Normally I like to start the McDonald’s All-American game preview by telling you how last year’s game was our first chance to see future pros and college basketball’s next generation of one-and-done stars. But you will have to forgive me if I pretend the 2012 event didn’t happen.

UCLA’s Shabazz Muhammad played in the event last year and led all scorers with 21 points. You know, the same Shabazz Muhammad who lied about his age all these years so he could be playing against younger competition to improve his draft stock.

Cameron Ridley of Texas played in the event last year and he looked like potentially one of the better incoming centers. And then he averaged four points a game for a dreadful Texas squad.

North Carolina’s Marcus Paige played in the event last year and had seven assists. For much of the season Paige’s ORtg was below 90, until a hot final month of the season finally gave Tar Heel fans hope for the future.

Kentucky’s Nerlens Noel played in this game last year. You know, the same Nerlens Noel who didn’t really develop an offensive game until late December. And Noel, despite missing most of the season with a knee injury, is still viewed by many as the least risky NBA draft choice this year.

During Robert Morris’ first round NIT upset of Kentucky, I thought Jimmy Dykes hit the nail on the head with the 2012 group of super-elite talent. He was mainly talking about the three Kentucky freshmen, but the same could be said for many in last year’s McDonald’s All-American game. “Archie Goodwin, Alex Poythress and Willie-Cauley Stein are still being projected as first round draft picks. I don’t see it. Those guys need another year or two of college basketball. There is a huge difference between being draftable and making an NBA roster. If you aren’t careful you find yourself playing in the D-league for a couple of years playing for the Maine Redclaws or the Fort Wayne Mad Ants, staying in hotel rooms with outside doors.”

Hmm, of all the things about staying in a cheap hotel room, the outside doors never struck me as that significant.

But the point is simple. With a few exceptions (Anthony Bennett, Marcus Smart) last year’s class didn’t quite live up to typical McDonald’s All-American game standards. But I am confident that this year’s class will be different. First, the top 2013 prospect Andrew Wiggins is better than anyone in last year’s class. I know this not only because of all the great scouting reports I have read about Wiggins, but also because of what he did on the basketball court against the 2012 class. As a junior in last year’s Nike Hoop Summit, Wiggins dominated. He scored 20 points for the international team, frequently beating his 2012 competition with athletic moves to the basket.

But this class is about more than just Wiggins. Indiana fans annoyed at Syracuse’s overwhelming size in the Sweet Sixteen will be happy to see a versatile Top 10 forward named Noah Vonleh in action. Vonleh will ensure that even if Cody Zeller declares for the draft, Indiana will still have plenty of front-court strength. Florida fans who wanted more close-game decision making this year will be pleased to see Top 10 PG Kasey Hill in action. Hill lacks the size of the Harrison twins (Andrew and Aaron), which might make him a multi-year star with the Gators.

Oh, and if you love or hate Kentucky, you must watch this game. On paper, Kentucky has the top recruiting class of all time. Randle, the Harrison twins, James Young, Dakari Johnson, and Marcus Lee give the Wildcats 6 of the top 20 players in this year’s class. (Sadly 4 of them are on the West team and 2 of them are on the East team. I was really hoping to see 5 future Kentucky players on the floor at the same time for the same squad.)

And if seeing future stars does not provide enough drama, Top 5 prospect Aaron Gordon will announce his college decision during the game. Even if we should probably burn the tape from the 2012 event, 2013 is a true glimpse at future glory.

The Pac-12 has been suffering through a long dark period. The Big Ten has been dominant (at least in the pre-conference schedule) for the last few years. Should we expect a change this year? Is the Pac-12’s slump over? Is the Big Ten’s boom about to come to an end? Let’s take a quick look at some basic roster data and see if we can uncover any trends.

Part of predicting the season is noting the number of elite high school prospects on each roster. Not only are these players more likely to play well as freshmen, but they are also more likely to breakout later in their career. Recall, for example, Michael Snaer of Florida St. Snaer was a former Top 20 recruit, and while it took him three seasons, he broke out in a big way in 2011-12. After adding up the numbers…

- The Big East has the most former RSCI Top 100 prospects on rosters heading into the season with 58.

