Before I talk about Day 1 of the NCAA tournament, I have one preview item for Day 2. As a detailed reader of Monday’s column may have noted, Purdue is the most improved offensive team in the country in the last 10 games. The reason most people haven’t noticed is because Purdue’s defense went in the tank over the same time period. But in the next table I focus on the individual offensive numbers to see whose offense has changed the most:

One popular theory is that the removal of Kelsey Barlow has improved the offense. Barlow was kicked off the team and his minutes have now dropped to zero. But Barlow was not a black-hole offensively, and it isn’t clear that his removal should make that much of a difference.

Instead it looks like there are two contributing factors. First, Purdue has tightened a 9 player rotation down to 7 players. All are receiving substantially more playing time than early in the year. I would argue that Anthony Johnson should actually be receiving less time and that perhaps it should be a 6 player rotation. But obviously Matt Painter sees something in the defense and effort of the freshman Johnson. Overall this core group of 7 is building more chemistry.

Second, five of these players have seen their efficiency improve from the start of the year. That’s fairly impressive when you consider that the Big Ten schedule should be tougher than the non-conference schedule. Hummel is getting to the line a little more often, and as for the rest of the rotation, they are simply making more shots. Turnovers are also down.

Of course with this shorter rotation, players have been more hesitant to foul, the team is forcing fewer turnovers, and teams seem to be getting easier shots against Purdue. It is hard to play pressure defense with a short rotation, and unless Purdue gets a little more defensive effort against St. Mary’s, they will be done in the first round. Offensive improvement is great, but not if you cannot get stops.

Game Notes

Even on a day that lacks historic drama, there are always plenty of storylines in the NCAA tournament.

-There are the stories about player homecomings. Louisville’s Peyton Siva is from the Seattle area and the chance to play in Portland meant many of his family could drive to Thursday’s game. And while his playing time was limited due to foul trouble, Siva made the most of his time on the court scoring 17 points in 25 minutes. For much of the game, Davidson simply could not keep Siva out of the lane.

-There are the stories of high school teammates re-united. Southern Miss guard Neil Watson and Kansas St. guard Will Spradling played AAU ball together and had been friends since 8^th grade. They often guarded each other during Thursday’s game and while Watson got the upper hand with 16 points and 3 assists, Spradling’s Kansas St. team won the game.

-There are the stories of heartbreak. Long Beach St. senior Larry Anderson tried to return from a knee injury, but he was ineffective in limited minutes, and LBSU came up a few points short of upsetting New Mexico.

-There are the stories of redemption. Iowa St. has a team of players that didn’t fit in well elsewhere. Chris Allen was a problem at Michigan St., Royce White had off-the-court troubles at Minnesota, and even Scott Christopherson (the home-grown Cyclone on this team) once played for Marquette. All three were spectacular in the Cyclones win over defending champion UConn. Allen had 20 points, White had a double-double with 15 points and 13 boards, and Christopherson chipped in 15 points too. And when this group of cast-offs built a 36-14 first half lead on the defending champs, they were playing beautiful basketball.

-There are even the moments of glory for losing teams. Colorado St. may have lost to Murray St. to open the day, but millions of people across the country saw the 6’4” Pierce Hornung diving on the floor and grabbing 10 first half rebounds as the Rams led at halftime. South Dakota St., making the first NCAA tournament appearance in school history, gave Baylor an early scare with a 19-7 lead. And even UNLV gave its fans one last moment to cheer by trimming a 20 point deficit to 2 points in the final minutes against Colorado. Those teams may not have won, but at least there were a few highlights.

There were just two seeding upsets on Thursday (with VCU and Colorado winning). VCU’s upset was the most dramatic. VCU’s Bradford Burgess hit a three pointer late, VCU’s Darius Theus hit a runner in the lane, and then Wichita St.’s Garrett Stutz missed a game tying three at the buzzer. But it hardly felt surprising after VCU’s tournament run last year.

