Heading into the 2007-2008 college basketball season and its heralded freshman class, I was most bullish on Michael Beasley and Derrick Rose, with O.J. Mayo coming in shortly behind those two, but after the first stretch of the season in which I watched Mayo play Miami, Southern Illinois, Oklahoma, Kansas and Memphis, his stock has solidified and even risen.
In an NBA in which very few players can create their own offense, Mayo will be elite.
He creates separation off the dribble to generate space to get his jumper off, but what is more impressive and refined is his knack for preserving his dribble, squaring up in a triple-threat position with purpose and intent. He is able to back defenders up with jab steps, which sets things up for when he does put the ball on the floor, where he is highly imaginative, utilizing a wide array of moves to score.
Mayo seems to be more comfortable shooting off the dribble than he does on the catch-and-shoot, which could be due to his outrageously large hands and how those hands are able to catch the ball and reposition to shoot. He also enjoys posting up from about 12 feet out, a characteristic that made Michael Jordan so dangerous and is a key component of Kobe Bryant's game.
He has already shown marked improvement in his ability to move without the ball since his first few collegiate games. He uses screens intelligently and prepares his hands to catch the ball well in advance of actually receiving the pass.
The form on his jump shot is highly developed, using great rotation and a high arc that has a great deal of touch. Mayo is a very, very good shooter but streaky at times, and I?m not quite ready to label him a pure shooter though he shows the promise to develop into one, particularly with how much attention he is paid by opposing defenders. He is shooting 37.5% from 3-point territory, and his true shooting percentage is 54%, which isn?t awful for a freshman volume scorer.
The best way to defend him is with hard on-ball pressure followed by close help defense against penetration. Because of the strength of his jumper, he prefers to shoot from 12-15 feet out instead of driving to the bucket. This often times leads him to getting caught in the air, causing bad shots and errant passes. Forcing him to use the dribble but playing him tight to not let him get his jumper off also seems to cause him to over-dribble.
He can get to the rim, but more often than not he lays the ball up or shoots runners rather than attacking the rim with dunks.
He has great natural instincts as a passer, especially in finding the open man when drawing a double-team, but he is not a preternatural passer. Mayo is, however, a very unselfish player and with his excellent court vision is looking for his teammates, especially Davon Jefferson (RealGM Prospect Report on Davon Jefferson), as much as looks for his own shot.
He has shown the ability to play the point, but he rarely brings the ball up the floor for USC, as those duties fall primarily to Daniel Hackett. As it is, Mayo is more valuable to his team and more suited to the shooting guard position.
Mayo is a highly intelligent 20-year-old (scored in 95 percentile on ACT) and has a phenomenal basketball IQ, but his off-ball defensive awareness needs work and is his most glaring weakness. This area of his game can be classified as fundamentally poor, as his vision is almost exclusively on his man, regardless of where the ball is. Mayo gets himself spun around and is very susceptible to the back door, as well as not being in position to give his teammates help when their men beat him.
Boxing out isn?t always a priority and though he can get into the air and rebound when needed, he hasn?t shown it to be a priority to date.
It will be impossible for this aspect of Mayo?s game not to improve and should catch up to his greatness as an on-ball defender, something he seems to thoroughly enjoy. His defense of Rose in the Memphis game was particularly impressive. He has lightening-quick reaction time into the passing lanes and can block shots in transition due to an impressive swift elevation.
Though shorter and slightly less athletic than both Jordan and Bryant, Mayo is headed for this type of individual career.
Despite a history of character issues, from every moment I've seen, his character appears impeccable. He plays the game in a very stoic yet passionate manner.
His status as a top-three pick in the 2008 NBA draft is inevitable and extremely warranted.