The Memphis Grizzlies clawed their way to a sixth straight playoff berth, despite having just one of their regular starters (Zach Randolph) still on the team and available to play by the time the season ended. Marc Gasol and Mike Conley were both knocked out for the season with injuries in the second half while Jeff Green and Courtney Lee were both traded away at the deadline. Dave Joerger mixed and matched his way for most of the second half of the year and kept the Grizzlies competitive. Ultimately, the team was overwhelmed by the Spurs in the first round, but it shouldn’t take away from a performance that overcame circumstances under which most teams would have folded.

Heading into the summer, the Grizzlies are facing a potential major makeover. At the top, Joerger was fired despite getting to the playoffs in all three years that he led the team. This seems like a harsh penalty, given that Joerger did one of the better coaching jobs in the league this year with a roster that was constantly in flux. Night to night it was hard to know who would be available to play, with only Matt Barnes and JaMychal Green appearing in as many as 70 games for the Grizzlies. Other teams like the Pelicans, Knicks and Bulls saw their seasons fall apart under similar injury plagued circumstances. Joerger reemerged quickly with Sacramento, where he’ll attempt to reverse a long stretch of losing, while the Grizzlies will move on with a new coach. 

There has been a long list of candidates both rumored and already interviewed. Frank Vogel and Jeff Hornacek are the experienced head coaches being considered, with the rest being current assistants including Patrick Ewing and Ettore Messina of the Hornets and Spurs respectively at the top of that list. A return engagement for Lionel Hollins has also been rumored. Whoever the Grizzlies hire, they are on the record as wanting a better program of player development and to build a culture of winning around Gasol and Conley. 

The first priority is certainly a concern as the Grizzlies haven’t developed an All-Star out one of their own players since Conley. JaMychal Green proved he is worthy of a rotation spot, but the list of players who haven’t done much in the NBA includes Jordan Adams and Jarell Martin of recent vintage and Hasheem Thabeet, Xavier Henry, and Tony Wroten in the past. Getting value from young players can help as the core of the roster ages out and potentially even moves on.

This brings us to the second priority for the new coach: building a culture around Gasol and Conley. The former is coming of a serious injury and the track record of big men who suffer foot/leg injuries isn’t great. NBA history is filled with bigs who have suffered similar injuries and never come back to be able to play. Yao Ming had his career ended with a similar injury and Joel Embiid hasn’t been able to find the court in two years since suffering his foot injury. On the flip side, Zydrunas Ilgauskas suffered major foot issues and was able to come back and be a productive player for years. However, he was much younger than Gasol and did miss almost two whole seasons as he recovered. 

As for Conley being around to help build that culture, he’s a free agent and while he’s indicated staying in Memphis is his first choice, that isn’t a given. He is clearly the top available point guard and one of the better free agents overall. With so much available money and several teams in the market for a PG, Conley could cash in and leave Memphis for a more desirable situation. It seems likely he’ll return, but to base the future around one player is always a risky situation.

The other players likely to be back are veterans Randolph, Tony Allen, and Brandan Wright joined by youngsters Adams and Martin. Randolph and Allen are key members of the squad and a major influence on the “Grit ‘n’ Grind” mentality that has driven Memphis the last few seasons. Both are still productive players, but are clearly on the downside of their careers at this point. Reduced roles in what is possibly their final year in Memphis might be best for both players and the club. Wright’s season was a disaster, as he never got started after injuries of his own and appeared in only 12 games. If healthy, he gives the Grizzlies a high efficiency backup at the PF and C positions. Adams has battled injuries of his own and hasn’t shown much when he’s been able to play. The team has hope he can still be a scorer on the wing, but he has a lot to prove. Martin was force fed minutes this year out of necessity and showed he could have a spot as an athletic big off the bench, but the jury is still out. If he can continue to develop his jump shot, he could potentially even fill a starting role down the line. 

JaMychal Green likely locked up a rotation spot for himself, as he was an unexpected surprise last season. He’s signed for the veteran minimum and has shown the ability to run the floor and be an active presence on both ends. Rotation players on minimum contracts aren’t the type of guys that good squads let get away. Xavier Munford is another young player on a partially guaranteed contract that will at least go to camp with Memphis. He flashed the potential to be a third PG. The Grizzlies will at least take him to camp and let things sort themselves out from there. 

Memphis’ other partially guaranteed player is Vince Carter. After not playing much to start the season, Carter was playing more than 20 minutes per game down the stretch due to all the injuries. Carter is guaranteed $2 million dollars, and for a team that is projected to be tight against the cap, there isn’t reason to pay Carter to not play for them.

Of the Grizzlies' free agents, the team will have some level of interest in bringing back everyone. Matt Barnes and Lance Stephenson seem the most likely to return. Barnes was the team’s best player at the end of the year and in the playoffs. If Memphis can get him back on a reasonable contract, he’s probably the starter at the small forward position come opening night. Stephenson played well after being acquired at the deadline. The Grizzlies will probably pick up the Team Option on his contract and have him back as a bench wing. Jordan Farmar could also return as the backup point guard to Conley. Chris Andersen could be back as a third string veteran option at the center position. 

Of the guys that are probably moving on, given the limitation to what they can pay P.J. Hairston after Charlotte declined his Rookie Scale option, he’s likely to be elsewhere. The wing will already be crowded and Memphis would rather give those minutes to Jordan Adams. Bryce Cotton could be back as a third PG option. The Grizzlies could bring both Cotton and Munford to camp and let them battle it out for a spot. 

With Conley being the major domino that has to fall first for Memphis, this summer could be tricky for Memphis. They are unlikely to start the offseason with any cap space to make major additions. If Conley re-signs, he’ll use up most of the space they could have had available and they are likely down to bringing back their own free agents. If Conley chooses to leave town, the Grizzlies are faced with the question of starting a full scale rebuild. If they rebuild, is a 31-year-old Marc Gasol coming off a major foot injury the guy to rebuild around? And if Conley and Gasol are gone, do you blow up the franchise entirely and deal Randolph and Allen for pieces to aid the rebuild.  

It is rare that a player who isn’t a true face of the franchise type holds so much sway, but Conley has that power this summer. It is imperative that the team and Conley come to terms on his future as soon as possible, so that Memphis can move on to putting pieces around their core. Or the Grizzlies start over for the first time in years around a new core of young talent and draft picks.   

Offseason Details

Guaranteed Contracts (6): Jordan Adams, Tony Allen, Marc Gasol, Jarell Martin, Zach Randolph, Brandan Wright

Partial/Non-Guaranteed Contracts (3): Vince Carter, JaMychal Green, Xavier Munford

Potential Free Agents (7): Chris Andersen (UFA), Matt Barnes (UFA), Mike Conley (UFA), Bryce Cotton (RFA), Jordan Farmar (UFA), P.J. Hairston (UFA), Lance Stephenson (TO – UFA) 

“Dead” Money on Cap (1): $163,296 (Jamaal Franklin) 

First Round Draft Picks (as of 5/2/16): #17

Maximum Cap Space: $41,032,020

Projected Cap Space: None. $6,831,196 over