Unlike each of the past two seasons, there will not be a great debate over who to pick with the number one overall pick, as Blake Griffin almost certainly will be the first player David Stern calls on June 25th, 2009.  But he isn't quite a Tim Duncan, Shaquille O'Neal, LeBron James kind of lock to become a HOF player.  Griffin is the best power forward to come out of college since Kenyon Martin, but I'm not all the way there in anointing the Sooner as a can't-miss perennial All-Star.

His combination of true elite athleticism and refined skills is incredibly rare, but how he performs initially in the NBA when the gap between his physicality and his opponents is fairly narrow is in doubt.  As a recent reference point, Griffin is not as talented of a pure ballplayer as Michael Beasley was last season.  Griffin is a far better athlete, defensive player and has better intangibles/work ethic to make him a better player than Beasley, but would we get a taller Taylor Griffin if Blake were to blow out his knee?  This is a devil's advocate type of argument, but it really needs to be done when realistically projecting his career.

Clearly, Griffin is on a level of athleticism and length that is rare, but what makes him especially intriguing is how he uses both of those physical attributes.  He outworks and outhustles his opponents, frequently flying down the floor for easy dunks and layups.  Griffin outworks opponents on the glass as well, though he is of course largely (very largely) aided by that length and springiness.

In the halfcourt offense, Griffin does a lot of his work moving without the ball.  He moves like a wing without the ball, very fluid and quick, whether it is coming up to set a screen or reposting.  Griffin also has a keen ability to tell his passer with eye contact or a show hand where he wants the ball.

Once he catches the ball, he will attack the basket with any type of opening.  Griffin is an incredible finisher, dunking with authority and getting his forehead above the rim with regularity.  When he is unable to extend up to the rim, Griffin can score in a lot of different ways under the bucket.  He isn't a preternatural talent in this area, but he has good court awareness and can spin around while knowing where the bucket is and how to get there.  It is subtle, but Griffin does a good job of planning his path to the bucket ahead of receiving the pass.

He sometimes will do the little Hakeem pre-dribble spin moves in the post, but that's not especially refined yet.  Griffin was almost always double-teamed every time he sniffed the ball in the post, which of course neutralizes that ability and he should eventually do this effectively over time.

As a shooter, Griffin is not a real known quality.  He took very few jumpers throughout the season and shot a fairly pedestrian 59% from the line.  On his perimeter shot, Griffin unnecessarily comes down to the waist before going back up.  His mechanics aren't dreadful and can be refined into a fairly efficient shooter, but he doesn't have a ton of confidence in it and will need to work on it a lot.

Griffin won't ever be a point forward, but he can indeed start a break with the dribble and also has a good handle in the halfcourt (sometimes will dribble between his legs) for a big.

Defensively, Griffin has plenty natural abilities to be excellent, but has a lot of room for growth.  He should be able to block more shots than he gets to and a lot of that is based off positioning.  Griffin can play the passing lanes really well, using his long arms and quickness.

Though far from a lock (in the show-up and he's an All-Star sense), Griffin is the best bet in this draft and could actually be the only perennial All-Star.

Click here to read RealGM's draft reports on other members of the '09 class.