The game of the weekend featured Baylor ending Kentucky’s 55-game home winning streak. I’ve often described Scott Drew as an excellent recruiter, but without the in-season coaching ability of John Calipari. But for at least one afternoon, Scott Drew’s club ended up on top.

A couple of things fascinated me about the game.

First, John Calipari had Kyle Wiltjer on the bench for a long stretch in the second half. And he really had no choice. Wiltjer finished the day 1-for-11 from the floor, and he doesn’t have the defensive ability to stay in the game if his shot isn’t falling. Wiltjer has to find ways to provide value to his team other than just knocking down threes if he is going to be a true leader this season.

Second, I continued to be impressed with the all-around game of Baylor’s Isaiah Austin. I wish he would settle for a few less outside shots, but what I love about Austin is how he always looks extremely focused when on the floor. Even if he commits a turnover or takes a dumb shot, Austin doesn’t ever appear to get rattled.

Of course it is easy to describe an intangible like “quiet confidence” when a player is winning. And with Kentucky losing, it is easy to attack Nerlens Noel’s complete lack of an offensive game. But had Kentucky rallied to win, we’d instead be talking about all the little things Noel did to help his team win on Saturday. Noel had 16 rebounds and 6 steals in Kentucky’s loss, and Kentucky needed those defensive stops in a game where they shot so poorly. Watching so many freshmen play prominent roles made me want to do a quick update of how all the top recruits have fared this season. Here is a summary of the RSCI Top 80.  * = injured or ineligible for part of the season

Kentucky has had a problem with rebounding this year, but don’t blame Nerlens Noel. He needs some help from Willie-Cauley Stein and Kyle Wiltjer who are very poor defensive rebounders for their size.

If Kaleb Tarczewski and Steven Adams aren’t earning major minutes at this point in the season, it is hard to envisioning them becoming full scale stars later. When conference play rolls around, coaches tend to be less patient with their freshmen. Thus in many ways, percentage of minutes can be the most important stat this time of year.

Efficiency is also important, and Kyle Anderson’s 87.9 ORtg is terrible for an elite recruit. Point guards can struggle more than other players to adapt to the college game and Anderson was considered to have point guard skills out of high school. So perhaps Anderson’s struggles aren’t a complete surprise. On the other hand, Archie Goodwin and Marcus Smart weren’t really point guards in high school and they have adapted to the position. Goodwin’s turnover numbers are far too high, but he’s set up his teammates passably while setting up his own shot a lot. And Marcus Smart has made a tremendous transition to playing the point-guard position at the college level. Smart’s assist rate is much better than many players regarded as better passers out of high school.

I really think the problem with Anderson is that Ben Howland hasn’t figured out how to use him. Lots of coaches from Rick Pitino to John Thompson III have been able to feature great lanky passers, by positioning them at the high post and letting them see the whole floor. Anderson still has the potential to be that type of player, even if he has struggled early.

Grant Jerrett and Sam Dekker are the only players in the Top 20 who are not starting. Ricardo Ledo is ineligible. And Kris Dunn and Gary Harris are injured.

We start to see the typical drop-off when we get to recruits in the 11-20 range. DaJuan Coleman still has the profile of a player who will be a star in a future season, but right now he is having trouble earning playing time behind other quality big men on Syracuse’s roster. Meanwhile Cameron Ridley has been extremely disappointing for Texas. Certainly it hurts not to have Myck Kabongo eligible, but Kabongo’s absence doesn’t explain why a player like Ridley can be so passive against a team like Chaminade as he was in the Maui Invitational loss. The only good thing I can say about Ridley is that he has 19 blocks already, which is more than any other player in the Top 50 except Nerlens Noel.

Only Rasheed Sulaimon has become an undisputed crunch time star for his team. And Sulaimon’s efficiency is even more impressive when you look at Duke’s strength of schedule so far. Rodney Purvis has also played major minutes, but he is deferring a lot to his teammates at this point.

Glenn Robinson has been shockingly efficient at this point in the season, well above many of his peers on this list. But none of the players listed here are going to quite be in the national player of the year discussion because they are starting to become more passive offensive players. (I.e. the percentage of possessions used is now often below 20%) Only Danuel House is using a large number of possessions at this point in the rankings, and House plays for a Houston team that is in the process of upgrading its talent level in anticipation of joining the Big East.

