At the end of January, I looked at several key injury splits. Today, I decided to update that list based on what has happened in the last month. 

Adj Off is each team’s adjusted points per possession offense. Adj Def is each team’s adjusted points per possession defense. Both stats replicate Pomeroy’s formula and adjust for opponent and venue. Finally, AEM is the adjusted efficiency margin, or adjusted offense minus adjusted defense.

Be careful in interpreting these splits because many are based on small samples. But since many of these splits match up with the box score data, they seem to plausibly measure the value of the missing players. Only one split listed below (Casey Mitchell), does not match up very well with what the box score data would predict.

10 Injury Splits You Need to Know

1) Korie Lucious did not have a great season offensively, so when Lucious left Michigan St. I was skeptical that his departure would have much of an impact on the team. And Ken Pomeroy was even more skeptical. But now that we have a larger sample of games, I think it is fair to ask how Michigan St. has played without its junior guard. Interestingly, in the games without Lucious, Michigan St.’s offense has held steady, while the defense has fallen off significantly:

Michigan St. (with Korie Lucious) 11-7
Adj Off = 109.8
Adj Def = 89.9
AEM = 19.9

Michigan St. (without Korie Lucious) 5-6
Adj Off = 107.8
Adj Def = 95.7
AEM = 12.1

Are Mike Kebler and Keith Appling worse than Lucious at stopping dribble penetration? Both Kebler and Appling foul more often per 40 minutes than Lucious, and neither player can match Lucious’ steal rate.

On the other hand, both players are taller and get more rebounds and blocks. And certainly some of this drop-off is probably related to other factors besides the departure of Lucious. But I am willing to believe that the team misses Lucious’ lock down defense to some degree. And no matter what the explanation, after playing like the 29^th best team in the first part of the season, Michigan St. has been playing like the 68^th best team in the eleven games since Lucious left.

2) Pitt may have gone undefeated with Ashton Gibbs out of the lineup, but that does not mean they did not miss the team’s best three-point shooter. Pittsburgh’s offense was clearly worse without Gibbs in the lineup:

Pittsburgh (without Ashton Gibbs) 3-0
Adj Off = 115.9
Adj Def = 88.7
AEM = 27.2

Pittsburgh (with Gibbs) 24-4
Adj Off = 121.4
Adj Def = 90.2
AEM = 31.2

I think based on Pittsburgh’s late season struggles, it is tempting to eliminate Pitt as a Final Four favorite. But recognize that the games without Gibbs hurt Pittsburgh’s efficiency margin. In games with Gibbs, Pittsburgh looks more like the 4^th best team in the nation.

3) But Pittsburgh’s struggles without Gibbs are nothing compared to Villanova’s struggles without Corey Stokes. Stokes missed four games late in the year, and Villanova was not the same team without him:

Villanova (without Corey Stokes) 2-2
Adj Off = 116.7
Adj Def = 92.7
AEM = 24.0

Villanova (with Stokes) 19-8
Adj Off = 105.0
Adj Def = 91.1
AEM = 13.9

Without Stokes in the lineup, Villanova played like the 61^st best team in the nation. With Stokes, they have played like the 14^th best team in the nation. Given that Stokes is the most efficient scorer on Villanova, and by far the team’s best three point shooter, I am willing to believe that this drop in offense is real. But will Stokes be ready for the NCAA tournament? He is currently questionable for the Big East tournament opener.

4) In the January splits I looked at the injury to Seton Hall’s Jeremy Hazell. And while it is tempting to claim that Hazell was back to 100% after his performance in the Syracuse game, that is not quite true. Jeremy Hazell had a number of bad offensive games, including multiple games with zero three pointers even after the Syracuse win. Instead, I am going to split the Seton Hall season another way. With six games left in the season Keon Lawrence was kicked off the Seton Hall team. Lawrence had and 82.9 ORtg this season and was simply a disaster offensively this year. And while part of this is Hazell’s health, and part of this is Lawrence’s absence, in the last six games Seton Hall is clearly playing at a higher level:

Seton Hall (early season) 10-14
Adj Off = 101.6
Adj Def = 89.1
AEM = 12.5

Seton Hall (last six games) 3-3
Adj Off = 108.4
Adj Def = 89.3
AEM = 19.2

For most of the season, Seton Hall was playing like the 67^th best team in the nation. But in the last six games, they have been playing like the 32^nd best team in the nation. This may seem irrelevant since Seton Hall is not going to the NCAA tournament, but it means a lot to a team like Marquette. Marquette played Seton Hall twice down the stretch, and a late season loss to an improving Seton Hall team should not be a huge black mark on the Golden Eagles.

