Last fall on Basketball Prospectus I introduced the first ever lineup-based statistical model. Today, I use that model to project the 2013-2014 ACC college basketball standings:

Proj CW, CL = Projected conference wins and losses

Proj Off, Def = Projected points scored and allowed per 100 possessions against an average D1 team on a neutral floor

Top 100 = Number of players ranked in the RSCI Top 100 out of high school who are on the roster 

Ret Min, Ret Poss = Returning minutes and possessions

Last Off, Last Def = Last year’s offense and defense

Duke: Quinn Cook, Andre Dawkins, Rasheed Sulaimon, Mississippi St. transfer Rodney Hood, Amile Jefferson, #2 recruit Jabari Parker. Yes, Duke is going to be dominant again.

North Carolina: Marcus Paige, PJ Hairston, Leslie McDonald, James McAdoo, and four high potential young forwards (either ready to make the sophomore leap or contribute from day one) should make for a dominant lineup.

Virginia: At the start of April I wrote this: “Everything is coming together for Virginia. They have their three top scorers (really the only guys who scored at all) back from last year. Former Top 100 recruit Mike Tobey should be ready for that sophomore year leap in production. They add depth with South Carolina transfer Anthony Gill. Malcolm Brogdon (who missed the entire season) and Darion Atkins should be back healthy. And Virginia played very good basketball in conference games last year.” The only question mark is point-guard. London Perrantes, Teven Jones, and/or Devon Hall have to come through for this team to meet its expectations. And while at #97 ESPN recruit Perrantes isn’t a sure thing, the model thinks he will easily exceed the efficiency of Jontel Evans. Evans couldn’t shoot at all last year and posted an 83.4 ORtg. When a team loses its most inefficient players and has solid replacements coming in, that team should be substantially improved.

Syracuse: Unfortunately, Syracuse seems poised for another brutal offensive year. There were basically only four guys on the team that could score last year, and three of them are gone. The real problem is the lack of depth on the perimeter. My model has Duke transfer Michael Gbinije playing some minutes at the shooting-guard spot, but as Georgetown saw last year when they tried to play Otto Porter at that spot, a four forward lineup doesn’t have the right spacing. This is especially true given that among Syracuse’s returning forwards only CJ Fair has a true jump shot.

That means Syracuse will have to give a lot of minute to Tyler Ennis, Trevor Cooney, and Ron Patterson. Tyler Ennis might have a higher recruiting rank than Virginia’s London Perrantes, but he still isn’t a guaranteed star where he is rated. And Trevor Cooney was brutal last season. While the model predicts Cooney will be better this year, he certainly can’t be counted on to be a star. And Syracuse hasn’t had much success utilizing unranked freshmen right of the bat which isn’t good for Ron Patterson’s expectations.

DaJuan Coleman might become a high scorer next year, but it is a catch-22. While he is the only returning player who was a high volume shooter, he wasn’t very efficient (89.1 ORtg) last year. Part of that was an injury issue, but even with a fairly sizable jump in efficiency this year, he won’t be able to carry the offense. Don’t be fooled by transfer Michael Gbinije’s ORtg on Statsheet.com. He basically never played for Duke two years ago. The fact that he didn’t play says more about his expectations then whatever numbers he posted in garbage time in a few games. And don’t be fooled by Baye Moussa Keita’s efficiency either. Keita basically never shot last year. Syracuse has eight former Top 100 recruits on the roster, so they have talent. But it isn’t quite the right fit to expect a dominant offense.

Where I think the model may be wrong is not the offense, but the defense. The model is skeptical because Jim Boeheim has only had an adjusted defense below 89.0 once in his career. That one year was last season, so perhaps it will be repeatable. But Michael Carter-Williams had rare size at the PG spot. He made it brutally hard for teams like Indiana to get open looks at three and for players to make basic entry passes. If Cooney and Ennis can duplicate that, then Syracuse may be a Top 10 team.  My model expects a solid but not historic defensive performance from Syracuse.

