RealGM Analysis
As the 2010 trade deadline draws nearer, almost every team is being mentioned in rumors with increasing frequency. Most likely, very few of the rumors will come to fruition; of those, even fewer will be of the blockbuster variety. While some years have seen stars like Ray Allen and Rasheed Wallace dealt, to varying levels of impact, others have seen barely more than a swap of second-round picks.
It?s not as though general managers aren?t trying fervently to upgrade their rosters. They often field multiple calls per day and even per hour, posing offer after counteroffer, sometimes laughing an inferior trade proposal off the phone.
All this in mind, whether they?ll happen or not (and most of them won?t), there are numerous scenarios that could help each side. Five of our RealGM writers have submitted proposals that, unlike the ones coming from the mouths of NBA GMs, have both teams in mind.
Matthew Gordon: Smith for Hamilton
Denver currently sits second in the Western Conference with a highly talented team that is still short of the Lakers. Richard Hamilton would work wonders for the Nuggets, as he is a proven scoring threat who could be the team?s first option until Carmelo Anthony fully returns from injury. He?s also an additional ball-handler and passer (5.2 assists per game), which allows the Nuggets to utilize Chauncey Billups?s off-ball shooting skills more effectively. Hamilton knows Billups extremely well from their time together in Detroit, so the possibility of him disrupting team chemistry is nearly zero.
Hamilton would be a blessing for Denver, but the four years and $49 million remaining on his contract don?t make much sense for the struggling Pistons. JR Smith, at a far more digestible $13 million over two years, would give Detroit a surge of youth and athleticism. Although Smith?s skill set would overlap somewhat with Ben Gordon?s, the strengths of each (size for Smith, quickness for Gordon) cover the other?s weakness. Smith won?t do anything to help Detroit?s defense, but there?s virtually no chance of Detroit getting the young defensive center it needs in return for a shooting guard who turns 32 on Sunday.
Considering Smith and Hamilton have widely disparate salaries, there would need to be additional players in the trade. Any combination allowing the trade to be within the legal 125% +$100,000 window would be acceptable; the easiest would be to add little-used reserves Renaldo Balkman ($7 million over the next four years) and Malik Allen from Denver?s side, along with DaJuan Summers from Detroit. Denver would still amass additional salary, but the team is set to remain within the luxury tax until at least 2011 as is. Detroit would relish the immediate savings, which only increase when Allen expires this summer.
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Christopher Reina: Maggette and George for Ilgauskas
The Cavaliers cannot afford to repeat last year?s mistake where they possessed a false sense of confidence with the NBA?s best regular season record. This created a situation where executing a deadline move felt like more indulgence than necessity.
While I realize Danny Ferry and company have identified a floor-stretching big (Antawn Jamison or Troy Murphy) as their primary need in the trade market, Corey Maggette would also undoubtedly improve Cleveland?s title chances and I believe to a degree neither of their primary targets would equal.
The biggest weakness of the Cavaliers is the utter absence of a second big wing who can create his own offense. The Cavaliers fully revealed this vulnerability during their shocking elimination in last year?s playoffs to Orlando where LeBron James was successfully neutralized. The acquisitions of Shaquille O?Neal, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon and Leon Powe addressed clear problems, but left that specific need still dangling attached to their title hopes.
Maggette has his glaring limitations, but he indisputably is an efficient scorer, with a career True Shooting Percentage of 58.1% and a mark of 62.6% this season. He scores more than half of his buckets in the paint and is also a human rain delay in terms of his perpetually high rate of drawing fouls and getting to the line. Opposing coaches will be unable to consistently rotate fresh wing defenders onto LeBron, whether it be the combo of Mickael Pietrus and Matt Barnes for Orlando, or Ron Artest and Kobe Bryant for the Lakers, as they must also respect Maggette's potential to hurt them.
Another requisite of any Cleveland acquisition is to have an accomplished spot-up game. Even though Maggette has largely abandoned his perimeter game with the Warriors, he has a career mark of 32.0% from distance, which is more than adequate and he will hit his open looks from LeBron kick-outs.
This season, Cleveland has a net PER production advantage at every position beyond shooting guard, where Maggette is also valuable defensively. He can defend multiple positions and is actually underrated on that side of the floor when motivated, which he clearly will be in a deep playoff run. He is equipped to guard Kobe on one possession and Lamar Odom on the next.
The motivation from Golden State?s perspective is purely financial. Maggette is owed just under $30.8 million over the upcoming three seasons, which are appearing to be lottery-bound campaigns for the Warriors. Maggette isn?t part of the long-term picture and for a losing team that will likely be sold within the next 18 months, he is an unnecessary luxury. A wink and a nod part of the deal will be for the Warriors to waive Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who they can buyout for a reduced amount of his remaining 09-10 salary for even additional savings.
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Andrew Perna: Camby for Harpring, Mullens and a first-round pick
This trade, or some semblance of it, is a no-brainer for both the Clippers and Oklahoma City. Marcus Camby?s contract is expiring, making him valuable to a number of teams. In dealing Camby, the Clippers ensure they will get something in return rather than simply watch the veteran sign with a contender this summer. Camby is an ideal mid-level exception candidate, making the possibility of a sign-and-trade remote.
