Grading The Draft: 2010 Edition
AP Photo There was a bit of a letdown with the 2010 NBA Draft, as we didn't get the trades of veterans that many were expecting to see. It was a fairly straightforward draft with a few of the typical slot trades we see from the younger, more inventive GMs. There has been attempts to prop up this class as deep in terms of role players, but the general sentiment stepping up to actually draft these guys and spend money on them is one of mellow confidence. We'll see a few surprises down the board, but this draft ultimately will be about John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, possibly Derrick Favors and whether or not the Thunder found the last crucial piece of their core. Teams improved and others stayed about the same in what should feel like a wasted opportunity. The real results of June 24th, 2010 won't be felt for at least a season or two, but here is how each team is looking under a preliminary audit. Wizards: The Wizards didn't take too long to decide upon John Wall, showing appropriate decisiveness in what was an easy player to choose. Wall should have a considerably better career than any of his counterparts and he will be judged against his fellow All-Star point guards and not against Evan Turner or Wesley Johnson at all. Even if for some reason he is surpassed in terms of NBA production, there wasn't a single person out there suggesting the Wizards do anything other than draft John Wall. Seraphin is a big bodied player with good agility comparative speaking. He will be extremely useful in the pick and roll because of how much space he takes up, but his real contributions will come in the post if he continues to develop. He has some specific skills to be an excellent NBA player, but he may already be at his ceiling. For all intents and purposes, the Wizards hope Seraphin becomes Wall's NBA version of DeMarcus Cousins. Booker wasn't a player I ranked as one of the best 60 players in this draft, because he is an older prospect and also a badly undersized power forward. He is probably closer to the 61st best player available in the draft than he is the 23rd best player. The 23rd pick is usually a role player position, but Omri Casspi, Wilson Chandler, Travis Outlaw and Tayshaun Prince have all been selected there in recent years and all are immensely more talented than Booker ever will be. Looking for that kind of versatile player, the Wizards should have looked instead at someone like Damion James who went 24th. John Wall, 1st Grade for Washington: B 76ers: Evan Turner is a pick you can't really quarrel with because the team needed a pure basketball player and someone that would be ready to contribute immediately. I have Turner ranked behind Cousins and Favors in terms of NBA potential, but I'd put him ahead of both on level of confidence. Even though Turner doesn't have the athleticism commonly seen from lead scoring guards, his versatility to play multiple positions and fill a box score will make him incredibly productive regardless. Evan Turner, 2nd Grade for Philadelphia: B+ Nets: Credit has to be given to Rod Thorn for trying to smoke out a pick from the Wolves by bluffing for Wesley Johnson, but Favors was the right pick for the Nets. The team may very well acquire a power forward in free agency and the team will try to begin winning immediately, which in that case would make Johnson the more immediately valuable player, but that is a very risky endeavor. If such a situation does end up occurring for the Nets, they can fairly easily flip Favors for a wing that is probably far better than Johnson, such as Danny Granger. There is a common theme in this draft of certain GMs (more to come with Mark Cuban and Joe Dumars) having a very particular type and I think that is true with the Damion James selection. I see him as a bigger version of Terrence Williams, who is also a very good athlete and doesn't have one particular skill, but is a good all-around player that will fit in somehow. James should be able to guard three positions at a proficient level and his offense off the dribble is better and more promising than one might imagine. The only thing separating James from being a 5th man and a 7th man is the evolution of his perimeter jumper. Derrick Favors, 3rd Grade for New Jersey: A Wolves: Wes Johnson is a safe pick and makes the Wolves better, but they had a shot at a player that very clearly has more talent in DeMarcus Cousins. Minnesota appears to be on an endeavor to sort out their roster imbalances and went into the draft with