Pittsburgh: This is going to sound odd, but Pittsburgh probably has a better starting rotation than Syracuse. Talib Zanna was Pittsburgh’s best forward last season. James Robinson was impressive as a first-year PG, and Lamar Patterson was a do-everything player. Meanwhile, JJ Moore is back and he was Pittsburgh’s most efficient bench player. The team also adds highly ranked freshman recruit Mike Young at forward. The real weakness for Pittsburgh is going to be depth. After those five guys, there is a serious drop-off. But keep in mind that Jamie Dixon has only finished with more than six conference losses once in his career. That isn’t going to change even in a stacked ACC.

Maryland: Replacing Alex Len won’t be easy, but the combination of Shaquille Cleare and Charles Mitchell’s development, combined with the addition of a lights out perimeter shooting forward (Michigan transfer Evan Smotrycz) should make it palatable. Pe’shon Howard was so inefficient at the PG slot that his departure is probably addition by subtraction.

Notre Dame: For those of you keeping track, despite being listed as seniors last year, Garrick Sherman and Tom Knight are coming back. I am most interested to see how Mike Brey utilizes freshmen Demetrius Jackson. Brey usually has a short-leash with freshmen. The exception was Luke Harangody, and Jackson might just be that kind of freshmen. What is holding Notre Dame back is that Mike Brey is not an elite defensive coach. And that means the loss of a premiere defensive rebounder like Jack Cooley is a real problem.

Florida St.: Somehow, despite a horrible non-conference season, and terrible margin-of-victory numbers, the Seminoles won nine ACC games last year. I expect Florida St.’s offense and defense to be substantially better than last year. But I don’t expect them to match last year’s exceptional luck. And in an improved ACC, I project Florida St. as a 9-9 team. They will be better, but they might not have more conference wins to show for it.

Of course, if Andrew Wiggins matriculates, this expectation will be much higher.

Looking back, it is hard to believe how dreadful Florida St. played at times last season. The Seminoles scored 36 against Virginia and an even more embarrassing 46 against defensively challenged Wake Forest.  Highly rated freshman Montay Brandon had one of those avert-your-eyes awful seasons. It was amazing how much Leonard Hamilton stuck with him despite his clear offensive struggles. Brandon’s poor performance shows the difference between an old-school coach and a new-school coach. Buzz Williams and Brad Stevens would have never let a player like Brandon waste so many possessions.

But despite these offensive concerns, the real problem was the defense. How did one of the top defensive coaches suddenly forget what he was doing? I think the injury to Ian Miller had a lot to do with it, but the overall team performance was head-scratching. With a healthy Ian Miller, I predict a substantial bounce-back on both ends of the court. But it also depends on Hamilton making better lineup decisions than last season.

Boston College: Notre Dame transfer Alex Dragicevich will add to the team’s depth. But until Boston College starts playing better defense, they won’t make the tournament.

NC State: If you ask Mark Gottfried, he will admit that the lack of depth last year was frustrating. It made it hard to hold legitimate practices. But thanks to a host of defections NC State only has eight scholarship players again. One of those eight players, Jordan Vandenburg has struggled to ever earn playing time and was injured for much of last year. It is possible Vandenburg will break out as a fifth-year senior, but the expectations cannot be that high. The other seven players (including LSU transfer Ralston Turner and JUCO addition Desmond Lee) should all be solid players. But at this point, you have to bank on extreme luck to even put together a decent rotation. No one can get injured. None of the prized recruits can be a bust.

And Mark Gottfried hasn’t exactly been the kind of guy to bring a new crop of recruits together and play top defense right away. NC State probably has a higher upside than some of the teams listed ahead of them, but the downside risk is pretty high too. If everyone (but Vandenburg) comes back, this team will be in much better shape in 2014-15.

Wake Forest: Wait, why is Jeff Bzdelik still the head coach? Senior Travis McKie deserves better.

