First things first: an apologia for my predictions of last season.

What I got right:
San Antonio Spurs 59-23 (off by 0), Western Conference Champs
Los Angeles Clippers 36-46 (off by 1)
Golden State Warriors 32-50 (off by 2)
Memphis Grizzlies 43-39 (off by 2)
Boston Celtics 43-39 (off by 2)
Toronto Raptors 35-47 (off by 2)
Sacramento Kings 53-29 (off by 3)
Cleveland Cavaliers 45-37 (off by 3)
Orlando Magic 33-49 (off by 3)
Houston Rockets 47-35 (off by 4)
New Jersey Nets 38-44 (off by 4)
Detroit Pistons 58-24 (off by 4), Eastern Conference Champs

What I got wrong:
Pistons over Spurs in 7
Phoenix Suns 35-47 (off by 27)
Utah Jazz 48-34 (off by 22)
Seattle Supersonics 33-49 (off by 19)
New Orleans Hornets 35-47 (off by 17)
Portland Trail Blazers 42-40 (off by 15)
Chicago Bulls 32-50 (off by 15)
Atlanta Hawks 28-54 (off by 15)
Washington Wizards 31-51 (off by 14)
Minnesota Timberwolves 57-25 (off by 13)
Dallas Mavericks 45-37 (off by 13)
Los Angeles Lakers 46-36 (off by 12)
Indiana Pacers 55-27 (off by 11)

Were my errors excusable?  Not in most cases:

--While I was joined by most analysts in underestimating the impact Nash would have on the Suns, I especially failed to recognize the Suns as a sleeping giant; even without Nash on board, that team would have won significantly more than 35 games.

--The Jazz, Hornets, and Trail Blazers were hit with major injuries, but whatever the reasons, they were much worse than I imagined they could be.

--As with the Suns, few expected a division title in Seattle, but I had gone so far as to project a decline from 2003-2004, even though the Sonics returned everybody but Barry and had a cast of young, improving players.

--After overestimating the growth of the Baby Bulls for the previous two seasons, I gave up on them.  I may have been justified in losing patience with Curry and Chandler, but the successes of Gordon, Deng, and Duhon were hardly surprising to me.  Anticipating their impact ought to have led me to throw a few more wins Chicago?s way.

--The Hawks were just plain dismal.  So I gave ?em 28 wins instead of 13?

--I grossly underrated the Wizards.  I thought Antawn Jamison and Gilbert Arenas had reached their potential with the Warriors.

--Who knew the Timberwolves would implode?  Nobody, but nobody had been overrating the team or their coach for as many years as I had, either.  A fall from their stellar 2003-2004 was inevitable.

--Somehow I thought Nash wouldn?t improve the Suns, yet would be missed badly by the Mavericks.  Go figure?

--The Lakers fielded a lousy roster.  Neither Wilt nor MJ could have taken them to the playoffs, so believing in Kobe Bryant was dubious at best.  Still, they could have been a tad better than they were.

--The only absolutely excusable mistake I made was with the Pacers.  Nobody could have predicted their involvement in the worst (best?) fight in NBA history or?and especially?the imbalanced reaction of the league office.  I at least had the foresight to predict a decline from 60-plus wins to a total of 55, where some were calling them favorites for the championship after adding only Stephen Jackson in the offseason.

Now that we?ve thoroughly battered my credibility, I can treat my remaining readers to my 2005-2006 preview.  We start with the Pacific Division, followed by another division each day next week, and culminating with my complete standings, playoffs, and award predictions on October 31.