5) Mississippi St. earned a “bye” into the SEC quarterfinals and at some point in the next week you are going to hear someone argue that Mississippi St. should not be penalized for the games they lost when Dee Bost, Renardo Sidney, and Ravern Johnson were out. Well, Mississippi St. was at full strength in 14 games this season. And in those games, they were not dominant:

Mississippi St. (missing at least one of the three stars) 10-6
Adj Off = 100.2
Adj Def = 101.6
AEM = -1.4

Mississippi St. (full strength) 7-7
Adj Off = 109.7
Adj Def = 100.8
AEM = 8.9

Mississippi St. is better with those three players in the lineup. But with all three on the floor, they still only look like the 83^rd best team in the nation.

6) Everyone knows this, but since Larry Drew left the starting lineup North Carolina has been playing at a much higher level. In fact, since he left the team, North Carolina looks like the 8^th best team in the nation:

North Carolina (with Larry Drew) 16-5
Adj Off = 110.2
Adj Def = 86.5
AEM = 23.7

North Carolina (since Drew left the team) 8-1
Adj Off = 115.2
Adj Def = 87.8
AEM = 27.4

7) I think the common perception is that Florida St. will struggle to win games in the NCAA tournament without Chris Singleton. And while I believe that to be true, so far the efficiency stats do not back that up. Florida St. has been playing a smaller lineup, which has led to slightly better offense, but worse defense for the Seminoles.

Florida St. (with Chris Singleton) 18-7
Adj Off = 101.8
Adj Def = 85.7
AEM = 16.2

Florida St. (without Singleton) 3-2
Adj Off = 106.4
Adj Def = 90.5
AEM = 15.9

8) Remember when Minnesota was in the top 25? A 1-9 finish to the season ended their NCAA hopes. Conventional wisdom says the transfer of Devoe Joseph cost Minnesota an NCAA tournament bid. But these numbers are more skeptical. In games without Al Nolen, Minnesota did not play substantially better when Joseph filled in at point guard:

Minnesota (with Al Nolen) 11-3
Adj Off = 115.1
Adj Def = 93.5
AEM = 21.6

Minnesota (without Al Nolen, but with Devoe Joseph) 4-1
Adj Off = 104.4
Adj Def = 98.8
AEM = 5.6

Minnesota (without Al Nolen and Devoe Joseph) 2-9
Adj Off = 107.0
Adj Def = 94.8
AEM = 12.1

By playing a taller lineup, Minnesota actually played impenetrable interior defense down the stretch. On the season Minnesota’s defense had only one weakness: three point shots. Normally, that might be a recipe for success, but not in the trigger happy Big Ten this year.

But if it does not show up in the efficiency stats, where the lack of quality guard play hurt Minnesota was in crunch time. Minnesota’s season is full of games like this one, where they had a great chance to win with five minutes left, only to fail to execute in the final minutes.

9) In the January splits I established that Kansas was not worse off without Josh Selby. And nothing since that time has changed that impression.  Selby has been used sparingly, and he has not been dominant in his limited minutes. Today, I want to look at whether Kansas has played worse without forward Thomas Robinson.

Kansas (without Thomas Robinson) 4-1
Adj Off = 120.6
Adj Def = 89.5
AEM = 31.2

Kansas (with Robinson) 25-1
Adj Off = 120.5
Adj Def = 86.2
AEM = 34.4

The defense has been a little worse without Robinson in the lineup, but again the offense has not missed a beat. How can it be that a player like Josh Selby or Thomas Robinson makes so little difference for Kansas, while a player like Al Nolen makes such a big difference for Minnesota? After all, Al Nolen would never even get a scholarship offer to play at Kansas? The key is whether or not a team has depth. Kansas has so many good players, that they can afford to lose one from the lineup without much drop-off. The same cannot be said for Minnesota.

And this is why I think long debates about the value of injured players will never really be settled. The question is not just how good a player is, the question is whether the team has a viable backup. And for college teams, the quality of those backups if often impossible to measure until we see them take the floor.

10) I do not think they will make the NCAA tournament field, but I think USC is playing like an NCAA team since Jio Fontan joined the team mid-season:

USC (without Jio Fontan) 6-4
Adj Off = 105.4
Adj Def = 93.3
AEM = 12.1

USC (with Fontan) 12-9
Adj Off = 108.8
Adj Def = 91.6
AEM = 17.2

Fontan’s efficiency numbers are not sparkling, but he has given the Trojans a true point guard. And relative to Bryce Jones who he replaced in the lineup, Fontan is more efficient offensively. Before Fontan joined the team, USC was playing like the 68^th best team in the nation. But in the last 21 games, they have played like 39^th best team in the nation. Luckily, the official Pomeroy rankings have basically caught up to this fact. Because USC has played so well in the last six games, the official Pomeroy rankings actually have USC at 42^nd nationally.

