2010 NBA Finals Preview
AP Photo The 2010 Playoffs has been a case where I really should have listened to my gut more than my brain. Unlike so many people who watched that regular season team look irrevocably destitute, I thought the Celtics had more than a puncher's chance of winning the Eastern Conference, provided they were able to meet the Cavaliers in the second round instead of the third. The fresher legs of Paul Pierce defending LeBron James, along with the explosion of Rajon Rondo and possible resurgence of Kevin Garnett and Rasheed Wallace would be capable of sneaking past the Cavaliers and then grinding out a win over an Orlando team that they were purely tougher than. For me, the most important single matchup will be Pierce and Ron Artest. I cannot come up with a more favorable defensive assignment for Artest and it could lead to a complete marginalization of Pierce where he will need 25 shots to score 25 points. Pierce's 07-08 playoff numbers are nearly identical to what they are this season, but he doesn't have the same look and feel with his ability to athletically create. His scoring is largely a byproduct of the offense shifting to Rondo. When the Lakers faced the Celtics in 2008, Vladimir Radmanovic, Luke Walton and Sasha Vujacic were all significant members of the rotation, leaving Boston's wings to control much of the series. Trevor Ariza was still a bit player before his 08-09 ascension. One other significant difference is the opposing trajectories of the careers of Garnett and Pau Gasol. Garnett has looked healthier in the playoffs, though the numbers may say otherwise. Garnett had a PER of 23.0 during the 2008 Playoffs and he comes in at 16.5 through the first 16 games this season. While his scoring, rebounding and assists are down, he is largely the same scorer due to how well he has shot his jumper. As far as Gasol, he was chronically and fairly called soft throughout the Finals and he has seemingly grown a pair over the past 700+ days. His 18.9 PER in 07-08 has upticked to 24.0 in this year's playoffs and his eFG% has jumped 30 points. Provided he remains as aggressive and (largely) fearless as he's been against Carlos Boozer and Amare Stoudemire, he gives the Lakers a tangible edge in this area of the series. Unsurprisingly though, the two best players from their respective teams, Kobe Bryant and Rondo, still will ultimately decide this series. Kobe hasn't completely lost his explosion, but he has become decidedly more of a jump shooter and is shooting the ball remarkably well. Looking at Rondo's offensive numbers, he has become infinitely more efficient (41.6% eFG% compared to 48.3 eFG%), increasing his points per 36 minutes from 11.2 to 14.5 and there is no need for any statistical evidence to determine how his impact on the game has grown exponentially. Rondo has also increased his assist percentage from 36.3% to 42.5%, which is closer to what the great passing point guards have posted. Perhaps before the series began, the Rondo factor would be an insurmountable problem for the Lakers. But on their way to the Finals, they have managed to survive the onslaught of three very good and very different point guards in Russell Westbrook, Deron Williams and Steve Nash. A rotation of Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar and perhaps Shannon Brown will all take turns on Rondo, but the help shotblocking of the bigs and the overall rotation defense will determine how successful he is offensively. Defensively, Rondo will be unable to drift into a uber-help defense position due to the respect he must pay Fisher's spot-up jumper. Even though he was the scourge of Los Angeles for a solid half hour following his flagrant foul on Goran Dragic, the return of Sasha Vujacic is supremely important. The Lakers have been heavily forced to go small with Farmar and Brown playing the guard positions and Kobe shifting to the three, but Vujacic's ability to stretch the defense with his perimeter shooting when Artest is sitting has the potential to be immeasurably valuable. Lamar Odom is still utterly unreliable, but is far less enigmatic than he was in 2008. He hasn't shot the ball very well, but his role off the bench in the Gasol/Andrew Bynum three-man rotation suits the very nature of his game. Bynum was not a participant in 2008 and I don't believe he is absolutely necessary for the Lakers to defeat Boston, but he is that last straw option if he is healthy. Kendrick Perkins is underrated and Rasheed's ability to stretch the floor both presents less than favorable matchups for Bynum defensively, but having the tandem interior scorers of Bynum and Gasol on the floor at the same time would pin in Boston's bigs against the dribble drive of Kobe. The Celtics were able to defeat the Heat, Cavaliers and Magic because they were better at four of five positions, but I see the trend being reversed in the Finals. Rondo has a substantial edge at point guard, but I'm not entirely sure Pierce has an edge over Artest considering the complexities of the matchup. Meanwhile, Kobe over Ray Allen, Gasol over Garnett, Bynum over Perkins and finally off the bench, Odom over Rasheed/Big Baby are all easy to call. Remaining motivated and avoiding becoming soft in Boston are the only two unforeseen obstacles from moving the Lakers to their 16th title, within one of the 17 banners held by the Celtics. Prediction: Lakers in six. As far as the prediction of RealGM's site users, 58% expect the Lakers to win, compared to 42% for Boston. Chris Reina is the executive editor of RealGM. Follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/cr_reina.
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