Georgia Tech: Marcus George-Hunt and Robert Carter were solid scorers as freshman last season and as highly ranked high school recruits, there is no reason to think they won’t make the sophomore leap and become stars this year. Overall Georgia Tech’s offense would be rated higher, but there is a major question mark at the PG slot. Solomon Poole wasn’t ready last year, but the alternatives Corey Heyward and Travis Jorgenson don’t have obvious pedigrees either. Without a strong point-guard and with several offensive liabilities in the rotation, the offense will still be bad.

Clemson: Given that they lose their two best players and have zero players who were elite high school recruits on their roster, I think a lot of preseason predictions will have them even lower than this. There really isn’t anyone on the roster who looks like a likely offensive star. (The only good news is that Clemson was young last year and the sophomore leap should help at least a couple of their freshmen become solid players.) But let’s face it, this is going to be an ugly team to watch. The only reason the model doesn’t have Clemson lower is because of Brad Brownell’s ability to teach defense.

Miami: Give Jim Larranaga credit for what Miami did last year, but this is a rebuilding year. This team was just devastated by graduations and Shane Larkin’s early entry into the draft. I think the lineup-based model may be a little too pessimistic. But the best-case scenario here is probably what Vanderbilt did in the SEC last year.  Don’t count on much from guys like Tony Jekiri and Erik Swoope. Guys who shoot that little rarely become big scorers. I feel bad for Rion Brown.

Virginia Tech: Goodbye Erick Green. Yep, next year isn’t going to be any better.

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During the preseason I went on a podcast with some fine folks from Michigan and said something like this. “Michigan’s freshmen are likely to show flashes of brilliance. But based on where they are in the rankings, I would expect them to be very inconsistent.”

And hey, I’m pretty sure Glenn Robinson had a bad game against Indiana. That’s a sign of inconsistency, right? OK, maybe struggling for one game at the No. 1 team in the nation isn’t a sign of inconsistency. And all Nik Stauskas has done is score in double figures in 21 of the teams 23 games this year. Sure, he needed a few more shots in some of those games, but you can pretty much guarantee he is going to give you 10 points every time out. Meanwhile, Mitch McGary only seems to be getting better as the year goes on. And it hasn’t just been the three ranked recruits. The unranked recruits have been incredibly efficient too.

So I was wrong about Michigan’s freshmen. Without a doubt, I was wrong. But I still think that having Michigan in the preseason Top 10 was a bit of a mistake. This team has clearly exceeded all expectations. Teams with brilliant recruiting classes don’t typically get this type of production.

Let’s take a look back at the teams that were supposed to have the best recruiting classes this year. The next table lists the percentage of minutes freshmen have played for their teams, the percentage of possessions’ used, and the possession-weighted ORtg for these players.

I list the teams with the Top 13 recruiting classes according to CBS Sports.com. For the record, Michigan had the 12th best recruiting class. (Numbers through Tuesday’s games. These are raw ORtg numbers, but adjusting for defensive schedule strength makes a trivial difference as Michigan has played an equivalent or stronger schedule than most of the teams on the list.)

*Technically, the table shows freshmen performance, not recruiting class performance. Alex Murphy and Marshall Plumlee were recruited last year, but red-shirted.

The first thing that should be obvious is that Michigan’s freshmen are far and away the most efficient. I believe there are a number of mitigating factors, and I’ll list those in a moment, but the numbers aren’t even close. Michigan’s freshmen have been unbelievable.

Michigan’s freshmen have also had to play a ton. Due to attrition, John Beilein hasn’t been in a position where he could bring his freshmen along slowly. As we’ve seen with Texas and Kentucky, usually when you have to play freshmen major minutes, there are some growing pains along the way.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Michigan’s freshmen have all been healthy and eligible.

Providence was the only team in the above table deemed to have a worse recruiting class than Michigan. Providence was #13. But the reason I included Providence was to emphasize that sometimes injuries and academic issues can derail a great recruiting class too.  (Suspensions also contributed to Indiana’s poor recruiting class performance.)