The Thunder aren?t exactly title contenders, but acquiring Camby would allow them to all but ensure their first-ever playoff berth while not jeopardizing future cap freedom. Nenad Krstic is serviceable, but Camby would represent a huge upgrade and give the Thunder one of the more underrated starting fives in the league.
Oklahoma City currently ranks sixth in points allowed per 100 possessions and the addition of Camby would only bolster their defense for when they face potent teams down the stretch. He?s a better rebounder than Krstic, although his midrange game isn?t as smooth. With a veteran like Camby, I could easily see the Thunder getting past the first round (assuming they avoid the Lakers). They are set to receive a first round pick from Phoenix this year, making their own pick easier to part with.
Los Angeles agrees to this deal for a few different reasons. As I mentioned, dealing Camby before he hits the market ensures the Clippers of a return on their investment. They could probably land more able bodies in return for the veteran, but Matt Harpring?s expiring deal keeps some cap space available while also acquiring a young prospect in B.J. Mullens and another first-round selection.
In my proposed deal the pick is unprotected, giving L.A. two first-rounders this June. The Timberwolves owe the Clippers a first-round pick, but its top-10 protected in both 2010 and 2011. This year?s draft class isn?t extremely deep, but the ability to add two rotation players on the cheap is valuable with the salary cap expected to decline. With player options (Sebastian Telfair) and qualifying offers (Mardy Collins) the Clips would have between $42 million and $48 million tied up in 10 players for the 2010-11 season.
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Daniel Leroux: Bulls/Wolves/Celtics three-way
Bulls trade: Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, Jerome James, John Salmons, Devin Brown
Bulls receive: Brian Cardinal, Ramon Sessions, Damien Wilkins, Wayne Ellington, Ray Allen
Wolves trade: Brian Cardinal, Ramon Session, Damien Wilkins, Wayne Ellington
Wolves receive: Luol Deng, Jerome James, Devin Brown
Celtics trade: Ray Allen
Celtics receive: Kirk Hinrich, John Salmons
For Chicago:
Chicago opens up an absolute ton of cap room (my estimate: $35.9M of space at a cap of $52.5M with Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, Ramon Sessions, Wayne Ellington, and James Johnson on roster) while getting back some useable talent. Ramon Sessions would be a logical back-up for Derrick Rose and is paid a reasonable amount for the long term. Plus, he could also play next to Rose if necessary. Ray Allen is a good mentor for the young guys on this team for the remainder of the season in a role somewhat similar to the one he played for Michael Redd in Milwaukee. Ellington is another guy who could benefit from Allen?s tutelage and should become a valued contributor off the bench. With this trade, Chicago could offer the max to two different players.
For Minnesota:
While there is the possibility Minnesota will go after Rudy Gay in free agency, Luol Deng is a better fit with their current talent and a lower risk since he is already under contract and a more proven, reliable commodity. His mid-range shooting, defense, and mentality would help give an identity to a team that is still looking for one. What makes this trade even more logical for Minnesota is they give up relatively little talent to acquire Deng, especially if/when Ricky Rubio comes over, which would decrease the trade value of Sessions. It gives the Wolves a good core and enough flexibility to make more deals down the road.
For Boston:
Adding Hinrich and Salmons would give Boston the shot in the arm they need to make a real run at a title this season. What?s more, Salmons is signed for only one more season while Hinrich?s salary decreases in each remaining year, so the combined salary burden is somewhat close to what it would be in acquiring Andres Nocioni, except with dramatically more talent. Boston would get more versatile and the added depth on the perimeter would help both in terms of decreasing minutes in blowouts and increasing the chance of winning when injuries hit. Plus, Hinrich has a good history guarding Dwyane Wade, which could prove useful.
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Brian Reynolds: Kaman for Smith
Why the Clippers should make this trade: Josh Smith is a special talent who would be incredibly marketable in the city of Los Angeles. He would fit right in at the power forward position and allow the Clippers do what they should do ? run. With Blake Griffin returning (or should I say, ?beginning his career?) next year, Smith is flexible enough to move to the three. At only 24-years-old, Smith has yet to reach his full potential ? a scary thought.
He is signed at a reasonable price through the 2012-13 season and would bring a sense of excitement to the other Staples Center tenant. With Eric Gordon, Baron Davis, Al Thornton, Griffin and Smith, the Clippers would have a great nucleus that would appeal to future free agents.
Why the Hawks should make this trade: Although it may be far-fetched to believe that Atlanta would even consider dealing their beloved star Josh Smith, Chris Kaman is the type of player who could lead the Hawks into the Conference Finals or possibly even The Finals. Al Horford is not a true center and will be exposed by the likes of Dwight Howard or Cleveland?s twin towers come playoff time. The addition of Kaman would allow Horford to move to his natural position (PF) and give the Hawks an inside presence that they need.
Kaman is the type of player who forces opposing coaches to focus on how to slow him down. Although the Hawks would lose a lot of their athleticism with the departure of Smith, Kaman would help open up the floor for guys like Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford. He would also provide a lot of scoring himself ? all while being a nuisance on the defensive end. If the Hawks are really serious about the time being now, Kaman is the guy they should go get.