RealGM's own Andrew Perna and Jason M. Williams are reporting live from the WaMu Theather at Madison Square Garden tonight. Be sure to check into their 'Beyond The Arc' running commentary as the night progresses.
April 2007 Basketball Wiretap
Oddsmakers Weigh In With Their Draft Expectations
For the 6th year running, Bodog.com is giving odds on the NBA Draft. With the draft nearly here, we interviewed a Bodog.com bookkeeper in order to find out how they create their odds.
- What resources/sources do you look at to set the draft odds?
We will rank the players based on their college stats. Then, we go team-by-team and list positional needs and which players a team could gain or lose through free agency. Once we have these two lists we play match maker and see which player makes the most sense for each team. Once our mock draft is completed we consider the Mock Drafts of other experts such as Chad Ford, nbadraft.net and of course RealGM. RealGM does great work; we actually use RealGM as a resource throughout the regular season as well.
- Do you give more weight to specific mock drafts?
We have to give the most popular sites a little more weight as we not only have to adjust our odds based on who we think each NBA team will draft, we also have to adjust for who the general public feels their team will pick.
So if Chad Ford has someone in the 5 spot that we don?t agree with, we would lower the odds a little in favor of Chad?s pick because the general public are going to bet that way too.
- How accurate have you been in the past?
Some years are better than others; generally we are better at predicting the NBA draft than the NFL. Now that Rob Babcock is no longer a GM, there are fewer surprises, but we still have the Atlanta Hawks so things aren?t always clear.
- How much action has this year?s draft been seeing? Past drafts?
While it won?t rival the NFL draft, this year?s draft has been by far the biggest NBA draft we?ve seen. I believe this has to do with the fact the draft is so deep; there will be some impact players available as late as the 20th selection in.
Here are Bodog.com's odds as of early Thursday evening:
Who will be the 3rd pick in the 2007 NBA Draft?
Al Horford, 2/7
Mike Conley Jr., 5/2
Brandan Wright, 5/1
Field (Any Other Player), 9/2
Who will be the 4th pick in the 2007 NBA Draft?
Mike Conley Jr., 17/10
Brandan Wright, 5/2
Joakim Noah, 7/2
Al Horford, 7/2
Corey Brewer, 7/1
Field (Any Other Player), 7/2
Who will be the 5th pick in the 2007 NBA Draft?
Corey Brewer, 2/1
Jeff Green, 9/4
Yi Jianlian, 7/2
Brandan Wright, 4/1
Joakim Noah, 5/1
Field (Any Other Player), 3/1
Who will be the 6th pick in the 2007 NBA Draft?
Brandan Wright, 2/1
Mike Conley Jr., 11/4
Jeff Green, 7/2
Joakim Noah, 9/2
Corey Brewer, 6/1
Field (Any Other Player), 5/2
Who will be the 7th pick in the 2007 NBA Draft?
Jeff Green, 5/2
Spencer Hawes, 3/1
Corey Brewer, 7/2
Joakim Noah, 4/1
Yi Jianlian, 6/1
Brandan Wright, 7/1
Field (Any Other Player), 7/2
Who will be the 8th pick in the 2007 NBA Draft?
Joakim Noah, 3/2
Jeff Green, 9/4
Spencer Hawes, 7/1
Yi Jianlian, 7/1
Al Thornton, 8/1
Field (Any Other Player), 5/2
Who will be the 9th pick in the 2007 NBA Draft?
Yi Jianlian, 2/1
Spencer Hawes, 11/4
Julian Wright, 3/1
Joakim Noah, 9/2
Al Thornton, 7/1
Field (Any Other Player), 3/1
Who will be the 10th pick in the 2007 NBA Draft?
Al Thornton, 5/2
Yi Jianlian, 5/2
Spencer Hawes, 3/1
Jeff Green, 4/1
Julian Wright, 11/2
Field (Any Other Player, 3/1
Who will be the 11th pick in the 2007 NBA Draft?
Acie Law, 9/4
Javaris Crittenton, 3/1
Al Thornton, 10/3
Julian Wright, 9/2
Spencer Hawes, 5/1
Field (Any Other Player), 11/4
Who will be the 12th pick in the 2007 NBA Draft?
Al Thornton, 2/1
Jeff Green, 3/1
Yi Jianlian, 4/1
Julian Wright, 6/1
Nick Young, 15/2
Field (Any Other Player), 5/2
Stuckey's Stock Rising
If the Seattle SuperSonics are able to get a second lottery pick in today?s NBA draft, it appears they are targeting Eastern Washington guard Rodney Stuckey.
The Sonics have offered point guard Luke Ridnour to Atlanta for the Hawks? No. 11 pick, and if that deal goes through it would allow the Sonics to begin reshaping a backcourt that was at times dysfunctional and ineffective last season.