Golden State Warriors
2004-2005 Prediction: 32-50, fifth in Pacific Division
2004-2005 Finish: 34-48, tied for fourth in Pacific Division

Barring an injury to Baron Davis or Jason Richardson, this team will pick up where it ended last season.  The Warriors had the swagger of a contender by season?s end, and it would take a disastrous start to derail that confidence. ? The comparisons drawn to last year?s Suns are appropriate, but these Warriors should have better defense at the all-important bookends?center and point guard.  Of course, they have no offensive presence who comes close to matching Amare, which means their ceiling is lower than Phoenix?s. ? Davis? numbers do not reflect just what an incredible shot in the arm he gave this comatose franchise.  Aside from inspiring that winning swagger, his most significant contribution on the court might have been his pressure defense and penchant for causing turnovers, as this at last allowed the Warriors to succeed playing the running style at which they?ve flailed for the past few years.  Davis can be expected to improve his scoring numbers in a healthy season. ? Jason Richardson put up numbers to match his ability once Davis arrived.  His court sense, handling, and defense have improved dramatically since his rookie year, and he is now a second-tier star at shooting guard, just below the likes of Kobe and Ray Allen. ? Right now, Pietrus and Dunleavy are one complete player.  The former must score like he did in the European Championships, and the latter must cut down on his mental lapses, in order to give the Warriors two complete players at small forward. ? Down the road, Ike Diogu, Chris Taft, and Andres Biedrins constitute a promising interior scoring trio; for now, the team will settle for modest returns while riding Troy Murphy and wildly overpaid Adonal Foyle.  Given the aforementioned trio, and observing that Murphy can play some center, the Warriors really have to be regretting the Foyle contract.  Murphy at center is far from ideal, however, as he has trouble finishing around the rim. ? Ultimately, the frontline isn?t there yet, and they will be exposed come playoff time. ?

PG Davis/Fisher/Ellis
SG Richardson/Pietrus
SF Dunleavy/Cabarkapa/Cheaney
PF Murphy/Diogu/Taft
C Foyle/Biedrins

2005-2006 Prediction: 48-34, first in Pacific Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Warriors just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?

The league?s best backcourt ran opponents ragged and had enough left in the tank to make all the big shots, too. ? Diogu and Biedrins provided a credible post scoring threat when the game slowed down, and Foyle and Murphy forgot last season?s first half and defended as they did down the stretch last year, only better. ? Opponents failed to keep them under 120 points during a whirlwind playoff tour. ?

Wait, no, the Warriors just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?

Diogu, Taft, and Biedrins were too inexperienced to make an impact, and Foyle kept receiving millions for his offensive ineptitude, so the team was once again unable to score in the paint. ? Neither Pietrus nor Dunleavy could put it all together. ? Injury struck Baron yet again. ?

Los Angeles Clippers
2004-2005 Prediction: 36-46, third in Pacific Division
2004-2005 Finish: 37-45, third in Pacific Division

As good as the ever-improving frontcourt of Corey Maggette, Elton Brand, Chris Kaman, and Chris Wilcox is the Clippers? lack of stoppers is going to find them once again buried in the Western Conference. ? The new backcourt is a wild card.  Cassell will likely be the whiny, only somewhat productive point guard he was last year in Minnesota, but if he turns it around, he constitutes an upgrade over Jaric and keeps the Clippers competitive against any opposing point man.  Don?t hold your breath, though.  All the Clippers really need from him are some big fourth quarters while they fight for a playoff berth, and that?s because Livingston is the next big thing at point guard. ? Mobley is a more dangerous scorer than Bobby Simmons, as well as a more gifted defender, but he?s already overpaid and isn?t renowned for building chemistry with teammates. ? Mobley and Cassell, at the very least, promise to attempt bushels of three-pointers?and at a decent percentage?which will improve the Clippers? scoring efficiency considerably. ? Aside from Livingston, the lone holdover in the backcourt is Quinton Ross, who impressed with his defense and will continue to thrive in his limited role. ? Kaman and Wilcox have excelled for stretches (very limited stretches, in Wilcox?s case) but have to take the next steps to sustained intensity and focus.  Kaman, in particular, is loaded with talent but is frequently overpowered defensively.  If Wilcox hasn?t learned the game by now, is it reasonable to expect he ever will?  Fortunately, the Clippers have both a good scorer in Rodney White and a good defender in Zeljco Rebraca, as well as promising rookie James Singleton, on the bench. ? Brand and Maggette are known quantities, except for how many games they?ll play.  Full seasons from both assure the Clippers of a couple more wins. ? Mike Dunleavy and management have slowly shaped this into perhaps the best team the Clippers have ever had.  Amazing what a little patience and continuity will do, eh? ?

