Forbes knows a lot. I mean, a real lot. Ask them about the biggest and most profitable companies in the world and they will generate a list for you in seconds flat. They are the place to get financial and business news, similar to what RealGM will be one day for sports (Yeah, I?m optimistic). If you want news on personal finance, entrepreneurship or even technology ? surf over to Forbes.com. Just don?t rely on them for anything of value regarding sports.
See, Forbes is great at evaluating big business based on their profit margins, growth rates and stock prices, but often times the corporate world lacks the human capital element. CEOs, management and employees are all very important. I know this, trust me I went to a business college. But bringing in the nation?s best salesmen isn?t going to have the same effect as bringing in the game?s best swingman.
Forbes recently released their first-ever professional sports general manager rankings. They evaluated some 98 current GMs based on performance (wins during their tenure versus that of their predecessor) and the payroll they had to work with along the same comparison (against predecessor). Right off the bat the authors, Jack Gage and Peter J. Schwartz, are setting themselves up for a jaded ranking system.
Suppose Donald Sterling sells the Los Angeles Clippers to Donald Trump in the next ten years. In the process Trump fires Elgin Baylor and brings in a guy of his own, likely the most recent winner of ?The Apprentice.? All of a sudden the new GM has a multitude of financial options and can buy and sell players with the frequency of a NASDAQ stock broker. The new GM might see a huge increase in winning percentage, which is double-weighed in Forbes system. That means that the Apprentice GM would earn a higher ranking than former, more basketball-savvy, GM Elgin Baylor, despite the lack of roster building know-how and the increase in cash flow.
Consider the highest ranked GM on Forbes new list: Kevin McHale. If you ask ten sports journalists to name the five best, heck even the ten best, GMs in the game of basketball chances are that none are going to utter the name Kevin McHale. Things were going well for McHale in the beginning, but as of late he?s been harshly criticized for not surrounding Kevin Garnett with the proper talent, and rightfully so. Sure he?s led the Timberwolves to eight playoff appearances and a winning percentage above .500, but not many would consider him the best GM in the NBA, let alone professional sports as a whole.
You might ask, why did McHale earn such a high rating? No, these guys aren?t Minnesota fans, the rankings were completed solely based on numerical values. The reason the former Celtics player?s rating is so high is because his predecessor?s franchise winning percentage was less than twenty-five percent.
I hate to keep referring to hoops, but the next name on the list that jumped out at me was Billy King. The Philadelphia GM ranks third overall on Forbes GM rankings. Billy King, are you kidding me? The same Billy King who?s potential was reached six years ago when the Sixers fell to the Lakers in the NBA Finals? The same Billy King who recently traded Allen Iverson and cut Chris Webber? The same Billy King that was leading a struggling team even before he lost those two all-stars? This is the guy who traded Larry Hughes and Bruce Bowen for an aging Toni Kukoc, and he?s ranked ahead of ninety-five other professional sports general managers.
For all that is wrong with Forbes? list, there are some things that make sense. Bill Polian, recent Super Bowl winner and GM of the Colts, certainly deserves his ninth overall ranking. As does San Diego?s A.J. Smith, despite his firing of coach Marty Schottenheimer over personal differences (we?ll have to see if he falls next year).
In the NBA, guys like John Paxson, Geoff Petrie, and Joe Dumars belong within the top fifteen, maybe even higher.
And as much as it hurts to admit Patriots? GM Scott Pioli is very deserving of his spot (20th).
But something jumped out at me when I scanned the bottom of the rankings.
95 Carroll Dawson, Houston Rockets.
Dawson is my pick for Executive of the Year in the NBA, and will probably earn enough votes to place at least second or third. Yet he?s the lowest ranked NBA GM on the list, just below Toronto?s Bryan Colangelo, another mystery of the numbers. Dawson built a team that could withstand the almost inevitable loss of Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady to injury this season. Now the Rockets are sitting pretty in the Western Conference, despite the presence of dominant teams like the Suns and Mavericks. And he?s the lowest ranked NBA GM, and only two shy of the worst in all of sports? Come on.
There?s a human aspect to this job that cannot be quantified. Imagine that Danny Ainge signs Tony Allen to a five-year, $30 million contract, but he never plays because Paul Pierce remains healthy all season. Should that have the same effect on his GM rating as the recent signing of Shane Battier would to Dawson? Battier, who by-the-way did get that five-year, thirty million dollar deal, stepped in while McGrady and Yao where injured and helped Houston score some wins. Not more wins than the Rockets would have posted had they not suffered injuries, but wins nonetheless. In my example Ainge spent money that he didn?t have to, while Dawson dished out cash that may have saved Houston?s season. Putting that kind of transaction in numbers is hard, and it doesn?t seem that Forbes even tried.
Also, they extended a GM?s tenure from team-to-team. How can you rate it like that? For example Bryan Colangelo is listed as having eleven years of service as a GM, but it?s only his first with Toronto. Why should his track record with Phoenix affect his ranking with the surging Raptors? It doesn?t seem to make much sense to me.
Forbes might be spot-on when it comes to the business world, but they shouldn?t have attempted to elbow their way into the analysis of professional sports. But to their credit, evaluating general managers isn?t the easiest of tasks. In addition to the numerical statistics, the human aspect of the job needs to come into play. Then the moves that guys like Carroll Dawson made would show up in the rankings.
Here at RealGM sports is our business, so in the coming days and weeks we will be putting our preverbal brains together in order to derive a more accurate formula for evaluating the GMs of the world. One way to do so more accurately might be to assign slightly different formulas for each sport. Anyway, you sit back and enjoy the start of the baseball season and the exciting NBA and NHL action down the stretch and we?ll do some heavy lifting.
How would you rate the sporting world?s GMs?: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com