Will Michigan St. play faster this season?

Luke Winn of Sports Illustrated has been emphasizing that through the first few games of the year, the Michigan St. Spartans have a lot more fast-break baskets than in recent seasons. And as I watched the Spartans’ Denzel Valentine leak out for a transition dunk to seal the win against Oklahoma, I found myself wondering whether Winn is right. Will the Spartans really be able to keep up this torrid pace of attacking in transition?

The reason I am doubtful is that I feel like Michigan St. tricks me every season. The Spartans always play one or two really fast-paced games early in the year (usually in a Feast Week Tournament), and then conference play rolls along and that comes to an end. Here are the Spartans raw tempo numbers (possessions per game), broken down by non-conference, conference, and NCAA tournament games. Every single year there is a huge drop-off in pace in Big Ten play:

In fact, looking at teams in the former Power 6 conferences over the last 11 years, only two teams have slowed down more in conference play than the Spartans.

Notably, there are four Big Ten teams on this list. As Tom Crean has found out at Indiana, even if you want to run in the Big Ten, you are fighting an uphill battle. Surprisingly, almost all the power conference teams tend to have a slower pace in conference play. But the Big Ten seems to slow down more than the other conferences:

Part of that is the coaches. And in that regard, I am optimistic for 2014. Chris Collins and Richard Pitino should unambiguously upgrade the tempo at Northwestern and Minnesota. And even Bo Ryan’s Wisconsin team seems to be playing at a faster pace this year.

And yet, there is part of me that is still skeptical. And that is because of quotes like this one by Bo Ryan in an interview with John Gasaway this preseason. In this quote, Bo Ryan is emphasizing how important it is that his teams get back and prevent transition baskets.  Ryan, “Is it just two or three offensive rebounds that I'm not getting while I'm holding the other team to zero fast-break points? I'll take that any day. I've felt that way ever since I started coaching.”

For as long as I have been watching, that has been the mentality in the Big Ten. If a player doesn’t get back and stop a transition bucket, he will quickly find himself glued to the bench.

But we have seen that because of experience or style-of-play issues, teams in other conferences are far less concerned about giving up transition baskets. Kentucky was inexperienced, and Michigan St. used that against them. Lon Kruger is using a gambling defense this year, and Michigan St. pounced.

In my opinion, Tom Izzo is a brilliant coach who is prepared to take advantage of any margin that is available in a basketball game. But given the lack of transition opportunities in the Big Ten, I remain skeptical that what we have seen in the early season will hold up over the full season.

Speaking of transition baskets…

North Carolina vs Louisville

On paper, this should have been an intriguing match-up. North Carolina head coach Roy Williams loves to attack in transition. Louisville head coach Rick Pitino loves to pressure on defense. On the one hand, North Carolina should be the ideal team to attack Louisville’s press and beat it for easy baskets. On the other hand, with North Carolina’s guard depth limited by early season suspensions, it was equally possible that North Carolina’s guards would be overwhelmed by Louisville’s pressure.

But after North Carolina struggled against Holy Cross and lost to Belmont, the consensus was that Louisville was simply the better team. Louisville had more talent and more experience, and this game was no longer worth the price of admission.

But that was wrong and North Carolina freshmen center Kennedy Meeks provided the key difference in this clash of styles. Meeks finished with 7 assists in the game and his ability to throw long outlet passes over the Louisville defense gave North Carolina a number of unexpected transition baskets.

There were other factors in the game. Louisville was truly limited in the paint offensively with Montrezl Harrell fouling out early. North Carolina’s Brice Johnson played well. And North Carolina’s Marcus Paige held his own scoring with Louisville’s Russ Smith. But in the end, North Carolina’s transition passing from unexpected players was the difference.

Early Surprises

It is too early to draw too many conclusions, but a few teams have performed significantly better or worse than what I expected in the preseason. Let’s break it down:

Washington

Preseason Projection: NCAA Bubble Team

Current Performance: No Postseason

What explains the difference? Early season injuries to Desmond Simmons and Jernard Jerrau have left Washington with a much shorter than expected lineup. The result has been horrific interior defense. Washington is allowing opponents to make 57% of their 2’s on the year. Washington also got killed on the defensive boards against Indiana.

Is the change permanent? Not necessarily. Simmons has had a knee injury, but he could still return for conference play. Also, Lorenzo Romar was not necessarily planning to go with a smaller 4-guard lineup in the preseason and it looks a lot like Washington has not figured out how to defend with this lineup yet. Things should get better. But after allowing over 1.33 points per possession in both games in New York, they have to.

Iowa St.

