This year’s NBA Finals features the matchup that many predicted would take place in the latter portion of the regular. However, the journeys that each team experienced en route to the championship are vastly different. The Cleveland Cavaliers may have faced easier competition in the Eastern Conference, but they confronted more adversity than the Golden State Warriors, who dominated the league from the season’s early stages.

While the Warriors won 34 of their first 40 games, the Cavs struggled badly out of the gate. Mediocre but unexceptional play characterized the Cavs' level of basketball to start to the season. The team’s performance did not match the public’s or the organization’s expectations for a roster that included arguably three of the top 15 players in the league (one of whom is a 4-time MVP). In searching for the root of the problems, the media eventually settled on LeBron James’ topsy-turvy relationships with his first-year head coach, David Blatt, and his new teammate, Kevin Love. Ultimately, LeBron decided to address the team’s (and his own) struggles by taking a two-week hiatus. During that stretch, the Cavs went 1-7 and their 19-19 record for the season signaled that the franchise was in the midst of a real crisis.

LeBron’s return initiated the Cavs resurgence, as they ended the season winning 34 of their last 44 games to grab the 2-seed in the conference. Cleveland’s second major problem emerged in Game 4 of the 1st round against the Celtics, when Love dislocated his left shoulder. Injuries have remained an issue throughout the playoffs, as star guard Kyrie Irving has been limited with a sore foot and a sore knee. An injury to one star player is usually devastating in the playoffs, let alone two star players. Yet, the Cavs have persevered and now find themselves in the NBA Finals with a chance to forget all the difficulties of the 2014-15 season.

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This preview focuses on the Cavaliers' offense and the Warriors' defense. Love’s absence and Irving’s maladies have stripped Cleveland’s offense of its aesthetic appeal and elite shooting. Yet, it has remained similarly effective in the playoffs by improving in a few noteworthy areas. 

*All stats represented per 100 possessions

One might argue that the 3-point measure does not represent an improvement because of the decline in 3-point percentage. However, attempting more 3s is beneficial when the corresponding percentage only declines slightly as it has for the Cavs. These positive trends have offset the lack of ball movement and slow pace that has come to define Cleveland’s offense this postseason. They explain why the Cavs have posted the highest offensive efficiency rating of any team in the playoffs, a number that is actually slightly higher than the one they posted in the regular season. 

On the other side, the Warriors' defense was stingy in the regular season and has remained so in the playoffs. Sporting a roster with a plethora of rangy and athletic defenders, the Warriors are able to switch assignments liberally without facing too severe of a mismatch. They are skilled at switching fluidly to prevent opposing ball handlers from getting deep penetration in semi-transition or in the half court. How the Cavaliers two primary ball-handlers (James & Irving) respond to the Warriors defensive scheme will go a long way in determining the outcome of the Finals.

Isolation

The Warriors' switch-heavy defensive scheme often coaxes opponents into running a lot of isolations to take advantage of perceived mismatches. During the regular season, the Warriors defense induced the most possession-ending events (shot attempts, fouls, turnovers) that stemmed from an ISO out of any team in the league. Draymond Green was the target of most of these possessions, as he faced more possession-ending events from ISOs per game than any player in the league. Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala and Stephen Curry all ranked in the top 60 in the same category. Forcing opponents into isolations is one of the reasons the Warriors' defense is so successful because relying on ISOs generally leads to inefficient offense. Furthermore, the Warriors excel at stopping ISOs as they ranked 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency against such plays in the regular season. If you like one-on-one basketball, then this series is right up your alley.

Teams find themselves creating offense in isolation more than normal when playing the Warriors, and the Cavs already rely on ISOs much more than a normal offense. In fact, they led the league with 12.1 possession-ending events coming from ISOs per game in the regular season. That number has increased substantially to 17.2 possessions per game in the playoffs. This increase can be attributed largely to Love’s and Irving’s injuries, which have sapped the Cavaliers of vital sources of offense and have caused LeBron to take on much more of a scoring burden. 