an excess at power forward and a dearth of wings and they certainly have plenty of wings now with the Martell Webster trade. Minnesota has Johnson and Webster to show for the 4th and 16th pick, which feels like a missed opportunity to really improve the team. Hayward will become a role player if he's fortunate, as he is limited in terms of any real upside and doesn't have a true position. I had Bjelica as the top European player in the draft, as he has a strong combination of size and skill. He has a lot of guard skills despite being 6'10". Prestes is a big bodied center who puts up numbers in the post and has good touch. I never like it when GMs get piled on and I think a small amount of it has been unfair in terms of the 2009 Draft, but I think this draft went worse for David Kahn. Wesley Johnson, 4th Grade for Minnesota: C- Kings: I have DeMarcus Cousins ranked as the second best player in this draft and I hate to think how difficult it will be physically and emotionally to not only play against both him and Tyreke Evans, but also play with them. I am more than willing to say the Kings are about 25 games away from being on the level in terms of overall talent in comparison to the Thunder or Blazers, except they are the antichrist version. Hassan Whiteside would have been an uncomfortable pick for most teams in the teens, but he is decidedly easy to select in the beginning of the second round. Both Whiteside and Cousins will be NBA centers, but there skill sets are completely different with the former being a finesse, face-up guy. He needs to mature both physically and mentally while he spends the majority of 10-11 in the D-League, but I expect him to figure out his game and be a strong NBA contributor. Whiteside has unique abilities as a scorer and as a shotblocker and it will eventually translate. DeMarcus Cousins, 5th Grade for Sacramento: A+ Warriors: Ekpe Udoh was a player I ranked 16th and in the bottom of the fourth tier and I felt like I was being generous with him. The 2010 NBA Draft will obviously be remembered as a down talent year on the high end, but the complete lack of imagination or ambition in this pick is troubling. At the very least the Warriors should have traded down to select Udoh, because no team in the top-10 would have picked him and they could have picked up some sort of additional asset or a smaller rookie scale contract. Udoh's best situation would have been a team with some established pieces where he could have just blended in and done the little things that he does do well. The Warriors have a complete logjam at power forward in Udoh, Anthony Randolph and Brandan Wright that someone will eventually need to fix and hopefully it might just be Kevin Pritchard because they will need someone like him to fix this mess when the team is mercifully sold. Ekpe Udoh, 6th Grade for Golden State: D- Pistons: Depending on how serious the Kings actually were about doing business, the grade for the Greg Monroe pick fluctuates. I don't see any situation where holding onto Prince makes sense if it meant ruining a chance for Cousins. It is something that we will never actually know and Monroe delivers something that the team doesn't already have. He won't be an All-Star, but if he can develop defensively to supplement what he brings in his offensive versatility will be a good first step for the Pistons. Even though Terrico White is a redundancy with Ben Gordon and Rodney Stuckety on the roster, he is a great talent at 36. We also know that Dumars has a definite fetish for this type of player, which shows a little bit of narcism considering the kind of player he was. White is a great athlete and has a general strong all-around game. The only thing separating White between the beginning of the second round and the top-15 is his jumper, which needs to improve for him to be anything more than instant offense off the bench. Greg Monroe, 7th Grade for Detroit: A- Clippers: The Clippers had an excellent draft picking up two very talented pieces that project as longtime NBA starters, which will leave things up to whether or not Blake Griffin is able to deliver upon the promise and expectations that come with being a number one overall pick. Al-Farouq Aminu has enough skill to be a lead scorer, but his demeanor will never allow it. This is a perfect situation for him because he'll have Griffin and Chris Kaman in the frontcourt, along with Baron Davis pushing him from the backcourt. There is no real way for Davis to earn his salary in terms of pure performance on the floor, but bringing