I recently read where someone picked Mississippi St. as a sleeper pick for the 2012 NCAA Tournament. Of course, it should be impossible to criticize a sleeper pick. By definition, it has to be a team that is non-obvious. But this still seemed a little too optimistic to me. While the Bulldogs went 9-7 in the SEC last season, the SEC West was so weak that a winning record was practically meaningless. Mississippi St.’s Pomeroy ranking, 116th in the nation last season, was also not indicative of much. It reflected the fact that Dee Bost and Renardo Sidney were suspended for the early part of the season. But even after Bost and Sidney returned, the splits showed Mississippi St. was closer to the 70th best team in the country, and not an NCAA caliber team.

If my outlook for the team was not adequately pessimistic, this week Renardo Sidney reminded me why I soured on the team. Sidney decided not to join his teammates on an overseas tour. He is apparently staying home to work on his own game with a trainer. It is hard to believe in any team when the star player chooses to focus on himself instead of his teammates.

But Sidney is not the only key player on the Bulldogs this season. The Bulldogs have also been highlighting the opportunity to play UTEP transfer Arnett Moultrie alongside Sidney in the paint. Moultrie was part of a UTEP team that made the NCAA tournament and went 15-1 in CUSA. Moultrie is expected to bring a “winning attitude” to the team, whatever that means. But if this sounds like one of the better frontcourts in the SEC, the efficiency numbers do not exactly agree:

  • Renardo Sidney 98.9 ORtg in 2011
  • Arnett Moultrie 95.6 ORtg in 2010 at UTEP

Of course Sidney took fully 30% of the teams shots last year when on the floor, so perhaps his ORtg will improve if he is more selective. But nothing about these numbers screams dominance.

Just when I was ready to write Mississippi St. off, I was surprised to realize that Dee Bost was still on the roster. For some reason, I assumed that after his eligibility was re-instated last year, that he was a three month rental. But apparently Bost learned his lesson about trying to go pro, and will give Mississippi St. one more season. Bost and his high assist rate should help an offense that had significant holes last year. And having Bost on the floor from the beginning of the season will almost certainly help the team build better chemistry.

Still, if I am going to pick a sleeper NCAA team from the SEC West, it would have to be Arkansas and not Mississippi St. With Mike Anderson returning and bringing back “40 minutes of Hell”, it is almost impossible not to have a certain amount of irrational excitement for the Razorbacks this season. And Anderson was able to retain all three RSCI top 100 recruits in Arkansas’ deep recruiting class despite the coaching change. He will have some talent to work with.

Of course, if I was just counting recruits, Mississippi St. also has three RSCI top 100 additions this year. So there has to be more than numbers in the argument. And when I really crunch the numbers, Mike Anderson inherits a group with its own offensive problems. Julysses Nobles, Mardracus Wade, Michael Sanchez, Marvell Waithe, and Rickey Scott all turned the ball over on over 20% of their possessions last year, and it is fair to ask whether this motley crew of returning players will actually be able to handle Anderson’s up-tempo system. Only Marshawn Powell has an ORtg over 100 among returning players. Plus Arkansas had its own controversy this off-season, as the team’s two most efficient players, Rotnei Clarke and Glenn Bryant elected to transfer. (Jeff Peterson also transferred, but his efficiency numbers were terrible last season.)

So when I actually study the rosters, picking Arkansas as a sleeper seems hard to justify. But somehow I have confidence in the Mike Anderson system. I remember how Anderson transformed Missouri in his first season. Missouri was ranked 160th in the Pomeroy rankings under Quinn Snyder and jumped to 56th in Anderson’s first year. Replicating that may take a minor miracle, but if he comes close, Arkansas could be in the NCAA tournament mix.