The 2009 NBA Playoffs are here and unlike last year when the Lakers/Celtics were looming with such huge inevitability that every magazine and television station had five days of old stock footage ready by Christmas, this year is just slightly more open. The Kobe/LeBron match-up looks like a relative lock due to a banged up KG and down for the count Ginobili.
The Lakers are good enough to win the Western Conference without Andrew Bynum and he is back and moving well, so even though Houston and Denver could potentially be trying matchups, they are an even better lock for the Finals than they ever were during the 2001 Shaq/Kobe run.
In the Eastern Conference, the Cavaliers are heads and shoulders better than both Boston and Orlando, especially if Garnett isn't 90% back. The Cavaliers are rightfully the proverbial favorites, but I do think they will have a far tougher time finding secondary scorers in the playoffs and that will truly be the deciding factor since both the Celtics and Lakers are equipped to neutralize LeBron James in at least a couple of the games.
* FIC differential in each game listed below.
Cleveland vs. Detroit
Season Ledger
November 19th, at Detroit: Pistons 96, Cavaliers 89
FIC: Pistons +6.7
February 1st, at Detroit: Cavaliers 90 (64.4), Pistons 80 (47.8)
FIC: Cavaliers +16.6
February 22nd, at Cleveland: Cavaliers 99 (96.0), Pistons 78 (55.4)
FIC: Cavaliers +40.6
March 31st, at Cleveland: Cavaliers 79 (64.3), Pistons 73 (40.5)
FIC: Cavaliers +23.8
Three Questions
1. What kind of fight will Detroit even put up with Rasheed nearly gone and their salary cap space looming?
2. Will Mo Williams seamlessly shift his regular season into the playoffs?
3. Does Cleveland prefer Atlanta or the Miami Wades?
Comparable Match-Up
(Explanation below..)
Prediction
Cavaliers in four games.
The Cavaliers will do something similar to the Pistons as what Jay-Z would do to Chris Brown if he had him alone in a room for about 20 minutes.
Celtics vs. Bulls
Season Ledger
October 31st, at Boston: Celtics 96, Bulls 80
FIC: Celtics +30.1
December 19th, at Boston: Celtics 126, Bulls 108
FIC: Celtics +54.8
March 17, at Chicago: Bulls 127, Celtics 121
FIC: Bulls +13.0
Three Questions
1. Can the Celtics dominate without Garnett at full health?
2. What kind of coming out party will Derrick Rose have in the playoffs?
3. What kind of postseason difference-maker will Stephon Marbury be in this run?
Comparable Match-Up
vs.
(Relatively self-explanatory with the stately 'Cheers', which takes place in Boston and the Chicago-based 'Family Matters'. Rose is Stefan Urquelle and Noah is regular old Steve.)
Prediction
Celtics in six games, seven if KG doesn't play at all.
Because Garnett isn't 100% and the Hawks took Boston to seven games in the first round last year, the Bulls should fully expect to compete and have a solid chance to win a couple game and make the defending champions earn it.
Magic vs. Sixers
Season Ledger
November 6, at Orlando: Magic 98, Sixers 88
FIC: Magic 21.9
November 26th, at Philadelphia: Magic 96, Sixers 94
FIC: Sixers +1.7
February 28th, at Philadelphia: Magic 106, Sixers 100
Three Questions
1. Do the Sixers have enough firepower to pose a realistic threat, especially on the wings?
2. How much of a factor will the Hedo Turkoglu injury hurt Orlando?
3. Can Dwight Howard do more offensively in the playoffs?
Comparable Match-Up
vs.
(When I wrote the first draft of this preview Wednesday afternoon, I had Superman for Orlando and Batman for Chicago, so I instead substituted the embarrassingly similar looking mascots.)
Prediction
Magic in 5 games.
Orlando isn't exactly coming into the playoffs on a high and will benefit greatly playing Philadelphia instead of the Bulls, as the Sixers needed overtime to defeat a Cavaliers team without LeBron James.
Hawks vs. Heat
Season Ledger
December 12th, at Miami: Hawks 87, Heat 73
FIC: Hawks +35.0
January 26th, at Miami: Heat 95, Hawks 79
FIC: Heat +24.8
February 27th, at Atlanta: Hawks 91, Heat 83
FIC: Hawks +11.5
April 14th, at Atlanta: Hawks 81, Heat 79
FIC: Heat +1.2
Three Questions
1. Can the Hawks keep Dwyane Wade off the free throw line?
2. Will Flip Murray be that third scorer as he's been this season against Miami?
3. Can Michael Beasley be Miami's X-factor continuing his excellent play in April?
Comparable Match-Up
vs.