That meant the only real drama of the day came when top seeded Syracuse struggled to defeat UNC-Asheville. The game featured at least three controversial calls, the missed goaltend against Syracuse, the bizarre lane violation (that later proved to be the correct call), and the inbounds pass that bounced off a Syracuse player but was ruled Syracuse ball. Charles Barkley called the officiating a “travesty”, and for those hoping to see a 16-seed beat a 1-seed for the first time in NCAA history, it certainly felt that way. For most of the game, every time Syracuse went on a run, it seemed like UNC-Asheville had an answer. Near the 15 minute mark of the second half, Syracuse turned a pair of steals into the lead, only to see the Bulldogs take the lead back. Near the 9 minute mark, James Southerland hit a three pointer and Rakeem Christmas got a foul and one, but again UNC-Asheville answered. And it felt like the only reason UNC-Asheville could not answer at the end was because of those controversial calls.

Perhaps there was a little drama when Harvard pulled within 5 points against Vanderbilt. After losing in the first round in recent years, Commodore fans had at least one moment of panic. But the truth is, the real beauty of a day like Thursday isn’t the basketball games, it is the future match-ups. Because most of the top seeds advanced, that means we have an outstanding slate of games on Saturday.

Random Thoughts

-Bad Pun of the Day: Regarding the aforementioned Neil Watson, Len Elmore said “It’s elementary, Watson is getting it done.”

-West Virginia’s loss was tough, but not entirely unexpected. This team just relied too much on Truck Bryant and Kevin Jones, and when Bryant struggled this year, as he did on Thursday, WVU simply had no chance to win.

-For Indiana, more than Cody Zeller and Jordan Hulls’ points, I was extremely impressed with their active hands. They combined for nine steals and the two that Hulls got before half-time seemed critical to me. Those steals prevented New Mexico St. from entering the locker room with real momentum.

Expected Wins in the Field of 64

It is time to introduce a table that I will be showing on a nearly daily basis during the tournament. The table shows the expected wins for various teams (based on the Pomeroy rankings) and why these have changed each day. Expectations primarily change because a team wins or loses. See “Own”. But expectations can also change because a team’s potential future opponents change. See “Other”. Finally, expectations can change because of margin within the tournament. See “Marg”. Here are some examples. VCU beat Wichita St. which substantially improved their “Own” expected number of wins. But Indiana also advanced (instead of New Mexico St.) and that “Other” game hurt VCU’s expected wins. Meanwhile Syracuse struggled to beat UNC-Asheville while Wisconsin crushed Montana so the Badgers see their “Marg” improve.

-If you study this table (and the next table) carefully, the first thing you might notice is that Pomeroy’s expected champ at the start of Monday was Kentucky, but at the start of Thursday, it was Ohio St. Because the SEC struggled in the NIT and the Big Ten did well in the NIT, Ohio St. actually passed Kentucky for first place in Pomeroy’s rankings during the week.

-The second thing you should note is that VCU picked up the most impressive victory. Beating Wichita St. not only gave them a win, it also gave them some option value for future wins in the tournament. In the table below, Kentucky’s win was mostly expected. After beating Western Kentucky, Kentucky’s expected number of wins in the tournament barely changed.

-In the “Other” column, Indiana got the biggest benefit from Wichita St. going down, but Kentucky also got a slight benefit as well.

-The Big Ten (Ohio St., Indiana, Wisconsin) all won by impressive margins and that makes Michigan St. look better without even playing.  See “Marg”.

-Wichita St. and UNLV lost and gave away plenty of value to the rest of the field. See “Own.”

-Syracuse saw both Wisconsin and Vanderbilt advance meaning the Orange are guaranteed to face a strong team in the Sweet Sixteen. See “Other.”

-Syracuse had a disappointing margin of victory against UNC-Asheville, but Kentucky had a disappointing margin against Western Kentucky too. See “Marg.”