Preseason Projection: NIT

Current Performance: Team Fighting for Protected Seed

What explains the difference? With two thirds of Iowa St.’s lineup graduating, this seemed like a rebuilding year. After all, Fred Hoiberg was only bringing in one key transfer in DeAndre Kane. It was impressive enough for Hoiberg to get a bunch of experienced D1 transfers to gel the last two seasons. But getting JUCO and freshmen recruits to play at a high level right away seemed highly unlikely. And yet Iowa St. has beaten Michigan at home and won at BYU.

Fred Hoiberg has basically done it by utilizing a short rotation against quality opponents. Returners George Niang, Melvin Ejim, and transfer Kane have all increased their percentage of possessions used. But it still would not work without some new faces filling roles. The two key ones have been JUCO Top 100 recruit Dustin Hogue and freshmen Top 100 recruit Matt Thomas.

JUCO Top 100 recruits are lottery tickets.  Some like Oklahoma St.’s Gary Gaskins are finding themselves glued to the bench. But not Hogue. Meanwhile, only freshmen in the Top 30 can really be counted on to be instant impact recruits. But Thomas, ranked 52^nd nationally, is playing well.

Finally, the biggest surprise is that Naz Long has emerged as a dominant three point shooter. Long made only 28% of his threes last year and he was very lightly recruited out of high school.

Is the change permanent? In this case, I think it might be. While lots of JUCO Top 100 recruits and freshmen Top 100 recruits are busts, if players are going to break out, they usually play well early. And Thomas and Hogue have more than held their own.  

Duke

Preseason Projection: Title Contender

Current Performance: Not Going to Make Final Four

What explains the difference? Duke is going to win a ton of games this year. They might even win the ACC. But I think Duke’s interior defense is an Achilles heel that they cannot overcome. At some point prior to the Final Four, they are going to run into a team that can get a few stops, and Duke’s lack of interior defense is going to send them home.

Is the change permanent?  I was worried when a young Kansas team exploited Duke inside. But I thought that was Bill Self magic in bringing Perry Ellis along. But after Duke allowed Vermont to make 31 of 41 two pointers on Sunday, I am now convinced that this is a major problem. And I don’t think this is fixable given Duke’s personnel.

Oklahoma

Preseason Projection: NIT

Current Performance: NCAA Bubble Team

What explains the difference? When Amath M’Baye unexpectedly declared for the draft, it meant Oklahoma had to rebuild its frontcourt rotation from scratch. That made this seem like a rebuilding year, but two things have worked in Oklahoma’s favor.

First, Ryan Spangler has been a rebounding machine early in the season. The transfer had great per minute rebounding stats at Gonzaga, but it was not clear whether those stats would hold up with Spangler playing significantly more minutes. For Spangler, not only have they held up, but with the exception of the Michigan St. game, Spangler has stayed out of foul trouble.

The other big thing that has made up for Oklahoma’s lack of interior size is that the team has done a fantastic job creating a frenetic atmosphere and forcing teams to make bad decisions. The sequence at the end of the Seton Hall game, where Oklahoma scored 7 points to overcome a 6 point deficit in the final 45 seconds was brilliant basketball. But the best part of the comeback was this. Once Oklahoma took a one point lead, they didn’t suddenly drop back and allow Seton Hall to get a good look at a game-winning shot. Instead Oklahoma kept the ball-pressure on, and forced Seton Hall into an extremely low percentage look. I cannot tell you how many teams would have laid back after taking the lead. But Lon Kruger’s team had Seton Hall rattled, and did not let up.

Is the change permanent? Oklahoma allowed Seton Hall to go on a 45-25 run in the middle of the game and I am still concerned about the Sooners defense in the half-court. Their other nice win was over an Alabama team with its own front-court issues. Teams like Baylor and Kansas will test Lon Kruger’s squad to a much larger degree. Still, this no longer looks like a rebuilding season.

Florida St.

Preseason Projection: NIT

Current Performance: NCAA Tournament

What explains the difference? Florida St. was a bad team last year and after every recruiting battle went the wrong way (Andrew Wiggins) or ended with the player ineligible (Xavier Rathan-Mayes), there just was not a lot of reason to think Florida St. would be in the mix for the NCAA tournament. But they dismantled VCU by 30 points, and lost in OT to Michigan in Puerto Rico.

Is the change permanent? Leonard Hamilton had a Top 15 defense four years in a row and his defense completely disappeared last year. But as the Seminoles showed in holding VCU to an eFG% of 33%, and as Florida St. showed with its great offensive rebounds late against Northeastern, the team’s toughness is back. The Seminoles will probably still finish closer to the bubble rather than safely in the field, but as long as the defense is back, there is no reason this team cannot compete for the top half of the ACC.

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