(Another self-explanatory one, I hope.)
Prediction
Miami in six games.
When there isn't a huge gap between the quality of one team over another, I side with the team that has the clear-cut best player and was one of the best three players in the NBA.
Western Conference
Lakers vs. Jazz
Season Ledger
January 2nd, at Los Angeles: Lakers 113, Jazz 100
FIC: Lakers +10.9
February 11th, at Utah: Jazz 113, Lakers 109
FIC: Jazz +15.3
April 14th, at Los Angeles: Lakers 125, Jazz 112
FIC: Lakers +22.4
Three Questions
1. Can Utah steal a game in L.A. to force the Lakers to win in the difficult SLC?
2. How many minutes will Phil extend to Bynum?
3. Does Jerry Sloan have any type of defensive strategy on slowing down Kobe, who has torched Utah with a 40 and a 37?
Comparable Match-Up
Vs.
(Two of North America's biggest show business families.)
Prediction
Lakers in five games.
The Lakers have too much respect for what Utah is capable of, particularly at home, to take them lightly, which is the only way the series shifts back to Salt Lake City for Game six.
Nuggets vs. Hornets
Season Ledger
November 27th, at Denver: Hornets 105, Nuggets 101
FIC: Nuggets: +1.1
January 3rd, at Denver: Nuggets 105, Hornets 100
FIC: Nuggets +20.5
January 28th, at New Orleans: Hornets 94, Nuggets 81
FIC: Horents +23.6
March 25th, at New Orleans: Nuggets 101, Hornets 88
FIC: Nuggets +12.8
Three Questions
1. Will it be Carmelo or Chauncey taking the big shots late in games?
2. What kind of support can Chris Paul muster out of his teammates?
3. Who will win the battle up front between West/Chandler and Nene/K-Mart?
Comparable Match-Up
vs.
(I had a tough time finding a proper photo of Lil Wayne and I might be in the minority in not getting annoyed by the Ric Flair soundboard in New Orleans.)
Prediction
Nuggets in five.
The Nuggets are too strong and physical for New Orleans to really be much more than a tackling dummy.
Spurs vs. Mavericks
Season Ledger
November 4th, at San Antonio: Mavericks 98, Spurs 81
FIC: Mavericks +30.9
December 9th, at Dallas: Spurs 133, Mavericks 126
FIC: Spurs 6.6
February 24th, at San Antonio: Spurs 93, Mavericks 76
FIC: Spurs 34.2
March 4th, at Dallas: Mavericks 107, Spurs 102
FIC: Mavericks 24.6
Three Questions
1. How will San Antonio score in the fourth quarter without the Manu option?
2. Will Dirk shake his playoff demons?
3. Can Jason Kidd be counted on to contain Tony Parker?
Comparable Match-Up
vs.
(Two of McConaughey's finest roles and while Tony Parker is Jake Brigance, Dirk is decidedly more David Wooderson.)
Prediction
Spurs in seven.
The absence of Ginobili cannot be understated, but the Spurs are too professional and the Mavericks aren't at full strength themselves in order to pull off the upset.
Blazers vs. Rockets
Season Ledger
November 6th, at Portland: Blazers 101, Rockets 99
FIC: Blazers +6.3
February 24th, at Houston Rockets 98, Blazers 94
FIC: Rockets +16.7
April 5th, at Houston: Rockets 102, Blazers 88
FIC: Rockets +21.1
Three Questions
1. Will there be any nerves for Portland since this is the first playoff rodeo for most of their core?
2. How will Shane Battier and Ron Artest defend Brandon Roy?
3. What will Yao be able to get going offensively against Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden?
Comparable Match-Up
vs.
(Jennifer Garner was number one in Maxim's Top 100 in 2002, the year Yao Ming was voted, but Portland is today's internet-frenzy 'it girl.')
Prediction
Blazers in seven.
The Rockets might have an edge in a few ways, but the homecourt and the huge advantage of the Blazers having their 4th quarter scorer (Brandon Roy) healthy and on the floor, while Houston's (Tracy McGrady) is injured and missing turns things in Portland's favor.