PG Cassell/Livingston/Ewing
SG Mobley/Ross
SF Maggette/White/Korolev
PF Brand/Wilcox/Singleton
C Kaman/Rebraca

2005-2006 Prediction: 41-41, fourth in Pacific Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Clippers just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?

Timely explosive performances from Cassell and Mobley augmented the consistent excellence of Brand and Maggette to push the Clippers into the playoffs, where opponents were unprepared for the look of this new contender. ? Rivals found no defender for Livingston, who ignited a second unit of unsung heroes. ? Shaq, Duncan, and the Wallaces exercised the options in their contracts allowing them to quit after Memorial Day. ?

Wait, no, the Clippers just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?

The Clippers were unable to shake their same old mediocrity. ? Cassell disrupted, Livingston failed to develop, and Mobley chucked away night after night, leaving the backcourt a mess. ? Wilcox took a page out of Clippers? history and looked out for his payday instead of the team?s best interests, and Korolev was unready for the NBA, depriving the Clippers of needed depth. ? After finishing in the middle of the lottery pack, a lucky draw came their way. ?

Los Angeles Lakers
2004-2005 Prediction: 46-36, second in Pacific Division
2004-2005 Finish: 34-48, tied for fourth in Pacific Division

It must be reminded: Kobe Bryant is just as much a three-time NBA champ as Shaq is.  Bryant is much maligned, and rightly so, but for all his faults he dominates every aspect of the game he chooses to. ? Phil Jackson?s return will do wonders for Lamar Odom.  Bryant might not like it at first, but the team will be considerably better if Odom is handed the lion?s share of responsibility for initiating the offense, a move that would force opponents to give up collapsing on Bryant at all times. ? Beyond Bryant and Odom, this roster is pitiful. ? Aaron McKie is, at this stage in his career, a broke man?s Ron Harper for the triangle offense, and Vujacic has not established a role in any NBA offense, much less one so sophisticated. ? The Kwame Brown trade was a good deal; not that Brown is great, but Butler was superfluous and Atkins unwanted, so landing a big man project was a fine idea.  Brown?s defense could actually compliment pleasant surprise Chris Mihm nicely. ? That the draft netted Andrew Bynum indicates management is smartly looking at the big picture instead of being blinded by Jackson?s return about the present roster?s prospects for success. ?

PG McKie/Vujacic/Parker
SG Bryant/George
SF Odom/Walton/Jones
PF Brown/Cook/Medvedenko
C Mihm/Bynum/Blount

2005-2006 Prediction: 38-44, fifth in Pacific Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Lakers just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?

A late season surge carried over into the postseason, where Bryant?s unconscious clutch play proved too much for entire team defenses to stop. ? Odom was rejuvenated by the institution of the triangle, matching the best of Scottie Pippen?s Hall of Fame seasons. ? Kwame at last broke out and became a force at the defensive end and scored just enough to give Mihm a chance to work in the post. ? Some Zen didn?t hurt, either. ?

Wait, no, the Lakers just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?

Putting this motley crew into the playoffs proved too tall a task even for the Zen Master. ? Mihm fell short of last season?s numbers, while Kwame flopped for another team. ? McKie was so ineffective at both ends that the Lakers actually missed Chucky Atkins. ?

Phoenix Suns
2004-2005 Prediction: 35-47, fourth in Pacific Division
2004-2005 Finish: 62-20, first in Pacific Division

