To get ready for the upcoming NBA playoffs, I want to take a look at a few key aspects in of certain series by examining important stats and key matchups. First, let’s have a look at the 3 vs. 6 battle in the East, which pits the Toronto Raptors vs. the Brooklyn Nets.

Both of these teams reinvented themselves for different reasons during the regular season. The Raptors became a winning ball club after trading the polarizing Rudy Gay, which had the positive effect of freeing up more opportunities for Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Further, the Raptors finally played the hard-nosed defense that Dwane Casey had been hoping for since arriving to Toronto in 2011.

The Nets turnaround did not involve any sort of transaction. Instead, the Nets started playing their best when Jason Kidd embraced small ball by playing Paul Pierce at the 4. The result was the development of a more free-flowing Nets offense that exploits mismatches and always looks to make the extra pass.

Let’s take a look at both teams’ offensive and defensive ratings since their respective transformations. ***

*** The Raptors traded Rudy Gay on December 9. The Nets started playing better after losing to the Spurs on December 31.

 

ORTG

DRTG

Net RTG

Raptors

107.2

102.5

+4.7

Nets

105.9

103.9

+2.0

The numbers show that the Raptors are a better team, which makes sense given that they are the 3 seed and the Nets are the 6 seed. But what happened when these two teams faced off in the regular season after their respective turnarounds?

 

Wins

ORTG

DRTG

Net RTG

Raptors

2

107.5

102.4

+5.1

Nets

1

102.4

107.5

-5.1

The Raptors saw a slight uptick in their offensive and defensive production relative to their season averages while the Nets clearly struggled on both ends of the floor. We’ll start with the Raptors offense vs. the Nets defense.

Raptors Offense vs. Nets Defense

First, the Nets allowed three more second chance points per 100 possessions to the Raptors then they did to their other opponents. This is not all that surprising given that the Raptors are a top-10 offensive rebounding team and the Nets are a bottom-10 defensive rebounding team.

Perhaps a less predictable and more significant occurrence was that the Nets conceded two more points in the paint per 100 possessions than their average. That was largely because of Kyle Lowry’s excellence in getting into and finishing in the lane. Lowry has been so effective as a scorer this season because of his dual ability to score in the paint and from behind the 3-point line. His offensive versatility gave the Nets fits during the regular season and Coach Kidd has some important decisions to make with regards to how to defend Lowry and the Raptors other perimeter players.

Shaun Livingston is probably the Nets’ best option for guarding Lowry because he has the length and quickness to stay in front of Lowry and contest his jump shots. The problem with putting Livingston on Lowry is that Livingston is also the Nets best option for guarding DeRozan. In fact, according to NBA.com/stats, DeRozan shot 8-9 when Joe Johnson was guarding him and only 2-7 when Livingston was guarding him. Of course, this is a small sample size, but Livingston’s quickness advantage over Johnson makes him more suitable to guarding DeRozan, who likes to slash his way into the lane.

Look for the Nets to utilize Andrei Kirilenko or Alan Anderson on DeRozan so that Livingston can take on the Lowry matchup. This would have the added effect of allowing Deron Williams to hide on one of the Raptors’ less prominent perimeter options like Terrence Ross or Greivis Vasquez.

Nets Offense Vs. Raptors Defense

On the other side of the floor, the Nets’ small-ball style of play did not work as well against the Raptors as it did against many of their other opponents. The Nets play a very deliberate style of offense in which they use a lot of the shot clock to create and exploit whatever mismatches they can find. That often involves posting up Joe Johnson against smaller defenders or utilizing Paul Pierce’s speed against slower opposing big men. These mismatches are intended to either present Johnson or Pierce with a good opportunity to score in isolation or force the defense to provide help. If the defense decides to rotate, the Nets will look to move the ball until it finds an open man on the perimeter for a clean 3-point attempt.

This plan was not particularly effective against the Raptors, however, because the Raptors defenders were able to match up individually without requiring much help. Ross held his own against the stronger Joe Johnson and the Raptor bigs, particularly Amir Johnson, did a nice job of corralling Pierce. The Nets inability to manufacture mismatches caused them to have trouble creating offense. This is evidenced by the their uptick in turnovers and decline in assists relative to their norms.

 

AST %

TO Ratio

AST/TO Ratio

Nets since 1/1/14

58.4%

15.3

1.47

Nets vs. Raptors

50.5%

16.6

1.11

While the Nets’ average AST/TO Ratio isn’t great (ranks 20th in the league since January 1st), the 1.11 AST/TO ratio that they posted against the Raptors would rank as the lowest in the league.

The Nets have to find a way to score consistently by inducing the Raptors defense to rotate and get out of position. Otherwise, the Nets offensive struggles against Toronto could continue into the postseason.