Today, I explore how conference realignment and this summer’s coaching changes may impact the pace-of-play in the major conferences.

When it comes to pace-of-play, a team’s head coach is critical. Thus I list each coach’s mean pace in the below tables over the last 11 years. This summer Ken Pomeroy also developed two new metrics measuring Average Possession Length (APL) on offense and defense. These metrics allow us to understand what causes a team to have a faster or a slower tempo. For example if a team has a slower than expected tempo, we can see whether this is because the team shoots later in the shot clock (like Wisconsin) or because the team presents a frustrating defense to score against (like Syracuse). In the following tables I present the mean APL values for each coach for the four seasons for which Ken Pomeroy has calculated these new metrics.

Big Ten

Current Team

Mean Pace

Mean APL Off

Mean APL Def

Fran McCaffery

Iowa

69.3

16.5

18.8

Richard Pitino

Minnesota

68.9

16.4

17.9

John Groce

Illinois

67.3

17.1

18.4

Tom Crean

Indiana

67.2

17.1

18.6

Matt Painter

Purdue

67.1

17.8

18.6

Pat Chambers

Penn St.

66.3

18.0

18.7

Tim Miles

Nebraska

66.2

18.8

18.0

Thad Matta

Ohio St.

66.1

17.2

19.5

Tom Izzo

Michigan St.

65.4

17.4

19.3

John Beilein

Michigan

64.0

19.2

19.2

Bo Ryan

Wisconsin

61.9

22.0

18.3

Chris Collins

Northwestern

 

 

 

 

Average

66.3

 

 

In the Big Ten, there is once again optimism that the pace is getting faster. Tubby Smith’s career pace was only 66.3, and it was much lower in recent seasons. Richard Pitino should play faster than that based on what he did at Florida International and what he has announced publicly. There is some concern whether the younger Pitino will accomplish that goal by allowing too many easy baskets (see the low Average Possession Length on Defense), but for the rest of the teams in the Big Ten, a few easy baskets would be a blessing.

Meanwhile, Chris Collins will almost certainly use a faster tempo than Bill Carmody at Northwestern. Carmody’s career pace was tied with Bo Ryan for slowest in the league, and after having spent a career on the sidelines at Duke, Collins will almost certainly prefer a more up-tempo attack. He may not quite want to run as much at first given Northwestern’s weaknesses in personnel, but in the long-run, only Bo Ryan and John Beilein stand out as truly grinding coaches.

ACC

Current Team

Mean Pace

Mean APL Off

Mean APL Def

Roy Williams

North Carolina

72.6

15.1

18.0

Mike Krzyzewski

Duke

69.0

17.4

17.6

Jim Boeheim

Syracuse

68.7

15.9

19.8

Leonard Hamilton

Florida St.

67.3

16.7

18.6

Mark Gottfried

NC State

66.8

16.7

18.6

James Johnson

Virginia Tech

66.6

17.3

17.9

Mike Brey

Notre Dame

66.1

19.7

18.2

Steve Donahue

Boston College

65.7

18.8

18.3

Mark Turgeon

Maryland

65.5

18.1

18.2

Brian Gregory

Georgia Tech

64.9

17.5

18.9

Jim Larranaga

Miami FL

64.8

18.8

18.0

Jeff Bzdelik

Wake Forest

64.4

17.3

17.5

Jamie Dixon

Pittsburgh

63.7

19.3

19.1

Brad Brownell

Clemson

63.6

18.4

19.3

Tony Bennett

Virginia

60.6

19.8

18.7

 

Average

66.0

 

 

The ACC doesn’t add any new coaches, but that may not be a blessing for ACC fans. Many of the recent additions like Brad Brownell and Brian Gregory continue to be among the slower-paced coaches in the conference. And without any fast-paced coaches joining the league to contradict that, there will remain plenty of ugly ACC games in the future.

The three teams that were added via realignment this year barely change expectations. Syracuse, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh run the gambit from fast to slow, and together the three have almost no impact on the league average.

There were quite a few games in the 50’s in the ACC last year, and that trend will continue this season. Certainly the matchups between Duke, North Carolina and Syracuse will continue to be some of the faster, more entertaining games in the nation. But for a league that once prided itself on playing faster-paced games from top to bottom, the ACC continues to look more and more like the Big Ten.

Pac-12

Current Team

Mean Pace

Mean APL Off

Mean APL Def

Lorenzo Romar

Washington

71.6

15.9

18.1

Andy Enfield

USC

68.3

16.4

18.5

Tad Boyle

Colorado

67.5

17.3

18.4

Johnny Dawkins

Stanford

67.5

17.7

17.8

M. Montgomery

California

67.3

17.2

18.4

Steve Alford

UCLA

67.2

17.7

18.4

Dana Altman

Oregon

66.7

17.3

18.0

Ken Bone

Wash. St.

66.7

18.2

18.4

Sean Miller

Arizona

66.4

17.6

18.2

Craig Robinson

Oregon St.

65.3

17.7

17.4

L. Krystkowiak

Utah

65.2

20.3

17.6

Herb Sendek

Arizona St.

63.5

18.4

18.8

 

Average

66.9

 

 

The Pac-12 became the fastest-paced power conference in the country last year, and I would expect that trend to continue. After all, Herb Sendek has miraculously determined that as long as he has Jahii Carson on the team, he can live with more than 65 possessions per game. Even Dana Altman has sped up in the Pac-12 relative to his career average. Altman’s average pace in four years at Oregon is now 67.8.

