Boston and Detroit are, barring injuries, a given to be the 1-2 punch at the top of the East. But what about the rest of the conference; who are the other contenders?

- Orlando Magic -

Orlando is third seed right now, but they have been regressing lately while Cleveland is rising quickly.  The Magic are 4-6 over their last 10 although they've recently won two in a row.  They remain top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency; they're 5th in the league in TS%; 3rd in eFG%; they score efficiently.  

They rebound reasonably well (13th in rebound rate) though that has more to do with how ridiculously dominant Dwight Howard has been thus far than anything else.  

They're rough on turnovers, though, not terrible at 16th in turnover rate, but they turn the ball over more than they ought to in order to be consistently effective.  They are a transition team and 9th in the league in pace so that's to be expected.  

Orlando's problem right now is winning at home, where they are 10-8 versus 16-9 on the road.  Their record matches up with their expected wins based on the Pythagorean model, and so it seems reasonable to expect that they will continue at something resembling their current pace which projects them with 49 or 50 wins.  

Cleveland and Washington remain threats, but I think Orlando will finish as the third seed.  If anyone matches them, I believe it will be Washington because I don't think Cleveland's offense will be good enough for them to win as many games as Orlando, and the Magic and Wizards have an identical point differential right now and aren't much separated in terms of league ranking in offensive efficiency and such.

- Washington Wizards -

The Wizards were the subject of an interesting article by Kevin Broom earlier this month, located here on RealGM.
 
In it, he discusses some of the reasons that the Wizards have been performing better without Arenas.  I'll just touch a few of them: Caron Butler is entering his prime and working hard on his game; Randy Ayers simplified the defense, and they have been much improved in this simpler and more effective system; and they've been rebounding more effectively.  The offense has actually been less effective without Arenas, and everyone can't wait until he gets back.  He's aiming for mid-February or mid-March but may sit out the rest of the season if he's not 100% in order to avoid reinjuring the knee and jeopardizing his career.  

The Wizards are playing well now and don't have any particular reason to slow down though John Hollinger has them 28th in strength of schedule which is certainly helping them out.  That said, according to RPI, they're underperforming by about 6% (winning percentage) which suggests that even though their schedule has been easy, they've got "more in the tank", so to speak.  The average defense that they're playing is helping them quite a bit, and if Arenas DOES come back healthy in the second half, then the improved offense will give them a surge at the end of the season that could help them immensely.  

Something else to mention is that Brendan Haywood has been playing effectively; he's rebounding and defending well, getting minutes, and he's been better on offense than ever in his entire career.  He's still "only" a 10 ppg guy, but he's doing the 10/8 thing in 27 mpg, shooting over 54% from the floor, and a career-best 73% from the line (career-best by 10%) on 3.6 FTA/g.  So when he's getting the minutes, he's producing, the Wizards are defending and rebounding, and maybe they'll get their leading scoring back in a month or so.  Things look pretty positive for Washington despite Arenas' injury, and the Wizards figure to be in the 3rd to 5th seed range.  

That would give them a reasonable chance to advance to the second round though I don't think they'd match up terribly well against Cleveland.  That said, the one time those two teams played, Washington beat them by 19 points, so we'll see.  

- Cleveland Cavaliers -

Cleveland has been hot lately, rising fast and currently riding a 4-game winning streak, having gone 8-2 over their last 10.  They are still sub-.500 on the road which is distressing, but they're a fairly balanced team.  They have, however, dropped on the defensive end rather remarkably from last year, going from 4th to 14th in defensive efficiency.  Their offensive is tepid as a result of poor roster construction and unimaginative coaching.  The Pythagorean model predicts that their present record of 22-18 should be 17-23, a gap of about 0.13 in winning percentage, which is pretty massive.  They still have a negative point differential which is a problem, but since their surge started only recently, we'll have to wait and see how they develop.  