Now, there are some mitigating factors. First, Michigan’s freshmen have used relatively few possessions. Because Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. have shot so much, Michigan’s freshmen get to be more judicious in when they attack. But that isn’t always an advantage. Duke’s Amile Jefferson has played better now that he gets to touch the ball more. For young players, playing off the ball and rarely getting touches doesn’t always lead to great shot-selection.

Michigan’s freshmen also get a huge advantage because of the talent level of Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. Plenty of the other teams on this list returned talent too. Pierre Jackson and Brady Heslip were plenty good, Indiana’s returning offensive players were the best in the nation, and so forth. But Michigan’s freshmen stepped into a much more advantageous position than those recruits at Texas. But ultimately, you have to take some credit for what you do on the floor. I can list a lot of unranked freshmen who have gone to talented teams, played very controlled minutes, and still not performed as consistently as Michigan’s Caris Levert and Spike Albrecht.

I also think it is worth noting how these players have helped improve Trey Burke’s game. Now when Burke finds open players, they are finishing. Burke’s assist percentage has improved from 28.6% to 39.8%. And Burke is among the most improved players in the country.

The next table shows the most improved players in the Big Ten in terms of efficiency rating. (Table only includes rotation players, players with over 40% of a team’s minutes.)

In the Big Ten, the only players with bigger ORtg improvements than Trey Burke are Shannon Scott and David Rivers. And both of those players played trivial minutes last year while posting horrific ORtgs. Meanwhile, the player listed in fourth place on this list, Eric May is shooting substantially less than last year. May’s percentage of possessions used has decreased from 19 percent to 14 percent, which likely explains his improvement in efficiency. But Burke is actually shooting more than last year, and he has still improved his ORtg by an unusual amount. The next entry in this table is Victor Oladipo who also deserves all the credit he is getting this season for improving substantially. Given how much Oladipo has improved, to say Burke has improved more is rather unbelievable. 

Since I happen to have them handy, here are the biggest improvements in the Pac-12. Andy Brown played trivial minutes last year, so his improvement is also less significant. Byron Wesley is shooting less, so that explains some of his improvement. Thus in the Pac-12, the only two players that are showing meaningfully similar improvements to Trey Burke are Nick Johnson and Carrick Felix.

By the way, is there anything worse than getting better for a bad team? Mike Ladd and Dexter Kernich-Drew are playing better than last season. But because Washington St. is struggling in the standings, almost no one has noticed. 

On the flip side, we have players who have lost efficiency this year. Don’t blame Brandon Ubel and Dylan Talley too much. Given all the player losses at Nebraska, they’ve had to shoot a lot more. But the key thing I want to emphasize is how Cody Zeller’s efficiency has not improved from last season. Zeller was a preseason player-of-the-year favorite because of how he performed last year. But unlike many of the other player-of-the-year candidates, Zeller has treaded water. It isn’t that Zeller isn’t good. But Zeller hasn’t taken the step forward that some of us imagined. And Zeller doesn’t have the excuse of shooting more. He basically uses the same number of possessions he used last year.

I’m surprised the Pac-12 shows so many big declines as the Pac-12 did add quite a bit of talent this year. One issue is that Pac-12 defense are better, but it is surprising that some former stars are slipping. Abdul Gaddy and Chasson Randle at least have the excuse that they are shooting more. But that doesn’t explain every drop-off on this list. David Wear and Travis Wear are actually shooting less than last year, but the lower shot volume has not translated into a more efficient season.

Bottom line: Michigan deserves to be praised for performing like a Top 10 team this year. But the Wolverines have exceeded expectations to accomplish that. The freshmen have performed above and beyond all expectations. And Trey Burke has improved tremendously from last season. Michigan’s defense still isn’t quite Top 10 caliber. But for a group this young to have the #1 offense in the nation is truly an accomplishment.

- When is Marquette going to start Davante Gardner? He was 6-for-6 from the floor on Saturday and he is by far the Golden Eagles most efficient offensive player. I know Chris Otule is an outstanding defensive player, but it seems crazy to me that Gardner isn’t averaging over 30 minutes a game. Marquette needs every point they can get as they showed in escaping their first three Big East games with narrow wins. Marquette won two of those games in OT, and the third game by one point.