Stuckey has strong indications from the Detroit Pistons that they will select him with the 15th pick.
However, the Sonics recently hired Scott Perry, Detroit?s former director of player personnel, as an assistant general manager, and Perry was one of the reasons that the Pistons are so enamored with the combo guard.
Welcome To Draft Night 2007
Welcome to Draft Night 2007.
Will Greg Oden be on his way to Portland, or will Kevin Durant be the number one pick? Will some of the big names involved in trade rumors have new zip codes by the end of the night? Where will Yi Jianlian call home, and will he follow in Yao Ming's footsteps to become the next big Chinese sensation?
These are just some of the questions that will be answered throughout the night, so make sure you join us for RealGM Draft Night 2007. Once again, we are set to keep you up to date on all the selections, the trades, and the rumors as they happen.
RealGM have sent Andrew Perna and Jason M. Williams to the Big Apple where they interviewed the Green Room players yesterday, and will be covering the draft for RealGM live from then WaMu Theater at Madison Square Garden in New York City. If it happens at MSG, you'll hear about it at RealGM Draft Night 2007.
Big Baby Hurts Ankle In Last Predraft Workout
Glen "Big Baby" Davis sprained his left ankle during a workout with the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday, one day before the forward was expected to be picked in the NBA draft.
Davis landed on another player's foot during a routine drill, limped off the court and had the mildly sprained ankle taped.
It was the second time the hefty Davis worked out for the Sixers and the second time he got hurt. He injured his elbow and cut his lip in the first workout in early June.
Report: Blazers Will Draft Oden With First Overall Pick
According to a report on ESPN, the Trail Blazers will draft center Greg Oden with the first overall pick in Thursday's NBA draft.
The Trail Blazers ended the suspense one day before the draft, admitting to the network that they could not pass up on a franchise pivot - a position that has been the centerpiece of countless championship squads.
Portland reportedly will choose Oden over Texas forward Kevin Durant, who was a scoring machine in his only college season. Durant has been projected to be a combination of All-Stars like Kevin Garnett and Tracy McGrady.
If the lanky forward fulfills his potential, he certainly will change the direction of the SuperSonics, who almost certainly will take him with the second pick should Oden be taken first.
But Portland seems to be benefiting the most from this year's draft thanks to Oden, who will join Rookie of the Year Brandon Roy and last season's second overall pick LaMarcus Aldridge.
Durant Has "Uncommon" Talent
Kevin Durant can't bench-press 185 pounds. But he was strong enough to carry the Texas Longhorns on his back for an entire season.
Durant is skinny and looks like he would blow away in a strong wind, and some of the experts wonder how he'll hold up to the pounding and muscle at the professional level. Probably many of the same experts will be wondering next season how to stop him.
Suns Group Watches Yi's Workout In LA
A Suns front office contingent of Steve Kerr, David Griffin and Vinny Del Negro traveled to Los Angeles on Monday to watch 7-foot Chinese power forward Yi Jianlian work out, further fueling the notion that Phoenix is in line to trade into the top 10 of the NBA draft.
The Suns have two workouts slated Tuesday, including a closed, multiple-team workout out for Florida's Corey Brewer, a defensive small forward; Joakim Noah, an active power forward; and versatile Georgetown small forward Jeff Green. All three are pegged as top-10 picks, but Green has refused to work out for Charlotte, which picks eighth.
Phoenix also is holding workouts today with Finnish point guard Petteri Koponen, Oregon point guard Aaron Brooks and Wisconsin small forward Alando Tucker, all of whom are visiting the Suns for a second time and project to be drafted where the Suns have picks, at Nos. 24 and 29. For Phoenix to move up, it might take at least the No. 24 pick and the 2008 Atlanta pick that the Hawks owe Phoenix.
Durant To Grace Cover Of March Madness 08
Kevin Durant will be the cover boy for March Madness 08.
Durant is the second youngest player to be featured on a video game cover.
"There were other players we talked about, but what he did in college and what he has ahead of him, he was pretty clear-cut," Jordan Edelstein, marketing director for EA Sports, said of Durant.
Georgia Tech's Young Declines Green Room Invite
Joe Thomas made headlines in April for skipping the NFL Draft in order to go fishing with his father and despite being invited to be in the Green Room on Thursday, Georgia Tech's Thaddeus Young will be in Tennessee to spend the special evening with his family.
Like many players in the draft, Young has been away from his family for several months.
"I got invited to New York for the draft, but I?m going to hang out with my mom and relax," said Young on Monday. "I had strongly considered taking the invitation. We rented out a conference room in a hotel back at home where we are going to have a lot of food and we are expecting more than 60 family and friends.?
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