This preseason I wrote how Marcus Paige would have some growing pains and be inconsistent this year, and the response I got was that Roy Williams had a ton of confidence in Paige and that I was being un-necessarily pessimistic. So far, with an 87.7 ORtg, neither Paige nor the Tar Heels are off to a great start. Paige has better days ahead, but North Carolina is also going to have a few more baffling losses before the season is over.

I was worried that Yogi Ferrell could have a similar negative impact on the Hoosiers because freshmen are often inconsistent. But Ferrell has thrived because he has worked within the offense. Instead of hogging the ball and needing to create shots, Ferrell has let his teammates work their isolation stuff, and provided key drives and dishes when needed. Ferrell has been happy to fill a role on the Hoosiers, and he has been everything Indiana needed.

Finally, Tony Parker’s minutes this year have been a joke, but with Josh Smith transferring, Parker at least has a chance of cracking the UCLA rotation now.

Notice how often a lack of playing time plagues players at this point in the rankings. I expected and still expect big things out of Kansas’ Perry Ellis and Iowa’s Adam Woodbury, but their coaches have only given them a taste of playing time at this point. The result is that some guys at this point in the rankings become unmitigated gunners. Hey Indiana’s Jeremy Hollowell, no matter how good you think you are, when the game with North Carolina was close late in the first half, Indiana didn’t want you bombing threes. They wanted Jordan Hulls bombing threes.

Xavier has played much better than many of us anticipated this season, and freshman Semaj Christon deserves a lot of that credit. Christon has out-played point-guards like Marcus Paige and realistically he’s been much more important than even Yogi Ferrell given his role in the offense. Christon is using nearly 30% of his team’s possessions, scoring at a prolific clip, and setting up his teammates without a rash of turnovers.

Most of Christopher Opekpa’s stats are pretty pedestrian, but not his block rate. Opekpa has 35 blocks at this point in the season, easily out-distancing any of the other freshmen in today’s column.

Nik Stauskas has been unbelievably efficient at this point and he is playing major minutes to boot. Some people expected Michigan to be a Top 10 team, but did they really expect Stauskas to outperform his peer level players by this much? His efficiency is due in large part to his teammates, and his shot-selection. But his performance is still notable. Stauskas has the most threes of anyone mentioned in this column (18 made) beating even UCLA’s super-aggressive shooter Jordan Adams.

Also give Adams credit. He’s shooting 26% of the time while maintaining a solid ORtg. Kyle Anderson may have been the third rated recruit for UCLA, but Adams has actually played like one.

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Before I talk about Day 1 of the NCAA tournament, I have one preview item for Day 2. As a detailed reader of Monday’s column may have noted, Purdue is the most improved offensive team in the country in the last 10 games. The reason most people haven’t noticed is because Purdue’s defense went in the tank over the same time period. But in the next table I focus on the individual offensive numbers to see whose offense has changed the most:

One popular theory is that the removal of Kelsey Barlow has improved the offense. Barlow was kicked off the team and his minutes have now dropped to zero. But Barlow was not a black-hole offensively, and it isn’t clear that his removal should make that much of a difference.

Instead it looks like there are two contributing factors. First, Purdue has tightened a 9 player rotation down to 7 players. All are receiving substantially more playing time than early in the year. I would argue that Anthony Johnson should actually be receiving less time and that perhaps it should be a 6 player rotation. But obviously Matt Painter sees something in the defense and effort of the freshman Johnson. Overall this core group of 7 is building more chemistry.

Second, five of these players have seen their efficiency improve from the start of the year. That’s fairly impressive when you consider that the Big Ten schedule should be tougher than the non-conference schedule. Hummel is getting to the line a little more often, and as for the rest of the rotation, they are simply making more shots. Turnovers are also down.

Of course with this shorter rotation, players have been more hesitant to foul, the team is forcing fewer turnovers, and teams seem to be getting easier shots against Purdue. It is hard to play pressure defense with a short rotation, and unless Purdue gets a little more defensive effort against St. Mary’s, they will be done in the first round. Offensive improvement is great, but not if you cannot get stops.

Game Notes

Even on a day that lacks historic drama, there are always plenty of storylines in the NCAA tournament.

-There are the stories about player homecomings. Louisville’s Peyton Siva is from the Seattle area and the chance to play in Portland meant many of his family could drive to Thursday’s game. And while his playing time was limited due to foul trouble, Siva made the most of his time on the court scoring 17 points in 25 minutes. For much of the game, Davidson simply could not keep Siva out of the lane.

