RealGM Analysis
The Houston Rockets are down 0-2 to the Golden State Warriors after the first two games of the Western Conference Finals, but either game could have swung the other way and James Harden is emphatically 2-for-2 as the MVP candidate he was throughout the season.
As was the case in the regular season, the brilliance of Stephen Curry has been undeniable even while operating within the confines of the best all-around supporting cast in the NBA, and Harden has been stranded carrying a battered Rockets’ team. The final play of Game 2 saw Harden end up on the floor rueing the missed opportunity, rushing a pass to Dwight Howard when he thought the trailing player was someone capable of hitting a wide-open three-pointer. But in no way did it meaningfully detract from his performance over the first two games of the series. Harden has a 39.9 PER over the first two games, while Curry is at a still remarkable 33.2. These are two players from the same draft class who just hit their prime this season playing at their peak basketball brilliance.
Harden was welcomed into this series by “overrated” chants from Oracle Arena, but those were silenced quickly and there was nothing but admiration for the craftsmanship of his play by the final buzzer of Game 2. Those were more a support for Curry anyways than a true value judgment, telling Harden “You’re not the real MVP.”
The individual battle between Harden and Curry has more than fulfilled its entertainment promise and the striking thing may be how rare we get to see the MVP and his runner-up match up in the playoffs. LeBron James and Kevin Durant in the 2012 NBA Finals were the most recent example of the two top vote-getters going head-to-head, and you have to track back all the way to 1997 and 1998 when Michael Jordan and Karl Malone for the next most recent example.
Championships and deep playoff runs are the domain of big men or transcendent top-10 all-time talents like LeBron and Jordan, so these two offensive savants who are 6-5 and under MVP candidates are in truly rarefied territory as the unquestioned best players on Conference Finalists.
There is a certain cosmic perfection to Harden finishing second in MVP voting and playing out of his mind this deep in the playoffs in the same week Russell Westbrook represents the Oklahoma City Thunder in the playoffs. No topic in the NBA has been discussed and written to death and beyond like the Harden trade, but the element I’ve always found to be the most overlooked is how complicit Westbrook and Kevin Durant were in the situation. There’s never been a report about Durant or Westbrook going to ownership or Sam Presti and demanding they keep Harden. Westbrook even had this famous “troll” response to RealGM’s Jonathan Tjarks when asked if thought Harden was a “max player” during the first round of the 2012 playoffs.
There should have never been any indeterminacy that Harden was deserving of the max, just like Draymond Green this year. Curry made a special point during the middle of his MVP speech to make sure the Warriors will max out Green. Harden was a well-liked teammate, but Durant and Westbrook hardly fought for Harden to get his after they got theirs. Maybe they win a championship without him by now if not for the injuries, but Harden’s playing and they’re not right now.
Curry is playing against Harden with a stacked deck of sorts, but Harden has transmuted into the perfect avatar for Daryl Morey. Harden’s threes, layups, drawn fouls and assists can be viewed through a cynical prism, or as Haralabos Voulgaris wrote during Game 2, the Rockets play “with a combination of sleight of hand and card counting. Truly impressive to watch. Every. Edge. Counts.”
The Warriors have Klay Thompson, one of the NBA’s best on-ball wing defenders, stalking Harden, while Curry is getting a potpourri of defenders including 37-year-old Jason Terry and 38-year-old Pablo Prigioni. Harden was worn down by the final play of Game 2 in a way that didn’t impact Curry’s ability to make a contested 22-footer with 1:39 left in the game with fullcourt point guard hound Patrick Beverley injured. Harden doesn't have the pick-and-roll to manufacture easy points and the rim protection of Andrew Bogut also takes away that option. Harden isn't drawing fouls like he did in the regular season, so he's manufacturing everything with a high degree of difficulty.
Curry has scored 34 points and 33 points in the first two games, while Harden is averaging 33.0 points, 10.5 rebounds, 9.0 assists and 3.5 steals per game. Harden has a True Shooting Percentage of 0.687; Curry is at 0.734.
The Rockets have been attempting to match the Warriors’ pace and space over the first two games, but they’re not getting those Josh Smith and Corey Brewer three-pointers from the Clippers’ series just yet. The Rockets aren’t getting any secondary playmaking and the Warriors aren’t using a hack-a-Dwight to give Harden a reprieve from his exhaustion. The Rockets could eliminate the Mavericks with a 4-5 pick-and-roll and the Clippers with Harden on the bench, but it is all on Harden now.
The Rockets now need to win four out of five, holding court at home and stealing one of two on the road. The Warriors were nearly unanimously predicted to win the Western Conference Finals and even though Houston lost the first two games, they have exceeded expectations for how close this series will be. The Warriors were hoping to avoid the two teams that eliminated them in each of the past two seasons in the Spurs and Clippers, but Harden and the Rockets are offering their own gauntlet.