Two Non-Injury Splits

Michigan (early season) 10-9
Adj Off = 107.4
Adj Def = 94.5
AEM = 13.0

Michigan (last 11 games) 8-3
Adj Off = 114.7
Adj Def = 92.4
AEM = 22.4

There was no key lineup change, but something has happened to the Wolverines in the last eleven games. The young team has matured and is playing substantially better basketball. Offensively, you cannot overlook the emergence of Tim Hardaway Jr. as an offensive threat. After averaging only eight points per game to open the Big Ten Schedule, Hardaway has averaged 18 points per game in the last dozen games.

Kentucky (Home Games) 15-0
Adj Off = 121.4
Adj Def = 89.3
AEM = 32.0

Kentucky (Neutral Games) 4-1
Adj Off = 114.5
Adj Def = 86.0
AEM = 28.5

Kentucky (Road Games) 3-7
Adj Off = 116.5
Adj Def = 95.2
AEM = 21.2

These Kentucky numbers include the normal adjustment for venue. The fact that Kentucky still looks worse on the road reflects the fact that their road performance is worse than the average team’s road performance.

Based on the home data, we would say Kentucky looks like the 3^rd best team in the nation. But based on the road data, we would say Kentucky looks like the 22^nd best team in the nation.

I agree with Ken Pomeroy when he says that we should not take Kentucky’s poor road performance as a reason to downgrade the Wildcats. I said the same thing last month.

But I also disagree with his argument slightly. Margin-of-victory is not the only factor that should be used in NCAA seeding and selection. I believe other pieces of information can be useful. For example, recent play obviously matters in picking the best teams.

I personally believe that road performance provides some additional information about a team. I believe that a young Kentucky team that struggles away from home will struggle in the NCAA tournament. But finding a historical comparison is almost impossible. Very few teams are this good and have this poor a road record.

Ken suggests looking at other teams that entered the NCAA tournament with poor road records and see how they did in terms of PASE (performance against seed expectations.) And Pete Tiernan has been doing that for years. I am sure at some point he has looked at road record, and when he listed the top 25 predictors of exceeding PASE, road record was not on the list. So I am willing to believe that road record is not a huge predictor of NCAA success.

But I think Kentucky’s road / home splits maybe be indicative of something Ken Pomeroy used to track: Consistency. Consistency no longer appears in his formal ratings, but as he once said “Highly rated teams that are inconsistent tend to look beatable more often.” And I think Kentucky looks beatable more often, which makes them a bad pick for a deep NCAA tournament run. In a one-game setting, Kentucky probably has as good a chance as anyone to beat a team like Ohio St. But in a one-game setting, Kentucky could also be upset in the NCAA tournament opener.

Note: I have no splits for Georgetown’s Chris Wright and BYU’s Brandon Davies. Both teams have played just two games since losing these players and that did not seem like enough data to build a split. But neither team has looked good since losing these players.

11 More Injury Bullets

• Northwestern has not really missed Jershon Cobb this year. He is the least efficient player in the lineup, so I am not surprised the Northwestern offense is a little better without him.

• If Maurice Creek does not get injured, Indiana might be the 9^th best team in the Big Ten.

• West Virginia’s Casey Mitchell has the only truly puzzling split. Seton Hall had a horrible offensive performance against West Virginia when Casey Mitchell was out which probably explains the results.

• South Carolina lost to Auburn when Lakeem Jackson was out. Clearly they are a better team with him available.

• LSU has been a much worse team when Ralston Turner and Storm Warren have missed games. But both were healthy in the home loss to Auburn in the season finale, so their injuries are not the only reason LSU has lost games this year.

• Virginia has buckled down defensively in response to various injuries, but when Will Scott and Will Sherrill have both been out of the lineup, the offense has been non-existent. Luckily, Sherrill came back at the end of the season.

• Georgia Tech misses Brian Oliver.

• Oklahoma St. misses Darrell Williams on-the-court. (Williams was dismissed from the team based on rape charges.)

• How could Iowa St. have such good power numbers early in the year and then fail to win many Big 12 games? Well in the middle of the season they were missing Jamie Vanderbeken and Calvin Godfrey. Clearly, they are a better team with those players healthy as they showed in a pair of late season victories.

• Temple has been without Michael Eric and Scootie Randall over the last five games, and while they look bad in that stretch, a lot of that was the blowout loss to Duke.

• Finally, UAB’s ranking is dragged down slightly by the three games forward Cameron Moore missed.