CBA expert Larry Coon believes the owners and players essentially have an agreement.

"They've essentially had an agreement for a long time," writes Coon. "It didn't take a crystal ball to see where they would eventually land on the BRI split and system issues. But they still needed to do the dance that gets them there."

But Coon also believes the decision currently facing the players is their biggest one yet.

"Since the stakes rise over time, this is their biggest decision thus far. But it's possible there are bigger decisions yet to come."

While David Stern said on Thursday that the owners are done with negotiations, this will not be their last, best offer.

"If the players say "no" and counter, they can still meet in the middle of next week, Stern's "we're done negotiating" notwithstanding. And if they say "no" and file a decertification petition, this could all come to a head again in January."

Coon believes the players will ultimately accept the current offer and the NBA will play a 72-game season beginning December 15th, but it will be close.

"Derek Fisher has to sell it to the player reps as the best deal they're going to get, with no better option on the horizon. This could still easily blow up, and it's still pretty close to a coin flip. I'd call it a 51/49 split."