The NBA most recently projected a salary cap of $115 million and $139 million luxury tax for the 20-21 season. According to one team's front office, the cap could decline by as much as $25 million to $30 million.
The initial cap projections were based on an expected $8 billion in basketball-related income (BRI), which is now expected to decrease by at least $1 billion and potentially as much as $2 billion.
Using the standard salary-cap formula with $6 billion in BRI would have massive implications throughout the league, with the salary cap and tax line for 2020-21 plummeting to $95 million and $115 million, respectively.
Under that scenario, there would be at least 25 teams in the luxury tax, which would be the most of any season in NBA history.
The Golden State Warriors' projected tax penalty of $45 million would increase to $160 million even before the start of free agency.
One executive told ESPN that the league could solve the luxury tax issue by leaving the line at $139 million and letting the cap fall.