They're streaking now, and LeBron is an absolutely astonishing talent; moreover, the Cavs don't have a bad supporting cast in general; they just lack a secondary creator besides LeBron and an extra shooter or two.  They also under-utilize Ilgauskas.  The Cavs are a safe bet to make the playoffs at this point, assuming they remain healthy.  They could, like Washington, be anywhere from 3rd to 5th seed, however.

- Toronto Raptors -

Toronto is 12th in both offensive and defensive efficiency and is the best three-point shooting team in the league.  They're a surprisingly slow team, all considered, though really when you factor in that Ford's been down and Calderon's been playing increased minutes, it isn't a huge surprise because he's very methodical and careful.  The Raptors don't get to the line enough as a team (though that's thanks to everyone not named Bosh or Ford), and injuries have slowed them enough that they're lagging behind the pace RPI predicted for them by about two wins (which is pretty good, all told).  They are, however, the team with the HIGHEST rating in Hollinger's Strength of Schedule score, suggesting that their schedule has been particularly demanding and thus making things harder for them.  

They're holding the sixth seed right now and are not considerably better than anyone above them.  It's possible that they could push for the fifth seed if/when Ford returns, but it's a tough call as to whether they're really better than Washington or Cleveland.  They're certainly not likely to slip any spots given the relative quality of Indiana and Atlanta below them, barring further injuries. But, are they really capable of locking down in a playoff series?  Ostensibly, Chris Bosh won't suck in the playoffs against the frontcourts of Orlando, Washington, or Cleveland (one of whom they'd face) but will that be sufficient?  The Raptors can't really stop Dwight Howard and can't stop both Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis so that'll be a tough matchup.  They can't stop LeBron, or keep Cleveland off the glass in general, and Washington possesses some guns and a comparable defensive squad so that would be a tight series.  All things are possible, and Washington would probably be the best matchup, but if Arenas comes back that will change.  

- Atlanta Hawks -

Atlanta is one of the two most utterly unthreatening teams in the EC playoff race; they are much improved over last season and are set to make their first playoffs since the lockout season.  They have a negative point differential and are generally a weak offensive team (20th in offensive efficiency); they have been much improved defensively, but they have a sub-.500 record and are playing .300 ball over their last ten games.  

Their biggest problem is scoring; Josh Smith flatly sucks on offense.  He's an excellent help defender and a good rebounder, but he's not good on offense.  He takes too many long shots; he doesn't have a great handle; he doesn't go to his developing post-up skills often enough... The one thing he does well is draws fouls at over 0.46 FTA/FGA and a DrawF of 18.3%, but he is below league average in TS% and that's just frustrating because he takes more shots than anyone but Joe Johnson and doesn't really produce well for it.  Marvin Williams should be taking more of Josh's shots.  Also, the Hawks are slow for so athletic a team, 25th in the league in pace.  I suppose their point guards are the issue there, but Anthony Johnson has been playing well, and Joe Johnson's a nice passer out of the off-guard spot...

Anyway, they're guaranteed to face Boston or Detroit, which is a losing proposition (again, assuming health) and so are inconsequential in the overall scheme of this season.  Hawks? fans can take some solace in the fact that a playoff berth is a meaningful step forward and that they have a bright future, but now is certainly not the time.

- Indiana Pacers -

Like Atlanta, Indiana is one of the couple of sub-.500 teams that usually get into the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.  They're under .500 over their last ten games, have a negative point differential, aren't above .500 at home, get out-rebounded, give up a really good percentage from downtown to their opponents, foul more often than their opponents.  Indiana's fast; they're 2nd in the league in pace, and they're 11th in defensive efficiency but 17th in offensive efficiency and TS%, 19th in rebound rate (4th in defensive rebound rate but 21st in offensive rebound rate), and 24th in ToR.  

Mike Dunleavy's playing well, but this is a team that really doesn't have an outstanding attribute to exploit, nor go-to guys on which they can consistently rely.  Even a healthy Jermaine O'Neal is mediocre offensively, and he's not even capable of giving them the full range of defense and rebounding he normally provides; he bruised his left knee and won't be back until at least the second of February.  He has mentioned sitting out the season although he has flip-flopped between it being a "prime option" and the "worst-case scenario."  He's missed 90 games over the last 3.5 seasons on account of injury, illness, and suspensions (or about 44% of the available games).  