- I love Fran Fraschilla’s commentary on Oklahoma St.’s Le’Bryan Nash. Nash thinks he needs to play like an NBA small forward and dominate the game with his shooting. But what he should really be doing is using his physicality and athleticism to dominate the paint. There is no reason for a player with his skill set to float so much on the perimeter. Nash has a below 4% offensive rebounding rate which is just silly for a player with his ability. Nash’s Oklahoma St. team fell at Oklahoma on Saturday and Nash has to play better for Oklahoma St. to finish near the top of the Big 12.

- Even if Illinois was ranked and Wisconsin was not, smart money said Wisconsin was going to win Saturday’s game. The final margin may have been a bit of a surprise, but after Wisconsin jumped out to a 14-0 lead, it was not particularly shocking. I personally believe the days of Illinois winning at the Kohl center may be numbered. While Bruce Weber’s offense was Bo Ryan’s kryptonite, I think Bo Ryan’s system is a terrible matchup for John Groce’s system. One of the things John Groce has tried to instill at Illinois is an aggressive attacking team that doesn’t regret making mistakes. If Brandon Paul wants to go down the court and take a bad shot, he isn’t going to have to look over at the bench and see Weber threatening to take him out. But Wisconsin is the type of team that crushes careless teams. If you shoot early in the shot-clock, you are going to spend 30 minutes of the 40 minute game on defense. And if you take chances on defense, the Badgers are going to move the ball and wait until they get a wide open three or dunk. While John Groce’s system is more fun to watch and has already paid dividends with the early wins against Butler, Gonzaga, and Ohio St., it isn’t the recipe to beat the Badgers, especially in Madison.

- Butler’s Rotnei Clarke uses fully 30% of his teams shots when on the floor and was coming off a 28 point performance, so it really was a heroic effort for Butler to win at Dayton after Clarke suffered an awful looking head and neck injury early in the game. But six players scored off the bench for the Bulldogs in the win.

- Yes, Elston Turner got hot and scored 40 points, and that is why Texas A&M won at Kentucky. But the scariest part of the win is it didn’t really feel like a fluke. First, Kentucky knew Turner was A&M’s leading scorer, so they need to take the blame for not focusing more on shutting him down. But second, this didn’t seem like some superhuman effort where Kentucky was draped over Turner but he couldn’t miss. (Compare this to the threes Brandon Paul hit with Aaron Craft in his face in the Illinois-Ohio St. game last year.) Turner mostly just seemed to get his shots in the flow of the offense. With about 4 minutes left in the game, the score was tied at 63, and you would have thought Kentucky had the best chance to run its sets and get the victory. But A&M calmly ran its offense and found wide-open shooters, while Kentucky did not. The Aggies simply executed better than the Wildcats, and following their close game against Vanderbilt, Kentucky looks nothing like a Final Four team at this point.

Speaking of real Final Four contenders, Saturday featured two simultaneous noon games of key national importance. Minnesota traveled to Indiana in a battle of Top 10 teams. And Duke traveled to NC State in a battle between the current and preseason ACC title favorite. Through the wonder of the DVR, I was able to watch every minute of both games:

#8 Minnesota at #5 Indiana, #1 Duke and #20 NC State

Pregame North Carolina: The key storyline on this day was that Duke was playing without Ryan Kelly for the first time after Kelly suffered a leg injury. I am very curious to see how Duke responds without Kelly in the lineup. On the one hand, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Duke play better. Kelly’s defensive rebounding remains a liability, and Duke has a number of talented players like Top 25 recruit Amile Jefferson, who are just dying to get more playing time. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see someone blossom in Kelly’s absence. On the other hand, Kelly’s replacements Josh Hairston and Amile Jefferson have not really been good defensive rebounders either, and their inexperience could be costly in certain situations.

Opening Minute NC: Scott Wood nailed a three to give NC State the first points of the game. For the most part Duke did a tremendous job containing Wood on the day, but given that Mike Krzyzewski emphasizes denying three point shots, seeing Wood get an open three early had to bother him.