this guy out of his shell and boosting his confidence would be worth every penny. Eric Bledsoe is a player that I wavered on quite a bit, which I had company on. He has great athletic tools and some good natural ability, but he is raw as a point guard and fundamentally flawed as a perimeter shooter. Bledsoe needs to make better decisions if he wants to be a true point guard and it makes sense for him to be Baron's understudy since he is somewhat similar stylistically. Willie Warren is the ultimate boom/bust player in the draft and completely worth it at 54. This time a year ago, I thought Warren would be a top-10 pick at worst, so it is startling to see him fall so quickly and so far. He needs to get back physically and develop mentally, but he is lottery talent without question. Al-Farouq Aminu, 8th Grade for Los Angeles: A- Jazz: Gordon Hayward may not be worth a ninth overall pick for very many teams, but he has the potential to be for the Jazz where he will thrive within Jerry Sloan's system. If Hayward can't make it in Salt Lake City, he really was never going to make it anywhere. He is more athletic than some people believe and he is a good playmaker off the dribble, but we shall see if he is capable of doing that against the world class athletes he's matched up against. I had Hayward ranked 19th overall and in my fifth tier before the draft, which is in the boom or bust territory, so I unsurprisingly feel that this was a reach and makes New York feel at least slightly better about losing the pick. If I was picking, however, I would have selected Ed Davis as he would have been a natural fit to replace Carlos Boozer. If the Jazz lose Boozer for nothing, I don't see how they can correct the situation before Deron Williams is free to join Chris Paul in free agency. In terms of Jeremy Evans, he wasn't on very many people's radar and could have just as easily been picked up as an undrafted free agent. It is difficult to knock any pick in the 50s, however and I think Wesley Matthews ought to force people to give Kevin O'Connor the benefit of the doubt. Gordon Hayward, 9th Grade for Utah: C Pacers: Just as Dumars keeps drafting combo guards, Larry Bird has another swingman on his roster in Paul George. I don't expect him to be anything more than the fourth best player on a given team, as his playmaking ability is strong but he doesn't look like he'll put it all together into a coherent consistency. The Pacers are almost certain to make a major trade this summer, so we'll see what ends up happening with the roster that is currently imbalanced. Another pick and another wing, with Lance Stephenson going to the Pacers. He is truly talented and his game is better suited for the NBA where he can utilize his ISO abilities. Magnum Rolle has been around for seemingly forever and brings a lot of athleticism, which has been problematic in the Indiana frontcourt. He'll block some shots and can finish well at the rim. The Pacers are at least drafting high talent players with upside this year. Paul George, 10th Grade for Indiana: B+ Hornets: Encouraged by what Jeff Bower did in 2009 by drafting Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton, the Hornets converted the 11th overall pick (Cole Aldrich) into the 21st and 26th pick while simultaneously shedding the contract of Morris Peterson. Craig Brackins and Quincy Pondexter were the selections and both picks were strong. Brackins will back up David West at power forward and will also be able to stretch opposing defenses with his jumper. Pondexter is a legitimate small forward and should be able to play immediately. He also is a very good ISO playmaker, which gives New Orleans two on the wings now (Thornton being the other), something they haven't enjoyed over the past few seasons. For many other teams, Brackins and Pondexter would be too conservative of a haul, but I like Bower's night. Grade for New Orleans: A- Grizzlies: The Grizzlies took Xavier Henry with the 12th overall pick as Paul George was already off the board. Henry isn't a small forward, so we will need to see O.J. Mayo play some point guard in order to find minutes. I like Henry's NBA future, but this pick doesn't make a whole lot of sense unless the roster receives some remodeling. Luke Babbitt would have been the logical pick if we are to work under the assumption that Rudy Gay won't be back. It was all about that money when the Grizzlies sold the rights to Dominique Jones to the Mavericks, something they will be reminded of four times annually. For their third first rounder, the