Dallas Mavericks
2004-2005 Prediction: 45-37, third in Southwest Division
2004-2005 Finish: 58-24, second in Southwest Division

Having lost Steve Nash, Michael Finley, Antawn Jamison, and Antoine Walker over the last one-plus year, the Mavericks are still loaded with offense.  What keeps them among the league?s elite in spite of their losses, though, is their ever-improving defense.  Coach Avery Johnson is backed by experienced assistants, but the intensity and defensive discipline is all his own. ? Speaking of defense, after years of criticism, Dirk Nowitzki astonished most by emerging as a consistently good defender.  He and the somehow still motivated Erick Dampier aren?t frightening, but they are by far the best defensive duo this team has had up front in years.  And obviously, they?ll outscore most big men they face. ? DaSagana Diop?  Why? ? Marquis Daniels and Jerry Stackhouse will find Doug Christie taking their minutes if they can?t or won?t buy into the commitment to defense, but at least the two are assured of increased scoring responsibilities with Finley gone. ? Josh Howard, too, can be expected to score more, but the Mavericks really need him to play the sort of defense of which he is capable all the time. ? Lost in the Steve Nash worship last season was the quiet effectiveness of Jason Terry and Devin Harris as his replacements in Dallas.  Neither has his stroke or his passing touch, but they can run the break and drive and dish more than adequately. ? Keith Van Horn sure looked good in his half-season as a Mav, but remember, Raef LaFrentz once seemed like a great fit here, too.  Like LaFrentz, Van Horn will probably settle into a role of hitting loads of open jumpers and doing little else. ? While Dirk keeps ?em in contention, Dallas has matchup problems with every other elite team, especially in the middle, and now they have young comers nipping at their heels. ?

PG Terry/Harris/Armstrong
SG Daniels/Christie/Strickland
SF Howard/Stackhouse
PF Nowitzki/Van Horn
C Dampier/Diop/Mbenga/Podkolzin

2005-2006 Prediction: 54-28, third in Southwest Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Mavericks just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?
Defense happened.  Christie proved the summer?s smartest signing, as he and Avery Johnson made everybody on the team defend smarter and with more intensity. ? Daniels, healthy and given more minutes, made Finley?s loss go unnoticed. ? Nowitzki merely matched last season?s numbers?but carried that performance into the playoffs this time around. ?

Wait, no, the Mavericks just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?
Dampier and Diop remembered they are no longer playing for contracts. ? Nowitzki regressed and clashed with Daniels and Howard as the latter two sought bigger shares of the spotlight. ? An injury in the backcourt left the Mavericks playing Darrell Armstrong and Erick Strickland too much to contend for the playoffs. ? Cuban said his prayers, and the Mavs? one ball was drawn. ?

Houston Rockets
2004-2005 Prediction: 47-35, second in Southwest Division
2004-2005 Finish: 51-31, third in Southwest Division

Fresh legs for Yao Ming, coupled with the springs-for-legs of Stromile Swift, mean Jeff Van Gundy possesses an even scarier defense with which to work.  Dikembe Mutombo was terrific in relief last season, and moving Juwon Howard to the bench full-time makes the defense better by default. ? Both Yao and Tracy McGrady received too little credit for their 2004-2005 campaigns, especially at the defensive end.  These two already perform at a championship level; it?s the rest of the roster that needs to catch up. ? Rafer Alston hasn?t proven he can lead a team or even start an entire season.  Given that McGrady is the focal point of the offense, however, all Alston really needs to do is hit open threes and push the ball in transition; this seems a reasonable assignment with little risk?unless Alston decides he?s quitting again. ? Derek Anderson adds length to a shooting guard position badly in need of it, but unless the number is set at 40 or fewer, the smart gambler takes the under on his number of appearances this season. ?Luther Head is, er, turning heads with his sweet shooting in the preseason.  He doesn?t project as a point guard long-term, but he?ll get minutes as a combo spark both early in the season (with Sura injured) and late in the season (when Anderson goes down with a paper cut). ? Jon Barry was ignited from the moment he arrived in Houston.  Even reverting to his career percentages, he is a reliable catch-and-shoot option off the bench.  However, will he find a rhythm if he loses time to Anderson and Head?  David Wesley likewise saw his numbers rise after coming over in trade.  The Rockets are displaying that trait of a true contender: role players are starting to look better than they looked elsewhere. ? If the Rockets played another style, they could contend for the most points scored in the NBA; as it is, they might well hold their opponents to the fewest points in the league. ?

