RealGM Analysis
For the second straight year, the Los Angeles Lakers’ offseason is predicated on an outcome they cannot control. The Lakers enter the 2016 NBA Lottery with a 55.8 percent chance to remain among the top 3 selections and avoid losing their pick to the Philadelphia 76ers.
The consensus has landed on Brandon Ingram and Ben Simmons as the probable top two picks, regardless of which teams land there. Unfortunately for the wing-needy Lakers, there’s a clear choice on who will and should be taken with the No. 1 overall pick.
Ingram has a strong case as the draft’s next closest thing to a two-way superstar on the perimeter. Simmons, once considered by some as a lock to go first overall, didn’t look as polished offensively as anticipated at the collegiate level with his lack of perimeter shooting. More problematic for the Lakers, Simmons’ style could clash with the youthful core already in place.
Simmons initiated the majority of LSU’s offense, creating for himself and teammates. With a 26.4 percent usage percentage, Simmons, operating as lead ball distributor and offense initiator, has proven he can be adept at making plays with the ball in his hand. Simmons struggles to move without the ball, which could be an issue with two primary ball dominant guards already on the Lakers.
The Lakers have been accruing talent from the draft and have found two quality lead guards in D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson. Clarkson plays off-ball with Russell sharing the court, but has displayed the ability to be competent running the offense.
Bringing in Simmons, Los Angeles would be adding another young player who has to have the ball to generate consistent offense. Taking away Russell’s prolific ability to pass with vision and efficiency and playing him off-ball more could be a flawed concept that would hinder his growth.
Simmons could slide to the 3 even if he's a natural 4 in the current era, but having Russell continue to man the point and operating with a Simmons-Randle tandem in the paint exhibits many issues.
Possibly moving to a small-ball approach, both Simmons and Randle aren’t plus defenders at this stage of their respective careers, and lack length and willingness to be imposing rim protectors.
On the other hand, Ingram is the ideal fit on a roster devoid of budding wing options outside of Clarkson. It’s a refreshing thought having Ingram succeed Bryant at small forward and can be an immediate option on offense as a rookie. Ingram provides teams with additional flexibility since he can slide over to the 4, which he played predominantly at as a freshman at Duke.
Teams could be enamored more with a possible transcendent talent on the wing and not a rare point-forward hybrid.
Simmons has the ability to become a perennial All-Star in the league and a dynamic talent, but he is a tougher player to fit into an existing team with the Lakers perhaps the most difficult out of those in the lottery. Ingram is simply the easier fit right between Russell and Clarkson in the backcourt and Randle at power forward.
With the potential issues of Simmons’ fit and the lack of another player with legitimate top of the draft upside, the Lakers could perceive the lottery as Ingram or bust anyways.
Adding a Buddy Hield, Dragan Bender or Jaylen Brown only is additional fuel to add to a turnaround season next year and having their 2017 first round pick convey to the 76ers outside the top-3. Next year’s class has better high-end talent (Harry Giles, Josh Jackson, Jayson Tatum) and is also projected to have a deeper pool of high-upside prospects beyond the top part of the draft.
Relinquishing their pick Tuesday won’t necessarily be an unmitigated catastrophe as they’re at least guaranteed to keep their first rounder in 2017. Stuck with four emerging talents all lacking transcendent upside and also aren't compatible with each other entering next year’s draft and then losing the pick to Philadelphia then would arguably be worse than losing it this year.
If the Lakers convey their pick to the 76ers this season, they will owe the Magic their 2018 selection (top-5 protected) or 2019 selection (unprotected). The dream scenario, if the Lakers are patient enough and lucky enough to do this, is to keep their pick this year and in 2017 because they will gain an extra first rounder as 2018 goes to the 76ers automatically and the first round pick debt to the Magic becomes second rounders in 2017 and 2018.