Grizzlies selected Greivis Vasquez, who is a nice multi-dimensional player but probably a reach and another puzzling fit. Given the makeup of their roster, they have a ton of players that would thrive in the Triangle, especially Vasquez and Mayo. Xavier Henry, 12th Grade for Memphis: C- Raptors: Ed Davis has continuously been talking about how he is a face-up power forward and projects to have a similar game as Chris Bosh, so he'll get his chance to prove it. I have Davis ranked as the seventh best player in the draft, someone that is almost certainly going to become a starter. Depending on the kind of point guard the Raptors have long term, we'll see Davis trend upwards to the 20.0 PER level, or down to 15.0. He won't be as good as Bosh, but he is a very nice first piece to have in the rebuild. Alabi suffered an unexpected fall with some projections as high as 19 or 20. The Raptors absolutely need to upgrade defensively and while Alabi is a project, he is certainly capable of growing into that type of player. I had Alabi rated as the 35th best player in the draft. Ed Davis, 13th Grade for Toronto: A Rockets: The Rockets already have some depth at power forward, but his versatility will allow him to play both forward positions. Rick Adelman had excellent success with undersized power forward Carl Landry, so there's no reason to doubt it won't be duplicated with Patterson. He is a consummate pro and will be another above average player in Houston's core. I thought the Rockets would cash in some of their future assets to move up, but the value in Patterson at 15 is excellent (ranked 9th overall here) and after Chicago's trade of Kirk Hinrich, holding onto those New York picks might be a good idea. Patrick Patterson, 14th Grade for Houston: A Bucks: This has been a revealing week for the Bucks, first trading for Corey Maggette and now spending the 15th overall pick on an absolute role player in Larry Sanders. He is a junkyard dog type of player that will dirty up the game a little bit while playing strong defense. The Bucks may have needed a bit more skill added to their roster, but he will make them unquestionably better. Darington Hobson is a good pickup in the second round, particularly because he doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective and will fit in playing with Brandon Jennings. Jerome Jordan is a low energy, passive center, but he has some skill on both ends of the floor. It appears as though the trade will go to New Jersey as part of the Chris Douglas-Roberts trade. Tiny Gallon is a low risk, high reward player who has a ton of skill and surprising agility for his big frame. Larry Sanders, 15th Grade for Milwaukee: B- Bulls: The Bulls made their all-in move for the 2010 free agency class by unloading Hinrich, $3M in cash and the 17th overall pick to the Wizards. I believe Chicago was a candidate before the trade was made, but their chances have improved immensely and have to be considered the favorites. If they are unable to sign two max contracts, all that was lost was the opportunity to draft James Anderson, who is something that can be found elsewhere with relative ease. Grade for Chicago: A Thunder: With Kevin Pritchard on a GM hiatus for at least a little bit, Sam Presti is now the undisputed active draft night champ. His ability to parlay picks up and down is a craft that so many of the old-timers and former players still haven't quite understood the concept of despite its prevalence for the past few years. The Thunder needed a center that will take up space on both sides of the floor, block some shots, rebound and go to work on occasion in the post and they were able to trade up for him to take Cole Aldrich by using the 21st and 26th picks. He will go a very long way in freeing up Serge Ibaka at the power forward position and their interior defense will be immensely improved. The Thunder also wisely punted on the 18th overall pick to grab a future first rounder from a team almost always in the lottery in the Clippers. We'll see if that is cashed before Kevin Durant's 30th birthday, but I'm sure it will be valuable when it is used by the Thunder. In the second round, the Thunder received Aldrich insurance they can stash overseas in Tibor Pleiss. I had Pleiss rated as the 31st best player in the draft and he was sure enough drafted 31st. He is a big body and has good touch around the bucket. Latavious Williams is athletic enough to blend in with the Thunder since he will be surrounded with skilled players. Reid is purely a flier as well and I don't expect