- But the Big East has more teams, and the Big East has only 3.9 elite recruits per team. The ACC has the most former Top 100 recruits per team with 4.6 per team.

- But James McAdoo is the only former Top 10 prospect in the ACC this season. That seems like an unprecedented lack of super-elite talent for the conference. If you want super elite talent, you probably want to watch the SEC, assuming everyone is declared academically eligible. John Calipari never lets us down on the recruiting trail.

- The SEC, however, is only welcoming ten Top 100 freshmen this year as a whole. Even the Big Ten, the land of typically poor recruiting, is welcoming more Top 100 freshmen than the SEC this season. And yes, the slumping Pac-12 brings in quite a few elite recruits this year.

The next table isn’t really roster data, but it does reflect some of my preliminary projections about playing time.

- The ACC is going to be the youngest conference in the nation this year, according to my projections.

- The Big East has a startlingly low number of key seniors on rosters this year.

- As usual, the MWC and A10 have more mature rosters. They lose fewer players to the NBA and that helps the top MWC and A10 teams compete, even without a plethora of blue chip talent.

The Pac-12 is getting older in a hurry, thanks in no small part to an influx of transfers. Note that your transfer numbers may vary slightly. I’m excluding transfer walk-ons and a few JUCOs who seem unlikely to play in the next table.

The transfer table doesn’t mean the Pac-12 has suddenly become the conference of transfers. This is all a natural consequence of recent league history. The Pac-12 teams have struggled the last few years making those teams particularly attractive places for transfers to matriculate. If you want to transfer and PLAY in an elite league, you would have chosen the Pac-12 too.  On the other hand, the Big Ten has been on an upswing and few coaches have needed to dip into the JUCO ranks as a quick fix. Deverell Biggs of Nebraska is currently the only incoming JUCO player projected for the Big Ten this year.

Overall, the Pac-12 was a depleted league, but it is adding a number of impact freshmen and key transfers this year. The days of the league failing to field a Top 25 team are over. As for the Big Ten, the jury is still out. The teams at the top still have plenty of talent, but programs like Purdue could be in for a bit of a slip without an influx of can’t miss players coming in.

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I’m beta-testing a new predictions model based on 10 years of player stats. In this piece, I want to share a few preliminary numbers, while explaining where I disagree with other college basketball experts.

1. Is Michigan still a top 25 team?

In February, I could understand the love for Michigan. The Wolverines' projected 2012-13 lineup looked something like this:

Tim Hardaway really struggled with his three-point shooting last year, but based on his shooting prowess as a freshman (76 made threes), I expect his outside game to return. It is not uncommon for shooting guards to see their efficiency jump around, but if you were a good three point shooter once, odds are you can be again. Trey Burke was better than Hardaway in 2012, but based on Hardaway’s two-year profile (and particularly based on that three-point shooting), Hardaway projects to have a slightly more efficient season.Quick Notes:

If you think Jon Horford will crack the lineup, I won’t argue with you. But Horford didn’t play as a freshman, was injured in December last season, and basically hasn’t played meaningful minutes in a Big Ten game yet. That’s not a good profile and his projection reflects that. Based on John Beilein’s historic ability to turn unranked freshman into quality players, red-shirt freshman Max Bielfeldt actually looks marginally better on paper. But if you want to put Horford in the lineup as a backup post player, that isn’t crazy.

The Outlook Changes:

Unfortunately for Michigan, two things happened this spring. First, Mitch McGary plummeted in the recruiting rankings falling from 3rd to 26th. Second, Evan Smotrycz elected to transfer. The difference for Michigan is very significant.

Evan Smotrycz was Michigan’s under-utilized star. Smotrycz was already super-efficient, and as the only returning Michigan player to be ranked out of high school, his potential was still very high. With fellow three point sharp-shooters Zack Novak and Stu Douglass having departed, Smotrycz seemed poised for a breakout season. His loss pushes a bunch of players with weaker projections into a higher spot in the lineup.

