The Blazers are my alternative favorite team (behind the locational Warriors), and I still haven't taken an NBA loss quite as hard since they lost to the Lakers in that 2000 Western Conference Finals Game 7.
So it pleased me a great deal when Portland consecutively had the ROY in Brandon Roy, won the lottery (made the right draft choice), and then bought Rudy Fernandez from Phoenix for $3 million in cash (if I were Kevin Pritchard, I would have delivered a briefcase with $3 million in actual cash to Robert Sarver).
They then went on to finish the season with a 41-41 record and were 16th in per game FIC differential (-0.9, which was a +7.3 improvement from last season). The Blazers were embraced as one of the feel-good stories of the season when they rattled off 13 consecutive wins and would have easily made the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.
A young, talented, and hard-working .500 team will naturally upgrade themselves with the additions of Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, and a late lottery pick.
Player: Overall Rank, Season FIC, Per 40 FIC, Reina Value
- Brandon Roy: 40th, 994, 14.2, +305%
In his rookie of the year campaign, Roy had a 12.2 per 40 FIC and the Blazers were 1.5 points per 100 possessions worse when he was on the floor. This season, Roy upgraded his per 40 FIC two whole points, and the Blazers were 6.1 points per 100 possessions better with him.
How did Roy make such a significant improvement?
It wasn't through FG% (that dropped ever so slightly from 45.6% to 45.4%), nor was it through 3-point% (drop from 37.7% to 34.0%), and it wasn't due to an increase from the line (drop from 83.8% to 75.3%); it is extremely rare for a player to decrease his efficiency in these shooting categories but become a significantly better player on the whole.
Using his phenomenal body control, Roy was able to get into the lane nearly at will where he is extremely adept at drawing fouls, but more of his buckets in this area of the floor were assisted in comparison to last season. This was one area Portland improved upon significantly as they went from dead last in assists (18.5 per game) to 18th (21.1 per game). Roy's own assist/turnover ratio rose from 2.0 to 3.2.
But in the 4th quarter when creating offense gets tougher, Roy was even better; 27% of his points came in the final frame, and he would beat his man off the dribble nearly at will and shot an incredibly effective percentage.
For a team that will be built around Oden, the Blazers will have a compulsive tendency to lean on Roy in those most tense moments and wins will not go unmet.
- LaMarcus Aldridge: 53rd, 881, 13.3, +131%
Like Roy, Aldridge improved his per 40 FIC, though a not as significant jump of +1.3. His field goal percentage dropped from 50.3% to 48.4%, but he doubled his per game attempts with the departure of Randolph.
Already primarily a face-up jump-shooting four, Aldridge shot even more mid-post jumpers in his second season than he did as a rookie. More of those jumpers were created by his own efforts, and even though this kind of high-post four should work ideally with Oden, I would like to see Aldridge play bigger and draw more fouls. In doing so, Aldridge would also be more valuable as an offensive rebounder since he grabbed nearly as many offensive rebounds per game as a minute starved rookie as he did this season playing nearly 35 minutes per night.
- Steve Blake: 108th, 635, 10.5, +38%
Blake has played for four different teams in five seasons, and he has clearly had the best success in Portland. He returned to the Blazers after a one season absence in which he split time between Denver and Milwaukee and shot over 40% from three and had a 3.7 assist/turnover ratio.
The Blazers were 6.1 points per 100 possessions better with Blake on the floor, which was an overwhelming upgrade over the time given to Jack and Rodriguez.
- Travis Outlaw: 117th, 601, 11.0, +44%
Outlaw was yet another Blazers' player who upgraded his play, going from 9.8 per 40 FIC in 06-07 to 11.0 this season while playing more four than ever before. His rebound rate was easily the best since his rookie campaign and he became a 3-point shooter that defenders have to contest, shooting 39.6%. From the floor he only shot 43.3%, which should naturally improve as he becomes a more selective jump shooter and when he relies more on his athleticism to attack the basket.
- Joel Przybilla: 118th 592, 13.0, +0%
As far as efficient rebounding and scoring goes, Przybilla had the best season of his career, but he declined for the second consecutive season as a shotblocker. In 7.5 more minutes per game, Przybilla's blocks per game dropped from 1.6 to 1.2. He has three more seasons remaining on his contract, and his playing time will decrease significantly with Oden's debut.
- Jarrett Jack: 127th, 571, 10.2, +346%
Jack's minutes decreased as he was bumped by Blake, and his efficiency dropped as well. His assist/turnover dropped from 2.2 to 1.8, FG% dropped from 45.4% to 43.1%, but he became a better rebounder. The difference between Blake's point guard production and Jack's was glaring, and he is a candidate to be dealt to one of the many teams in dire need of a backup point guard.
- Martell Webster: 161st, 478, 9.0, +34%
Like Jack, Webster is a candidate to be dealt this summer as they will likely need to make room for Fernandez. Webster had a 7.1 per 40 FIC in his sophomore season, so the patience for improvement of a player who would now be a senior in college must be kept in mind. He nudged his 3-point shooting percentage up to 38.8% and shot 42.2% from the floor, but his inability to consistently create his own shot is troubling. Webster looks like his ceiling is just about where teammate James Jones is currently.
- Channing Frye: 192nd, 394, 11.8, +29%
In Frye's final season in New York he had a per 40 FIC of 8.1, but as a rookie he was at 12.3, so 07-08 saw the face-up big rebound. The Blazers were 3.3 points per 100 possessions better with Frye on the floor, but he still has that deer in the headlights look on his face too often.
His shooting percentage rose to 48.9%, which was actually higher than his rookie season, largely due to the Blazers' superior ability to create open jumpers for him.
- James Jones: 232nd, 310, 9.7, -17%
Jones was third in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage, hitting at a clip of 44.4% and becoming the perimeter specialist the Pacers and Suns believed he always was. He would benefit from developing a better shot off the dribble in that mid-range area. But like nearly everyone else on the club, his per 40 FIC efficiency rose from 8.5 during his final season in Phoenix.
- Sergio Rodriguez: 306th, 131, 8.3, +47%
Rodriguez's per 40 FIC clip dropped from 12.6 in 06-07 to 8.3 this season as he was one of the only Blazers to regress during their surprisingly successful 07-08. This was primarily due to Rodriguez suddenly forgetting how to shoot as his FG% dropped from 42.3% to 35.2%, and more alarmingly his FT% dropped from 80.8% to 65.8%.
His assist/turnover ratio fell from 2.8 to 2.3 and even though his defense was decent, the Blazers had gross difficulties in scoring when Rodriguez was manning the offense.
- Raef LaFrentz: 356th, 63, 8.7, -94%
The clock on LaFrentz's $12.7 million for 08-09 can't tick quick enough for anyone living in Portland other than maybe his own gardner. He's not exactly horrible, but he is what he is and will play even less next season.
- Josh McRoberts: 414th, 13, 21.7, -18%
McRoberts played extremely sparingly for Portland and spent some time in the D-League. His per 40 FIC is at an MVP level, but he only played 30 minutes as a rookie.
- Von Wafer: 434th, 6, 1.5, -90%
Wafer only played eight games for Portland, averaging 8.1 minutes and 2.4 points per game. He is unlikely to be back in Portland in 08-09.
How The Blazers Were Acquired
- Aldridge, Jack McRoberts, Oden, Outlaw, Rodriguez, Roy, and Webster were drafted by the Blazers.
- Blake and Przybilla were free agent signings.
- Frye, Jones, LaFrentz, Miles, and Wafer were acquired in trades.
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of The Reina Value which determines the value of players in relation to their contract.