him to ever get past Vegas in a Thunder uniform. Cole Aldrich, 11th Grade for Oklahoma City: A Celtics: The Celtics only had one player they seemed to like at No. 19, Avery Bradley, who I had been penciling in for them for a few weeks. He is potentially a knockdown perimeter shooter who can handle the point when Rajon Rondo is out of the game and can also share a backcourt with him. Bradley also is an excellent on-ball defender, which can make end of game situations favor Boston dramatically at least in terms of the guard play. Luke Harangody is what he is and will be the same thing for Boston as an agitator off the bench on both ends of the floor. Avery Bradley, 19th Grade for Boston: A- Spurs: It is a little easier for Spurs to find players like James Anderson at 20 because the system works and they don't expect them to be more than what they are. Anderson had to do everything at Oklahoma State and he is a spot-up shooter who can put the ball on the deck off of that a little bit. He also can defend fairly well, which makes him precisely what the Spurs needed on the wing heading into the offseason. When it comes to second round picks, there is no use in being conservative and picking Ryan Richards is far from a conservative pick. He has some of the same skills as Michael Beasley, except he's a solid 6'11". The Spurs own their own D-League team and have the structure in place to develop his raw game. James Anderson, 20th Grade for San Antonio: A Blazers: Not too many GMs that weren't Hall of Fame players get to be so popular with multiple catchphrases ('In KP We Trust' and 'Pritch-Slap'), but that was the cult of Kevin Pritchard in Portland. He was fired before the draft, allowed to make the decisions and had a swan song that was representative of his tenure. He turned Webster into Luke Babbitt, who will be the point forward that the Blazers were envisioning when they were pursuing Hedo Turkoglu last summer. He is already better than Turkoglu and will greatly improve the club offensively. Everyone is waiting for Nicolas Batum to have a complete breakout season in 10-11, so to have Babbitt behind him will make the small forward position an area of great strength. Even though I preferred Dominique Jones, the Blazers went with the combo guard scorer in drafting Elliot Williams. He might have enough skill to be a pure point guard, but i see him as more of a scoring guard who needs to have the ball in his hands. Assuming Rudy Fernandez is moved, a four-man guard rotation of Brandon Roy, Jerryd Bayless, Andre Miller and Williams has some redundant parts, but any of the four are capable of winning games individually on the offensive end. The Blazers also picked up a steady backup point guard in Armon Johnson at 34, though I'm not sure the expense ($2 million) was worth it. With that said, there is no way he would have remained on the board at 44. Luke Babbitt, 16th Grade for Portland: A Hawks: Out of all the teams in all the world, two scoring guards with chucker reputations named Crawford end up on the same team. Jordan Crawford's career will likely resemble Jamal Crawford's, but it is difficult to see him surpassing his elder unless he is able to develop a purer set of point guard skills. Crawford is an interesting pick and should replace some of Joe Johnson's scoring if he departs, but I would have preferred to see the Hawks risk big on Daniel Orton if they were going to risk at all. Pape Sy admittedly is someone I wasn't previously familiar with, so I will reserve judgment on that selection until I have a chance to ask around and watch his tape. Jordan Crawford, 27th Grade for Atlanta: C Magic: Orlando went into the draft with the thought that they would select a point guard, or at least someone who could create off the dribble. With Quincy Pondexter off the board and Daniel Orton still on it, Otis Smith selected the center project over an alternative such as Terrico White. While White would help immediately with some playmaking, Orton is the kind of player that can become a strong contributor in two or three years time and possibly could grow into such an asset that he is converted into what Al Jefferson was for Boston or what Andrew Bynum almost was for the Lakers in order to acquire a piece that pushes Orlando over the top. In general, drafting is about finding the balance between risk and reward and I don't think there is much of the former despite the abundance of the latter. Stanley Robinson was a player I went up and down on throughout this process. He doesn't look like much of a