FiveThirtyEight gives the Portland Trail Blazers a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs, compare to 17 percent for the Memphis Grizzlies, six percent for the Phoenix Suns and two percent for the San Antonio Spurs following Sunday's games.
The New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings were eliminated on Sunday.
The Blazers are a half game behind the Grizzlies for the eighth seed with two games to play against the Mavericks on Tuesday and the Nets on Thursday.
Memphis will play the Celtics on Tuesday and the Bucks on Thursday.
The team that finishes in the eighth seed will have to be beaten twice by the ninth seed in the play-in scenario.