The NBA is headed for a summer of change unlike any we’ve seen in several years. First of all, around 200 and 225 players (approximately 40 percent of the league) will be free agents this offseason. That alone would open the league up for a massive reset.

But the peculiarity of the situation goes beyond the number of available free agents. The salary cap is continuing to climb as it is projected at a record $109 million for the 19-20 season. The NBA has stayed consistent with this projection, so it’s likely to settle right around that figure. That means maximum contracts raise in value, as do exceptions. That’s more money available for those 200 plus free agents.

The final part of that preceding paragraph is most important: just less than half of the league's teams project to have cap space this summer. As you can see in the tables below, there is expected to be somewhere between $500 million and $550 million in available cap space and exceptions this summer. That’s in part because many of the questionable contracts signed in the summer of 2016 (when the cap spiked) are coming off the books. Additionally, many players have signed shorter contracts over the past few seasons as teams begin to value offering fewer years in contracts. This has multiple teams beginning the summer with incredible flexibility.

Finally, it matters who the free agents are and which teams have cap space. If teams that have historically not been free agent destinations have cap space, and there aren’t prime free agents available, it usually results in teams retaining their own guys. There just isn’t the benefit of going big for a player who you will end up overpaying.

This summer, that isn’t the case. To start with, there are several prime teams who project to have enough cap space, or the path to enough cap space, to sign one or two max free agents. This includes the four teams in the two biggest markets in the NBA: the Brooklyn Nets, New York Knicks, Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers. Along with those teams, you have promising young teams like the Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings. And then after some draft day dealing, teams like the Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers and New Orleans Pelicans all are in range for considerable cap space.

There is a mix of good teams, big market teams, and teams that are ready to win that have cap space. Now they just need someone to spend that money on. And this free agent class is a good one at the top. Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker, Jimmy Butler, Khris Middleton, Tobias Harris and (despite their injuries during the NBA Finals) the Warriors duo of Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson are all free agents this summer. That’s not only All-Star level talent, but a really good start to All-NBA honors. Add to that list promising restricted free agents like Kristaps Porzingis and D'Angelo Russell. There are also a lot of good to very good role players available. That’s a lot of talent on the market.

The Lakers already struck big with the Anthony Davis trade and have done what they can to add a third star around him and LeBron James, and then fill out the roster via exceptions. With nearly 40 percent of the league hitting free agency, this is a good summer to bargain hunting. Cap space is abundant, but it will go quickly. That means some good players will be left without a chair when the music stops.

   
   

A few notes on the projections in the tables:

  • The NBA’s current cap projection of $109 million is used.
  • Rookie Scale, Minimum Scale and Exceptions all bump up accordingly by the percentage of the cap increase.
  • Projections are made on which options will be picked up (both player and team), and which partial/non-guaranteed players will be waived or kept.
  • No extension projections are made.
  • Draft Pick Cap Holds are factored in based on 2019 NBA Draft results
  • Starting Cap Space = the amount of space each team will have without renouncing or waiving any players/picks. Projected 2019 draft picks not included.
  • Maximum Cap Space = the amount of space each team could have if they waived or renounced all players/picks who are not fully guaranteed.
  • Projected Cap Space = the amount of space each team is projected to have after roster decisions are made.

 

Team

Starting
 Cap Space

Maximum
 Cap Space

Projected
 Cap Space

Atlanta

 $       (8,876,883)

 $      24,582,725

 $      13,634,589

Boston

 $     (60,736,998)

 $      38,850,344

 $      34,079,178

Brooklyn

 $       (4,624,741)

 $      68,671,776

 $      68,671,776

Charlotte

 $     (45,309,666)

 $      11,167,339

 $     (40,059,666)

Chicago

 $     (8,247,653)

 $      28,253,523

 $      23,838,161

Cleveland

 $     (47,741,525)

 $     (15,248,598)

 $     (35,931,525)

Dallas

 $     (28,133,502)

 $      47,483,322

 $      29,848,296

Denver

 $     (37,268,052)

 $      16,949,071

 $      16,949,071

Detroit

 $     (36,516,530)

 $       (7,585,146)

 $     (36,616,530)

Golden State

 $     (70,201,746)

 $      20,532,884

 $     (70,201,746)