basketball player, but his athleticism is off the charts and that makes him potentially a guy that can fit a niche in a role similar to a guy like Tony Allen. Daniel Orton, 29th Grade for Orlando: A Knicks: The time for the Knicks to hit homers was in 2008 and 2009, but drafting Andy Rautins and Landry Fields is the draft equivalent of a sacrifice bunt. The absolute ceiling for each player is as a 10th or 11th man, which of course leaves little margin of error. I like Rautins quite a bit more than Fields, since he can be a perimeter shooter that also can handle the ball a little bit. I really don't see where Fields fits in from a potential minutes perspective unless Wilson Chandler is traded and that's assuming he can be productive. The Knicks really should have gone big, whether it was Gani Lawal or Hamady N'diaye with at least one of the picks. I also would have taken a chance on Willie Warren considering their need at the point and his ability to play off the ball while defending opposing points in a role similar to Toney Douglas. Darington Hobson undoubtedly was their targeted player and he was taken with the 37th overall pick. Andy Rautins, 38th Grade for New York: D Lakers: It was somewhat obvious to say since Kevin Pelton, Chad Ford and I said it simultaneously, but Devin Ebanks is very similar to Trevor Ariza in terms of his combination of athleticism and skill potential. It took Ariza a few frustrating years with the Knicks and Magic before becoming the full fledged player he is today and Ebanks can certainly develop in that same way. I'm confident the Lakers will use their MLE on a vet point guard, so drafting someone to give the wing some much needed athleticism made a ton of sense. The Lakers also selected Derrick Caracter, who probably won't make Phil Jackson any more motivated to stay on the bench even if he seems to thrive on 'unique' personalities like this one. He has a lot of skill and plays even bigger than he is and he should fit in if he can stay steady mentally. There is a long ways to go for Ebanks and Caracter to become NBA productive, but a good night for the Lakers one night after winning a title. Devin Ebanks, 43rd Grade for Los Angeles: A Heat: Like the Bulls, Miami traded out of the late teens in an attempt to shave off cap space for July. There has never been a better time to be drafted by the Heat in the second round because you are virtually assured of being employed in November. Their second round picks were quintessential Pat Riley gambles and I especially like the potential fit of Dexter Pittman and Jarvis Varnado. Da'Sean Butler does a lot of things well and is the kind of lower talent player Riley tends to find for the wing. Dexter Pittman, 32nd Grade for Miami: B Cavaliers: The Cavaliers attempted to buy their way into the draft, but were unsuccessful after players they liked became unavailable. Cleveland's draft history since 2003 has been unfortunate with the exception of J.J. Hickson. Grade for Cleveland: Incomplete Nuggets: Denver did not make a pick in this draft. Grade for Denver: Incomplete Suns: The Suns selected Gani Lawal and Dwayne Collins, two power forwards that might make up one Amare Stoudemire if they somehow combined their absolute best attributes. Both players are great value plays late in the second round and are essentially found money if either make it. I have a better feeling about Lawal than Collins morphing into a contributor. Gani Lawal, 46th Grade for Phoenix: B Bobcats: The Bobcats were unsuccessful in their attempts to trade/buy their way into the draft. Grade for Charlotte: Incomplete Mavericks: I saved Mark Cuban for last since he made another move for a scoring guard in Dominique Jones, who will follow in the footsteps of Nick Van Exel, Jason Terry and Rodrigue Beaubois and even Maurice Ager. Jones was one of my personal favorites in this draft and I had him ranked as the 15th best prospect. I'm curious how Jones is used and if he gravitates one way or the other in terms of shooting guard or point guard. The Mavericks also dealt Alabi to the Raptors. Grade for Dallas: A Final Tallies Receiving an A: Kings, Thunder, Blazers, Nets, Pistons, Clippers, Raptors, Hornets, Rockets, Bulls, Celtics, Spurs, Magic, Lakers, Mavs Receiving a B: Wizards, 76ers, Pacers, Bucks, Heat, Suns Receiving a C: Wolves, Jazz, Grizzlies, Hawks Receiving a D: Warriors, Knicks Incompletes: Cavaliers, Bobcats, Nuggets Chris Reina is the executive editor of RealGM. Follow him on Twitter at @CR_Reina.
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