Last year?s 62 wins were the result of one of those magical seasons where damn near everything goes right.  The Suns won?t come close to that total this year, especially not with Amare Stoudemire out half the season, but their offseason transformation leaves them better equipped to do battle with the Spurs in May.  Their task for the first half is just to tread water and get healthy to make their run late. ? Kurt Thomas, Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, and Brian Grant have gotten the attention, but the best defender the Suns acquired this summer is James Jones.  The Amare injury ensures an opportunity for major minutes, and Jones will not disappoint. ? Bell and Diaw both underperformed last year, and both stand to benefit from joining the runnin? Suns, a team that values steals and fastbreak points.  Bell and Jones will be asked to replace the three-point prowess of Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson.  They might not reach the heights of their predecessors, but they will suffice to keep the Suns in the win column most nights. ? Given the success of the system in place, the Suns might even get contributions (from beyond the three point line, anyway) from Dijon Thompson and Eddie House. ? The center spot is going to be ugly even when Amare joins the lineup at power forward.  Thomas, Grant, and Pat Burke are good for a few rebounds and midrange jumpers each, but foul trouble plagues all three of them, and even when on the court, they have no prayer of shutting down good back-to-the-basket scorers. ? Since a return to form this year seems unlikely for Amare, and since the team stands no chance of competing without him, the Suns might be best served packing it in this year and regrouping for 2006-2007. ?

PG Nash/Barbosa/House
SG Bell/Diaw/Thompson
SF Jones/Jackson
PF Marion/Grant/Stoudemire
C Thomas/Burke

2005-2006 Prediction: 46-36, second in Pacific Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Suns just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?

Amare returned by March, was in shape by April, and dominated May and June. ? Nash repeated his MVP play of a year ago and picked up the scoring slack left by Johnson and Richardson. ? The defense was just effective enough to create even more transition offense, and this time around not even San Antonio could slow them down. ?

Wait, no, the Suns just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?

Taking a cautious approach with Amare left the team buried in the standings until it was too late to make a run, so the Suns pulled a San Antonio circa 1997, tanking the season in order to land their own Twin Tower in the draft. ?

Sacramento Kings
2004-2005 Prediction: 53-29, first in Pacific Division
2004-2005 Finish: 50-32, second in Pacific Division

From Mike Bibby, Vlade Divac, Chris Webber, and Doug Christie to Brad Miller, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, and Bonzi Wells, the Maloofs and their front office have done an admirable job of finding talent where it?s available and committing to those players who stick.  Unfortunately, it?s doubtful the additions of Wells and Abdur-Rahim will yield the results the Kings and their fans have come to expect. ? Wells has been ceremoniously discarded by his first three NBA teams, and with good reason.  Even in his best year in Portland, he was a streaky shooter and he gambled too much on defense.  The worst of Wells can bring down a whole team.  The Kings would have been better served signing a cheap vet for the bench, while letting Francisco Garcia and Kevin Martin handle the bulk of the minutes at the two.  Martin?s rookie returns were unspectacular, but he has the gifts to be the slashing, athletic counterpart to Bibby?s drive-and-dish and Peja Stojakovic?s deep shooting.  Both Martin and Garcia can be counted on for more consistent jump shooting, so important to Rick Adelman?s offense, than can Bonzi. ? In Miller and Abdur-Rahim, the Kings have two former All-Stars who are still capable of performing at such a level, and who should complement each other well: Abdur-Rahim will work the baseline, while Miller will feed on penetration and opportunities for putbacks.  The two won?t intimidate anybody with their defense, but they?ll work hard on the boards, and Miller, at least, doesn?t get burned much. ? Depth continues to be a strength for Sacramento.  Beyond the aforementioned Martin and Garcia, the Kings can turn to rebounding specialist Kenny Thomas, point defender Jason Hart, post defender Brian Skinner, or black hole Corliss Williamson. ? While still a very good team, the post-Webber-and-Divac era Kings have little promise of a championship. ?

PG Bibby/Hart
SG Wells/Martin
SF Stojakovic/Garcia/Williamson
PF Abdur-Rahim/Thomas
C Miller/Skinner

2005-2006 Prediction: 44-38, third in Pacific Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Kings just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?

Miller and Abdur-Rahim both turned in All-Star seasons to keep the Kings competitive with the elite frontcourts of the league. ? Bibby remembered his 2002 playoff performance, Wells approached his career playoff high (45) at least a couple times, and?what?s this?!?Peja made some clutch treys as the Kings survived a grueling run as underdogs. ?

Wait, no, the Kings just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?

Wells ruined yet another locker room, and the team imploded. ? The curse of Abdur-Rahim and his playoff drought continues. ?