PG Alston/Head/Norris/Sura
SG Wesley/Barry/Anderson
SF McGrady/Bowen/Glover
PF Swift/Howard
C Yao/Mutombo

2005-2006 Prediction: 57-25, second in Southwest Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Rockets just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?
Swift helped the frontline overcome the likes of Amare, Dirk, and Duncan. ? The Rockets were able to ride a stronger Yao more than in the past when opponents locked down on McGrady. ? Rafer, reminded of his days in Miami, hit big jump shots and didn?t distract. ? Wesley, Barry, and Head fed off the doubles and zones needed to contain McGrady and Yao, hitting their share of open shots, too. ?

Wait, no, the Rockets just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?
Swift failed to meet the expectations placed on him?again. ? Anderson and Sura struggled with injuries, Barry and Wesley looked old, and Head looked young and inexperienced.  The backcourt was a mess, and nobody came out of the woodwork to hit the jumpers that were falling last season. ? Yao and McGrady were slow out of the gates again, but this time they couldn?t recover. ?

Memphis Grizzlies
2004-2005 Prediction: 43-39, fourth in Southwest Division
2004-2005 Finish: 45-37, fourth in Southwest Division

The Grizzlies made bold moves in the offseason, but they still seem likely to fall back in the Western Conference pack. ? The huge trade which sent out James Posey and Jason Williams hands Shane Battier the more prominent role he deserves.  Battier goes unnoticed as a truly great defender and reliable deep shooter; in short, he is exactly the player he was at Duke. ? Eddie Jones is still a better scorer than Posey, Williams, or Andre Emmet, but his minutes have declined in each of the past four seasons, so he cannot single-handedly replace their contributions.  Enter Damon Stoudamire.  He, like Williams before him, will post an impressive assist-to-turnover ratio and play pitiful defense.  Unlike Williams, he will also shoot a good percentage from the line and beyond the arc.  Will that satisfy Coach Fratello enough to overlook his maddening tendency to dribble the varnish off the floor?  That certainly constitutes a change from Williams? game.  If Bobby Jackson can stay healthy, he might offer the up-tempo look Williams brought. ? Pau Gasol will once again be shuffled between power forward and center.  His soft touch and variety of moves both facing up and backing down really ought to result in higher scoring totals than he has posted in his career, but having Stoudamire as his point guard won?t help toward that end. ? Mike Miller remains a threat both as a slasher and as a spot-up player.  If he had any toughness whatsoever, he?d be a dangerous weapon.  Instead, he should probably lose his starting spot to Battier. ? Is Hakim Warrick a tweener or a forward whose athleticism and versatility transcend either the three or the four?  I?m inclined to lean toward the latter, but he might spend his rookie season looking like the former while he adjusts to NBA speed at both spots. ? Lorenzen Wright has no single selling point, but is near the top of the heap of great bodies who fill the middle without killing your team?or producing. ?

PG Stoudamire/Jackson
SG Jones/Jones
SF Battier/Miller
PF Gasol/Cardinal/Warrick
C Wright/Tsakalidis

2005-2006 Prediction: 35-47, fourth in Southwest Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Grizzlies just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?
Gasol and Miller toughened, Eddie Jones was rejuvenated by the change of scenery, and Stoudamire defied all reasonable expectation and proved capable of running the Grizzlies offense, which thrived on its versatility. ? All that, and their only playoff opponent was Pat Summit and the Tennessee Volunteers. ?

Wait, no, the Grizzlies just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?
A cast of mediocre players lived up to their billing, but Jones continued to age, Jackson spent half the season modeling the NBA?s new dress code, and Wright pouted after his demand for a trade was met with little demand by other teams. ?