More importantly, the historical difference between the 3rd ranked recruit and the 26th ranked recruit is immense. The 3rd ranked recruit is almost always an immediate star. The 26th ranked recruit will usually become a solid college player, but not necessarily make an immediate impact.

With Mitch McGary plummeting in the recruiting rankings, not only does this lower McGary’s projection, it also has spillover effects to the rest of the team. First, Max Bielfeldt (or Jon Horford) is now likely to play more minutes in the post. Second, the weaker overall lineup hurts everyone. Everyone (from Tim Hardaway to Caris Levert) will likely get fewer wide-open shots, and their ORtg projection falls slightly.

For all these reasons, I just don’t see Michigan as a Top 25 team anymore. If you love recruits, even Wisconsin brings in a higher ranked post prospect (Sam Dekker) than Michigan at this point. (Of course knowing Bo Ryan, Dekker will probably red-shirt.) But at least on paper, I have a hard time generating a lineup where Michigan’s offense looks scary enough to deserve an elite ranking.

Caveats:

There are two ways you can generate a stronger prediction for Michigan. First, maybe Michigan’s defense will finally be elite this year. McGary’s biggest impact may very well be on the defensive end. But in 10 years, John Beilein has never had a tempo-free defense ranked in the Top 25 nationally.

Second, Beilein will likely use a tighter lineup than what you see here. I’m projecting more limited minutes for Burke and Hardaway than last season, as Beilein has a bunch of young players that deserve a chance to crack the lineup. Perhaps by the time the Big Ten season comes around, a clear rotation of 7 players will evolve, and Beilein can short-lineup his team to an effective offense. But for his deep recruiting class to pay dividends, those freshmen need a chance to play. And after a rough final year of high school, even Mitch McGary no longer projects as a can’t-miss freshman at the college level.

2. Should Duke be the ACC favorite?

I understand why most people feel lukewarm about Duke heading into this season. Last year was not a vintage season, and while Duke has a few key prospects coming in, none of them have received the hype Austin Rivers did last year. But is Duke really the third best team in the ACC as I’ve seen in some publications? I think the answer all comes down to what you expect Duke to do on defense this year.

In my eyes, 2012 looks like a fluke. It was clearly Mike Krzyzewski’s worst defensive team in a decade. And the last time Krzyzewski had an adjusted defensive rating above 90, his team bounced back substantially.

But another way to look at this data is to say that Duke’s defense has been steadily slipping in recent years. Duke has had four seasons with sub-86 defensive ratings, but only one since 2007. And that year Duke had a 7 footer, Brian Zoubek, manning the interior. (Notice that the solid defense in 2010 coincided with an increase in team height.)

I don’t think that is quite fair though. Zoubek was not, by any stretch of the imagination, a dominant shot-blocker. In fact, Mason and Miles Plumlee both had better block rates in 2012 than Zoubek did in 2010. Perhaps Zoubek’s additional size did help alter shots, but Duke is certainly not lacking size by any historic metric.

The trouble, as many people identified last year, was that Andre Dawkins, Seth Curry, and Austin Rivers were liabilities on defense. You can afford to have one slow-footed shooting guard on the court at once, but putting Curry and Dawkins on the floor together was usually a recipe for disaster. And despite his nice shooting touch, Dawkins saw his playing time slip because of his defense. Now Dawkins is taking a non-basketball related red-shirt and Rivers has left for the NBA. That should translate into better perimeter defense. Freshman Rasheed Sulaimon, Tyler Thornton and a healthy Quinn Cook are likely to be better defenders this season.

Most importantly, I believe that coaching is the most important input on defense, and I cannot see Mike Krzyzewski letting Duke’s defense slip for a second year in a row. He can see the stats as well as I can, and he knows he needs to emphasize that side of the ball from the start of practice in the fall.

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