Houston

 $     (53,480,142)

 $     (15,944,469)

 $     (50,367,690)

Indiana

 $     (47,520,442)

 $      35,781,906

 $      34,101,266

LA Clippers

 $       (6,030,724)

 $      57,485,733

 $      51,833,309

LA Lakers

 $     (19,689,800)

 $      32,005,199

 $      32,005,199

Memphis

 $     (32,892,241)

 $      34,902,753

 $     (21,932,241)

Miami

 $     (41,627,358)

 $     (23,931,328)

 $     (36,006,473)

Milwaukee

 $     (28,823,560)

 $      34,701,788

 $      19,549,620

Minnesota

 $     (58,837,323)

 $       (1,403,724)

 $     (58,637,323)

New Orleans

 $       (4,485,940)

 $      49,344,424

 $      30,268,632

New York

 $       (4,540,198)

 $      77,477,855

 $      70,527,253

Oklahoma City

 $     (49,403,444)

 $     (38,236,194)

 $     (49,773,077)

Orlando

 $     (44,116,534)

 $      20,706,945

 $     (44,116,534)

Philadelphia

 $     (31,853,663)

 $      61,446,926

 $     (31,853,663)

Phoenix

 $       (5,937,435)

 $      27,260,906

 $      14,093,450

Portland

 $     (42,027,737)

 $     (20,207,574)

 $     (42,027,737)

Sacramento

 $     (20,370,827)

 $      62,604,235

 $      62,604,235

San Antonio

 $     (23,752,739)

 $        8,936,253

 $     (23,752,739)

Toronto

 $     (80,568,216)

 $      20,127,784

 $     (69,485,378)

Utah

 $     (36,723,620)

 $      18,944,335

 $     (36,723,620)

Washington

 $     (73,672,235)

 $      10,318,439

 $     (68,772,235)

Sorted by Maximum Cap Space

Team

Maximum
 Cap Space

New York

 $          77,477,855

Brooklyn

 $          68,671,776

Sacramento

 $          62,604,235

Philadelphia

 $          61,446,926

LA Clippers

 $          57,485,733

New Orleans

 $          49,344,424

Dallas

 $          47,483,322

Boston

 $          38,850,344

Indiana

 $          35,781,906

Memphis

 $          34,902,753

Milwaukee

 $          34,701,788

LA Lakers

 $          32,005,199

Chicago

 $          28,253,523

Phoenix

 $          27,260,906

Atlanta

 $          24,582,725

Orlando

 $          20,706,945

Golden State

 $          20,532,884

Toronto

 $          20,127,784

Utah

 $          18,944,335

Denver

 $          16,949,071

Charlotte

 $          11,167,339

Washington

 $          10,318,439

San Antonio

 $           8,936,253

Minnesota

 $          (1,403,724)

Detroit

 $          (7,585,146)

Cleveland

 $         (15,248,598)

Houston

 $         (15,944,469)

Portland

 $         (20,207,574)

Miami

 $         (23,931,328)

Oklahoma City

 $         (38,236,194)

Sorted by Projected Cap Space

Team

Projected
 Cap Space

New York

 $        70,527,253

Brooklyn

 $        68,671,776

Sacramento

 $        62,604,235

LA Clippers

 $        51,833,309

Indiana

 $        34,101,266

Boston

 $        34,079,178

LA Lakers

 $        32,005,199

New Orleans

 $        30,268,632

Dallas

 $        29,848,296

Chicago

 $        23,838,161

Milwaukee

 $        19,549,620

Denver

 $        16,949,071

Phoenix

 $        14,093,450

Atlanta

 $        13,634,589

Memphis

 $       (21,932,241)

San Antonio

 $       (23,752,739)

Philadelphia

 $       (31,853,663)

Cleveland

 $       (35,931,525)

Miami

 $       (36,006,473)

Detroit

 $       (36,616,530)

Utah

 $       (36,723,620)

Charlotte

 $       (40,059,666)

Portland

 $       (42,027,737)

Orlando

 $       (44,116,534)

Oklahoma City

 $       (49,773,077)

Houston

 $       (50,367,690)

Minnesota

 $       (58,637,323)

Washington

 $       (68,772,235)

Toronto

 $       (69,485,378)

Golden State

 $       (70,201,746)