New Orleans Hornets
2004-2005 Prediction: 35-47, fifth in Southwest Division
2004-2005 Finish: 18-64, fifth in Southwest Division

Yesterday?s trade was a terrific one for the Hornets, contrary to typical reactions.  Jamaal Magloire had peaked as a player?a good center, for sure?but in measuring his loss, he is not a player around whom you build a franchise. ? Neither is Desmond Mason such a player, but he meets a far greater need on the wing and fits the franchise?s mission to assemble a corps of exciting young talents.  Mason could lead his new team in scoring, now that he finally gets to be a primary option in an offense. ? If there is a downside to acquiring Mason, it is pushing Bostjan Nachbar back in the depth chart.  While Mason, Chris Paul, and J.R. Smith are likely to struggle from outside, Nachbar, who is showing off his hot shooting in the preseason, will be the lone relevant deep threat on the team, and now he?s relegated to the bench. ? Chris Andersen has quietly improved in every season of his career, to the point where he is now a starting-caliber defender.  His athleticism is his only ticket to offensive relevance, but whaddyaknow, he plays on a team with running point men who will reward him for getting down the floor and skying for lobs.  In addition to acquiring Mason, his emergence justifies trading Magloire. ? Paul and the underrated Speedy Claxton probably bring comparable games right now, but Paul can be expected to shoot more often, and certainly more effectively, than Claxton does.  That alone would merit starting him right away, but he will also bring needed exposure to the team. ? J.R. Smith is a fine finisher already and will continue to improve, but he has virtually no playmaking abilities and will be wholly reliant on his point guards to find him advantageous opportunities.  His shooting percentages won?t rise significantly until he can create good shots for himself. ? Kirk Snyder will get a better chance for the young Hornets than he did for Jerry Sloan.  He has a lot to learn about team basketball, but his physical gifts alone will carry him to vastly improved numbers as a sophomore.  I still expect a long and fruitful career for him. ? Maciej Lampe and Arvydas Macijauskas have shown promise in the preseason, but they?ve also shown the limitations which are going to leave them logging the majority of their regular season minutes on the bench. ?

PG Paul/Claxton
SG Smith/Macijauskas/Snyder
SF Mason/Nachbar/Butler
PF Brown/West
C Andersen/Lampe

2005-2006 Prediction: 14-68, fifth in Southwest Division

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Hornets just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?
The other 29 teams donated a championship as part of the Katrina relief effort. ?

Wait, no, the Hornets just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?
The Hornets endured a rough season, but they were rewarded with steady improvement by all their raw talents and the number one pick in the upcoming draft. ?

San Antonio Spurs
2004-2005 Prediction: 59-23, first in Southwest Division, West Champs
2004-2005 Finish: 59-23, first in Southwest Division, NBA Champs

The Spurs enter the 2005-2006 season as the heaviest preseason championship favorites since the Bulls following their 87-win campaign of 1995-1996.  They have the rare luxury of being good enough to repeat as champs without improving one bit, and yet they added three free agents. ? Duncan should be going for his fourth straight MVP award this season; he can console himself by looking at his rings. ? Nick Van Exel and Michael Finley (the former, especially) could well go the way of Brent Barry and have lousy seasons, but as long as one or two of the three, plus Robert Horry, have something left for the postseason, the Spurs won?t be wanting for contributions off the bench.  Finley, anyway, seems a good bet to maintain his level of play, if not his numbers, in a role with reduced minutes and reduced pressure.  His defensive limitations will prevent him from taking many minutes from Bruce Bowen, but he could see minutes at shooting guard, too. ? The Finals notwithstanding, Rasho Nesterovic is a better player than Nazr Mohammed.  It?s hard to fault Greg Popovich for anything, but perhaps he needs to show a little more confidence in Rasho, who does precisely what is asked of him: providing consistently good defense. ? Manu Ginobili has left fellow young guard phenom Tony Parker in his dust.  Perhaps that, coupled with a miserable Eurobasket performance, will force Parker to find the pride he needs to play more consistently to his talent? ? Ginobili, meanwhile, will continue to inherit more scoring responsibility and become even more assertive. ? The Spurs can beat you in every conceivable way. ?

PG Parker/Udrih/Van Exel
SG Ginobili/Barry
SF Bowen/Finley
PF Duncan/Horry/Oberto
C Mohammed/Nesterovic

2005-2006 Prediction: 59-23, first in Southwest Division, NBA Champs

Okay, it?s June 2006 and the Spurs just won the NBA Championship.  What happened?
More of the same. ?

Wait, no, the Spurs just won the draft lottery.  Now what happened?
Suddenly, xenophobia ran rampant in the Spurs organization, as all international players were cut. ? Duncan sat out the season in protest.