four best long-term outlooks in the NBA, but he still has a lot of work left and cannot simply set this current core out into orbit and expect a title to automatically return.

Footnotes

1.) There have only been eight seasons where a player has averaged more than 35 points per game. Wilt Chamberlain did it five times, while Michael Jordan, Rick Barry and Kobe Bryant each accomplished the feat once.

2.) Barry had a near identical second-season assist percentage of 13.6 to Durant's 13.5 and became a perennial 20+ assist percentage passer when he returned from the ABA. With similar athleticism, size and skill set, Barry might be the closest reference point for Durant.

3.) In the interest of full disclosure, I was absolutely in favor of picking Oden over Durant in the 2007 debate. I remain solidly committed to that position even after Oden's injury and the quicker than expected development of Durant as a scorer. My position is based more on Oden being a center and the relative dearth of quality at that position than it does with comparing the two players in a vacuum. For the same reason, I would rather start a franchise with Dwight Howard than LeBron even though I believe LeBron is a vastly superior talent.

4.) The Thunder currently have just under $32M in committed salary for the 10-11 season if Sefolosha's qualifying offer is not counted.

5.) I avoided making Portland comparisons throughout this piece as much as possible, but it is worth noting that Kevin Pritchard was in an identical situation at the 2009 Trade Deadline and during this past summer's free agency period. Instead of using his cap space and talent depth on a blockbuster for a younger player to grow old with Brandon Roy, Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge, he improved the team in the short-term with Andre Miller. If the Blazers perpetually fall just a little bit short, I think this is the summer where Pritchard will be criticized for being too conservative/unimaginative.