Andy Enfield should clearly bring a faster pace to USC. Compared to Kevin O’Neill and his 63.3 possessions per game, Enfield will clearly bring a more up-tempo style. But even relative to interim head coach Bob Cantu and his 67.5 possessions per game, Enfield should be faster. Enfield averaged 68.3 possessions per game at Florida Gulf Coast.

The biggest concern is how fast Steve Alford will play at UCLA. While his career pace (67.2) is faster than that of Ben Howland (66.2), it isn’t faster than what Howland unleashed last season when Howland’s team was unexpectedly running-and-gunning at 69.5 possessions per game.

Big 12

Current Team

Mean Pace

Mean APL Off

Mean APL Def

Travis Ford

Oklahoma St.

69.2

17.5

18.2

Fred Hoiberg

Iowa St.

69.0

16.2

18.2

Bill Self

Kansas

68.7

16.3

18.5

Rick Barnes

Texas

67.4

17.3

17.6

Lon Kruger

Oklahoma

67.1

17.2

18.4

Scott Drew

Baylor

66.9

17.4

18.2

Trent Johnson

TCU

66.4

19.2

17.8

Tubby Smith

Texas Tech

66.3

18.5

18.6

Bob Huggins

West Virginia

65.8

19.4

17.6

Bruce Weber

Kansas St.

65.0

18.5

18.2

 

Average

67.2

 

 

New Texas Tech head coach Tubby Smith (66.3) checks in with a slower pace than interim head coach Chris Walker (67.6). But the real question is whether last year was an anomaly or a trend for some coaches. Trent Johnson, Bruce Weber and Bob Huggins all played with substantially slower paces than their historical averages last year. If they move back up to their norm, the Big 12 can challenge the Pac-12 for the fastest league in the nation.

SEC

Current Team

Mean Pace

Mean APL Off

Mean APL Def

Mike Anderson

Arkansas

71.8

15.5

18.1

Johnny Jones

LSU

70.2

17.4

17.4

Tony Barbee

Auburn

69.3

17.6

18.2

Andy Kennedy

Mississippi

68.8

16.8

18.1

Frank Martin

S. Carolina

68.6

18.2

16.8

John Calipari

Kentucky

68.3

17.4

18.1

Rick Ray

Mississippi St.

68.2

18.4

17.5

Kevin Stallings

Vanderbilt

66.8

17.3

19.0

Billy Donovan

Florida

66.0

18.0

19.0

Mark Fox

Georgia

65.8

19.3

18.2

Frank Haith

Missouri

65.7

17.6

18.2

Anthony Grant

Alabama

64.7

19.3

18.1

Billy Kennedy

Texas A&M

64.7

19.0

18.4

Cuonzo Martin

Tennessee

64.4

18.9

18.5

 

Average

67.4

 

 

Amazingly there are no new coaches or teams in the SEC this year. The SEC should also be challenging for the title of the fastest league, but last year a number of teams (including Kentucky) had unusual personnel issues and played much slower than normal.

Finally, here is how the Big East looks after the split, and what to expect in the new-look MWC:

The American

Current Team

Mean Pace

Mean APL Off

Mean APL Def

Josh Pastner

Memphis

68.3

16.7

18.4

James Dickey

Houston

68.2

17.2

18.0

Rick Pitino

Louisville

67.8

16.6

18.9

Fran Dunphy

Temple

66.0

18.6

18.0

Donnie Jones

UCF

66.0

17.9

18.2

Kevin Ollie

Connecticut

65.5

17.8

19.0

Mick Cronin

Cincinnati

65.3

18.7

18.2

Stan Heath

South Florida

64.6

20.3

18.2

Larry Brown

SMU

63.8

18.8

18.5

Eddie Jordan

Rutgers

 

 

 

 

Average

66.2

 

 

Big East

Current Team

 

 

 

Oliver Purnell

DePaul

69.3

17.2

16.8

Steve Lavin

St. John's

69.0

17.6

18.1

Jay Wright

Villanova

68.3

17.2

18.0

Buzz Williams

Marquette

66.9

17.6

18.4

Chris Mack

Xavier

66.7

17.7

18.4

Kevin Willard

Seton Hall

66.4

17.7

18.2

Greg McDermott

Creighton

65.5

18.0

18.1

Ed Cooley

Providence

64.8

18.4

17.8

John Thompson

Georgetown

62.0

18.2

19.1

Brandon Miller

Butler

 

 

 

 

Average

66.5

 

 

MWC

Current Team

 

 

 

Dave Rice

UNLV

69.4

15.5

19.1

David Carter

Nevada

67.6

17.5

17.9

Steve Fisher

San Diego St.

66.6

18.0

18.8

Leon Rice

Boise St.

66.5

17.9

18.0

Larry Eustachy

Colorado St.

64.7

19.8

17.4

Dave Pilipovich

Air Force

64.2

17.5

19.7

Stew Morrill

Utah St.

62.6

19.4

18.6

Larry Shyatt

Wyoming

62.6

21.8

17.5

Rodney Terry

Fresno St.

62.3

19.8

18.5

Dave Wojcik

San Jose St.

 

 

 

Craig Neal

New Mexico

 

 

 

 

Average

65.2