So Indiana can look forward to a lot more basketball without a significant interior presence, and that's not going to do anything positive for them.  

- New Jersey Nets -

New Jersey is actually OVERachieving if you buy into RPI, given their -5.5 point differential and the fact that they're on a 5-game losing streak does little to dissuade anyone of this.  They score less than everyone in the league but Miami.  To be fair, they're 20th in pace, but they have been awful this season and that doesn't figure to change much. I'd be surprised if they made the playoffs unless there is a dramatic shift in their play.  They are second-last in the league in turnover ratio, 23rd in TS%, 26th in offensive efficiency, and 21st in defensive efficiency.  To their credit, they are 9th in rebound rate (8th in defensive rebound rate and 11th in offensive rebound rate), but the other factors are quite significant.

New Jersey is a weak team offensively; they don't shoot well from anywhere even shooting 4.5% worse than their opponents at the line (though they do get to the line more often).

Part of the problem is that all of their offense comes from Jefferson and Carter. Kidd's shooting under 37% from the field and has never been a scorer (and has, in fact, traditionally been quite poor in that regard).  Nachbar isn't hitting his threes; Antoine Wright is terrible; they have no frontcourt offense; Krstic is out for at least another week and isn't going to be 100% when he does get back.  If he starts playing well then he could help them turn their season around, but the Nets look really, really bad.  

Magloire, their $4M man, has only played 11 mpg over 22 games and can't even shoot 32% from the floor.  He did manage to average nearly 2 fpg in those minutes, though, and a full turnover per game.  Theoretically acquired to improve the Nets' interior D and rebounding, Magloire has been a spectacular failure though not an especially expensive one.  Eddie Gill, the only Net besides Vince Carter shooting 35%+ from downtown, has only played in 13 games.  The injury to Marcus Williams hasn't helped either (the broken foot and the lingering issues therefrom).

So the Nets are beset by a variety of problems, none of which look like they will be significantly changed in the near future, and that makes them look like they're out of the running for a playoff spot even though they're only a few games back right now.  

- Chicago Bulls -

Chicago has been ugly; many people want to lay that on Scott Skiles and his weird rotations and favoritism for hustle over talent.  The Bulls haven't defended particularly well and have been awful offensively... They have a deep pit from which they need to dig themselves even if Boylan can get them going.  Like the Nets, they certainly have a shot to turn their season around; it was not long ago that Cleveland was mired in a pretty bad spot, and they successfully climbed back into the postseason race though they were never as futile in any regard as these two teams.  Most people want to believe that Tyrus Thomas should be getting more minutes and that the young bigs (Gray and Noah) should be getting more burn as well.  Have they been?  Skiles was fired on Christmas Day.  In the 13 games since, Thomas has averaged 10.38 mpg, and it hasn't been because of foul trouble.  In the 22 games before that, he averaged 18.64 mpg. He had 5 games under 10 minutes played under Skiles; his first 4 under Boylan were under 7 minutes, and he had three others at 7 or fewer minutes played for a total of 7 games in 13 where he played fewer than 10 minutes compared to 5 in 22 under Skiles. He's actually playing LESS under Boylan than under Skiles, and the news has been alive with the various issues surrounding Noah.  

So I don't think that the coaching change is going to do too much to radically alter Chicago's season, at least not this year.  

- Conclusions -

The EC playoff picture looks pretty set right now, but we're only at the halfway mark of the season.  There is a great deal that could still change even leaving injuries aside.  The East looks predictably weak and uncompetitive with two very clear candidates for the ECF and a host of other teams that don't seem very likely to put up much of a fight.  At least, however, some of the teams that appear to be likely to make the playoffs are new; the unexpected collapse of Chicago and New Jersey's impotent offense have been timed against Boston's rise to create a very interesting time for teams like Indiana and Atlanta.