Update: The below article now becomes effectively null and void following Oklahoma City's decision to rescind the Tyson Chandler Trade
The disappointment of New Orleans trading Tyson Chandler hit me a few hours after the trade became official on Tuesday. After pouring over their roster, short and long term cap situation and the emails I received about the fear of Chris Paul wasting several years of his prime on a team that isn't adequately equipped to compete, I began to think like a trigger happy Trade Checker fiend.
But before I begin, I need to preface this piece with a couple of disclosures:
1. I love hearing the Ric Flair 'Wooooo!' when watching Hornets games as much as anyone and have consistently pulled for this edition of the club since I covered Paul's first NBA appearance at MSG when he scored 27 points to go with 13 assists and seven rebounds and created some 'this could be the beginning of a HOF career' buzz among the reporters in the tunnel.
2. I also have a sordid history of believing that you can trade young superstars in a huge package deal that yields an over-inflated return. This comes from the untranslatable differences between sports and the Herschel Walker launching the Cowboys dynasty in football and all of the brilliant four prospects for one star deals in baseball, I erroneously suggested the Cavaliers consider dealing LeBron James after his sophomore season, which was undoubtedly the dumbest thing anyone has ever written on RealGM.
My thinking was that the Cavaliers would be unable to land the requisite 'other' superstar to get the team over the top and that they would be stuck somewhere in the second round of the playoffs without cap flexibility and without any high quality picks.
Cleveland is still looking for the 'other' superstar, but they have built an excellent supporting cast of 'helpers' around LeBron, who admittedly has become even more dominant than I and many others even dreamt he would.
I have also and more importantly been converted by Elrod Enchilada's 'Superduperstar Theory' of winning championships.
3. No sane person expects the following to happen or even be discussed.
...The thing that underlies LeBron and the Cavs and even more so with Paul and the Hornets is that both of these players measurably and also immeasurably make their teammates significantly better players; David West and Mo Williams are very good pieces on any team, but are unlikely All-Stars in Minnesota or well, Milwaukee.
But where do the Hornets realistically go from here now that they've traded a big that they have virtually no shot of replacing? They won't have cap room until the summer of 2012 when Peja Stojakovic finally comes off the books and that is also when they will have to double West's salary. That is also the season in which Chris Paul will effectively have his walk year as he has a player option for 2012-13. Paul may not have the temperament of Kobe, but I don't see how he won't begin actively voicing his displeasure of withering on a going nowhere team.
Paul can transform a lot of players but with their financial restraints, I don't see where they will find a difference maker, even if they stop selling first round picks to Portland and get lucky with unearthing a gem in the second half of the draft.
But Portland is also the club that could effectively hand the Hornets a bailout. They can offer cap relief, a high character two-time All-Star who is easily one of the best 15 players in the league, a high ceiling lottery pick at point guard and a very affordable combo forward. There isn't another team in the league that could come close to matching this package.
Hornets Receive
Brandon Roy
Jerryd Bayless
Travis Outlaw
Channing Frye
Raef LaFrentz
2009 first round pick
2011 first round pick
2009 second round pick (highest of their three)
Blazers Receive
Chris Paul
Peja Stojakovic
Sean Marks
Melvin Ely
Devin Brown
Note: Since Trade Checker doesn't take poison pills (Chris Paul) into account, I had to work out this trade on Excel and it does come within 125%.
The Hornets currently have $64.7M committed for 09-10 and $57.4M committed for 10-11. With this trade and not counting draft picks, New Orleans would have $50.4M committed in 09-10, or $46.1M if they do not extend Frye's $4.26M qualifying offer and $35.4M during the summer of 2010. Roy will be a restricted free agent that summer if they don't extend him, but they likely will and so a more realistic cap number will be $43.89 million.
New Orleans, a team reportedly hemorrhaging money, would feature a much more fiscally reasonable club with a still competitive rotation that should win just about as many games as how they're currently constructed. Roy is already one of the best fourth quarter scorers in the NBA and with Bayless that should be one of the best backcourts for many years to come.
For Portland, the loss of a wing scorer like Roy can not be understated but acquiring Paul gives them a better chance to ultimately win a championship. He would make Oden and Aldridge, but particularly Oden a much better offensive player and Paul is also nearly a whole year younger than Roy.
Even though I think Portland is more likely to agree to a trade of this magnitude than the Hornets, I think it is riskier for them. They could instead convert RLEC into a high talent small forward and not mess with the depth and youth that they've built and let that core continue to develop at its own pace.
But Chris Paul is Chris Paul.