Opening Minute Indiana: The beauty of Indiana is that the Hoosiers can put four outside shooters on the floor and provide a ton of space for Cody Zeller to operate in the paint. Indiana takes a 4-0 lead on Minnesota when Zeller runs a slip screen at the top of the key and escapes for a wide-open lay-up.

14:30 NC: Duke Freshman Amile Jefferson checks into the game for the first time. At first CJ Leslie attacks Jefferson and draws a foul. But then Jefferson has an extremely nice sequence of game play. Jefferson gets a steal, blocks a Lorenzo Brown drive from behind, and hits a beautiful floater in the lane.

This type of thing has to be extremely frustrating for NC State fans. While NC State’s starters are fantastic, they have so little depth this year that any roster issue could be crippling. When an NC State player was arrested earlier in the week, Wolfpack fans everywhere had a momentary panic attack until realizing it was a walk-on. Meanwhile Duke has elite recruits riding the pine.

13:30 IND: Cody Zeller hedges on a screen attempt. And Zeller actually forces a turnover on Minnesota’s Andre Hollins. Zeller’s  lateral quickness is incredible.

12:20 IND: Indiana’s Yogi Ferrell blocks and alley-oop intended for Minnesota’s Rodney Williams and then runs to the other end of the court for a lay-up. Indiana isn’t an elite defensive team, but they’ve clearly made huge strides from last season and Zeller and Ferrell are a huge reason why.

9:27 NC: Josh Hairston grabs a rebound and CJ Leslie rips it out of his hands. At this point in the game, Jefferson has outplayed Hairston as the Ryan Kelly replacement.

9:14 NC: Rasheed Sulaimon misses a dunk. Fans everywhere get the rare treat of Dick Vitale criticizing a Duke player for not making the smart play and taking the lay-up.  It is worth noting that after Sulaimon scored in double figures in 9 of his first 11 games the scouting reports are starting to come out, and Sulaimon has only hit the double figure mark in 1 of his last 5 games.

8:35 NC: Scott Wood hits a three and gets fouled. But then he foolishly starts jawing with Duke’s Tyler Thornton. Wood is lucky to get a double technical as Thornton is walking away and just shoves Wood to stop Wood from following him. This really looked like a situation where Wood was the only guilty party. Worse yet for Wood, this incident fires up Duke’s defense and Wood doesn’t get an open look at a three the rest of the day.

4:05 NC: CJ Leslie catches an alley-oop over Josh Hairston and I am now convinced Amile Jefferson is the better Ryan Kelly sub.

0:00 NC: TJ Warren hits a buzzer beater just before half-time.

Meanwhile, jumping back a few minutes in Indiana:

10:30 IND: Gus Johnson credits Indiana’s Jordan Hulls with getting a good look at a three, but that isn’t right. Minnesota is playing zone and Hulls dribbles, pump fakes, and then takes a three. That isn’t a rhythm shot and Hulls misses. The next trip down the floor, Hulls catches a pass and launches a shot a full three steps beyond the three point arc. This shot went in because Hulls caught and shot in rhythm.

Shortly thereafter Minnesota’s Andre Hollins drives and tries to take a shot from the top of the key. But Indiana’s Victor Oladipo is up for the block and forces Hollins into a bad pass and turnover instead of taking the jumper. (This may seem subtle, but this play is important later.)

And suddenly the flood waters are unleashed. Indiana goes on an 18-2 run and eventually takes a 23 point lead into half-time. I really cannot explain what it is like when Indiana gets hot offensively. Indiana just has so many scary scorers that they can just blitz teams. At no point did I think Minnesota was playing horrible defense. But all of a sudden I looked up and Indiana had made 7 of 11 threes, a bunch of easy inside baskets, and suddenly the Hoosiers had 52 points at the half and a 23 point lead.