During the regular season, the Cavaliers offense thrived despite playing heavily ISO-based basketball. Irving was one of the most effective isolation scorers in the league and LeBron was very good in such situations as well. However, neither player has maintained the same efficiency in isolation in the playoffs. Irving has understandably isolated less and scored less because of his injury. LeBron, however, as detailed by ESPN’s Tom Haberstroh in this piece, has isolated a massive number of times this postseason with poor results. The absence of Love as a 3-point shooting threat has made it more difficult for LeBron to find clear driving lanes to get to the rim. As a result, he is shooting more and his field goal percentage has declined significantly.

LeBron’s Offensive Production

Recent struggles with their isolations and their opponent’s expertise in coaxing and defending such plays could spell trouble for the Cavs offense. The Warriors have a number of skilled defensive wing players to throw at LeBron and the frontcourt duo of Green and Andrew Bogut can be counted upon to help appropriately off their men to thwart James’s drives. Perhaps the Cavs will try to steer their offense towards the other plays that they utilize regularly, but the Warriors are well-equipped to defend those as well.

Pick & Rolls

Simple high ball-screens for James and Irving are central to the Cavs' offense. These plays often lead to James or Irving shot attempts or kick outs to spot-up 3-point shooters. James scored well as a ball handler in pick-and-rolls during the regular season but similarly to his ISO attempts, his scoring efficiency has declined in the playoffs. Irving is more effective as a scorer after receiving a high ball-screen. He scores so proficiently because of his ability to pull-up from midrange or behind the 3-point line and to utilize his slick ball-handling to drive past a big man defender and finish with a deft touch around the rim. If healthy, he could be particularly useful in pick-and-rolls involving Bogut’s man, because the Warriors’ scheme asks Bogut to drop and concede pull-up jumpers against pick-and-rolls. That same coverage could be more effective against LeBron by forcing him to become a jump shooter.

Pick-and-rolls intended to enable James and Irving to penetrate often force opposing wings to help and thereby opens up shooters behind the 3-point line. This is why the Cavs ranked second in points per possession on spot-up attempts during the regular season. Unfortunately for Cleveland, the Warriors' defense is excellent at defending jump shots. Golden State’s defenders are heady about deciding when to drop off their men so that they are in a position where they can help on drives and still be able to close out effectively on shooters. Several relevant statistics demonstrate their superiority in this aspect of defense. 

* All statistics from Regular Season

It will be fascinating to see how the Cavs' spot-up 3-point shooting fares against a defense that guards such shots so successfully. The result will largely be determined by how much LeBron and Irving are able to score inside.

Conclusion

To this point, it seems that the Cavaliers might have trouble scoring against a stout Warriors' defense. The Cavs' strengths on offense seem to play right into the hands of their opposition. However, the second matchup between these two squads on February 26 tells a different story. While it’s true that Kevin Love’s presence in the game clouds its predictive capacity for the upcoming finals, there were some notable trends that might translate. LeBron scored 42 points by regularly driving past his defender with ease en route to either finishing inside or drawing a foul. The Warriors have exhibited an occasional tendency to be foul-prone, which is something that the Cavs can exploit. Furthermore, Tristan Thompson’s emergence as an offensive rebounding machine could give the Warriors trouble when they play smaller lineups without.

If LeBron and the Cavaliers' offense continue to exhibit the struggles in isolation that have plagued them this postseason, they may have trouble scoring consistently. This will be true especially if Irving is hobbled because his playing style might be a better weapon against the Warriors defense. Golden State’s personnel and scheme match up well against LeBron’s preferred playing style of using isolations and pick-and-rolls to get inside. That is why LeBron needs to rediscover his elite ability to score in isolations and pick-and-rolls to give his Cavs the best chance to win. Otherwise, the celebration might be on in the Bay Area.