16:21 Second Half IND: Indiana opens up the second half playing sloppy basketball. The Hoosiers commit two offensive fouls and then get called for stepping over the baseline on an inbounds pass. But it is hard to blow a 23 point lead, and Indiana keeps a comfortable margin for most of the half. Even having watched it all on the DVR, I am shocked by how little happens early in the second half. Indiana is coasting and in complete control.

9:12 IND: Zeller has a beautiful drive from the top of the key that results in a one-handed dunk, and the lead is still 19. Pretty much everyone watching the Minnesota vs Indiana game has flipped to Duke vs NC state long ago.

Back in North Carolina:

14:37 NC: Down 8, Josh Hairston dives on the floor for a loose ball.

6:22 NC: Hairston grabs an offensive rebound and kicks it to Seth Curry for a wide-open three. The lead is down to 5. While Hairston’s effort might be questioned in the first half, it cannot be questioned in the second half.

3:25 NC: TJ Warren nails a tough shot from the right side of the key and I continue to wonder why Warren isn’t getting more freshman-of-the-year publicity. He is shooting nearly 70% on the season and never turns the ball over. Perhaps his lack of rebounding has been the issue (and Mason Plumlee did have another huge offensive rebounding day), but Warren hit some key baskets in this game.

3:15 NC: In a very scary moment, Seth Curry collapsed to the floor without being touched. It seems odd to say it, but it was nice to see on the replay that Curry slipped. When I saw it live, I thought for sure he tore his ACL as that would be the only thing that could explain him collapsing like that. But with his leg slipping out from underneath him, it is possible the leg injury is not a full tear. Still, on a day where Duke was relying heavily on Curry’s scoring, his injury essentially locked up the win for NC State.

4:35 IND: The country tunes back into the Minnesota-Indiana game, they see the Hoosiers are still up 15, and they start getting ready for football.

2:48 IND: Indiana’s Victor Oladipo fouls a three point shooter for the second time today. Remember earlier when I mentioned that Oladipo was being super aggressive in trying to block jump shots. Well, Minnesota has figured this out and has adjusted. They are now using Oladipo’s aggression against him.

1:31 IND: Rodney Williams misses a put-back dunk with Minnesota down 8. This seems like a key miss.

0:40 IND: This is probably the most improbable comeback I have ever seen. Minnesota has cut the lead from 23 to 6, but it has never felt like Minnesota had any momentum. The Hoosier crowd has continued to support their team throughout, and Minnesota has never been able to rattle Indiana or go on that 10 point run that really makes you ponder the outcome. But when Christian Watford sends a pass into the bench with a six point lead, for the first time the game looks interesting.

0:20 IND: Minnesota’s Andre Hollins gets Victor Oladipo to jump into the air again and draws the contact. Oladipo fouls out while fouling a Minnesota three point shooter for the 3^rd time on the day. Give Hollins credit for seeing what Oladipo was doing and taking advantage of it. Tom Crean tells Oladipo that the Hoosiers didn’t need a blocked shot at that point. Hollins makes 2 of 3 free throws to cut the lead to 3 points.

0:19 IND: Minnesota fouls on the inbounds pass. Indiana’s Jordan Hulls misses two free throws seemingly giving Minnesota a chance, but Tyler Zeller tips the free throw miss, Minnesota’s Trevor Mbakwe falls to the ground, and the Hoosiers get the ball.

There is something amazingly ironic about one of the Hoosiers’ all-time best free throw shooters missing two in a row, and one of the Gopher’s all-time best rebounders failing to corral a board with the game on the line.

And so Indiana holds on to win, although it doesn’t really feel like a win. While I thought the Hoosiers might have more depth and be able to use it, both teams relied heavily on their starters. Amazingly, all 10 starters in the Minnesota vs Indiana game scored in double figures.

Duke is no longer undefeated and Seth Curry’s injury remain a big concern heading into the week. Luckily he has 10 days to heal up before Duke’s next real test at Miami.

NC State gets the joy of beating Duke, but oddly in a season with high expectations for the Wolfpack, this game was more of a relief than a joy. By beating Duke at home, NC State now has a reasonable chance to win the ACC title. But they have a lot of big games ahead of them.

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