-There are the stories of high school teammates re-united. Southern Miss guard Neil Watson and Kansas St. guard Will Spradling played AAU ball together and had been friends since 8^th grade. They often guarded each other during Thursday’s game and while Watson got the upper hand with 16 points and 3 assists, Spradling’s Kansas St. team won the game.

-There are the stories of heartbreak. Long Beach St. senior Larry Anderson tried to return from a knee injury, but he was ineffective in limited minutes, and LBSU came up a few points short of upsetting New Mexico.

-There are the stories of redemption. Iowa St. has a team of players that didn’t fit in well elsewhere. Chris Allen was a problem at Michigan St., Royce White had off-the-court troubles at Minnesota, and even Scott Christopherson (the home-grown Cyclone on this team) once played for Marquette. All three were spectacular in the Cyclones win over defending champion UConn. Allen had 20 points, White had a double-double with 15 points and 13 boards, and Christopherson chipped in 15 points too. And when this group of cast-offs built a 36-14 first half lead on the defending champs, they were playing beautiful basketball.

-There are even the moments of glory for losing teams. Colorado St. may have lost to Murray St. to open the day, but millions of people across the country saw the 6’4” Pierce Hornung diving on the floor and grabbing 10 first half rebounds as the Rams led at halftime. South Dakota St., making the first NCAA tournament appearance in school history, gave Baylor an early scare with a 19-7 lead. And even UNLV gave its fans one last moment to cheer by trimming a 20 point deficit to 2 points in the final minutes against Colorado. Those teams may not have won, but at least there were a few highlights.

There were just two seeding upsets on Thursday (with VCU and Colorado winning). VCU’s upset was the most dramatic. VCU’s Bradford Burgess hit a three pointer late, VCU’s Darius Theus hit a runner in the lane, and then Wichita St.’s Garrett Stutz missed a game tying three at the buzzer. But it hardly felt surprising after VCU’s tournament run last year.

That meant the only real drama of the day came when top seeded Syracuse struggled to defeat UNC-Asheville. The game featured at least three controversial calls, the missed goaltend against Syracuse, the bizarre lane violation (that later proved to be the correct call), and the inbounds pass that bounced off a Syracuse player but was ruled Syracuse ball. Charles Barkley called the officiating a “travesty”, and for those hoping to see a 16-seed beat a 1-seed for the first time in NCAA history, it certainly felt that way. For most of the game, every time Syracuse went on a run, it seemed like UNC-Asheville had an answer. Near the 15 minute mark of the second half, Syracuse turned a pair of steals into the lead, only to see the Bulldogs take the lead back. Near the 9 minute mark, James Southerland hit a three pointer and Rakeem Christmas got a foul and one, but again UNC-Asheville answered. And it felt like the only reason UNC-Asheville could not answer at the end was because of those controversial calls.

Perhaps there was a little drama when Harvard pulled within 5 points against Vanderbilt. After losing in the first round in recent years, Commodore fans had at least one moment of panic. But the truth is, the real beauty of a day like Thursday isn’t the basketball games, it is the future match-ups. Because most of the top seeds advanced, that means we have an outstanding slate of games on Saturday.

Random Thoughts

-Bad Pun of the Day: Regarding the aforementioned Neil Watson, Len Elmore said “It’s elementary, Watson is getting it done.”

-West Virginia’s loss was tough, but not entirely unexpected. This team just relied too much on Truck Bryant and Kevin Jones, and when Bryant struggled this year, as he did on Thursday, WVU simply had no chance to win.

-For Indiana, more than Cody Zeller and Jordan Hulls’ points, I was extremely impressed with their active hands. They combined for nine steals and the two that Hulls got before half-time seemed critical to me. Those steals prevented New Mexico St. from entering the locker room with real momentum.

Expected Wins in the Field of 64

It is time to introduce a table that I will be showing on a nearly daily basis during the tournament. The table shows the expected wins for various teams (based on the Pomeroy rankings) and why these have changed each day. Expectations primarily change because a team wins or loses. See “Own”. But expectations can also change because a team’s potential future opponents change. See “Other”. Finally, expectations can change because of margin within the tournament. See “Marg”. Here are some examples. VCU beat Wichita St. which substantially improved their “Own” expected number of wins. But Indiana also advanced (instead of New Mexico St.) and that “Other” game hurt VCU’s expected wins. Meanwhile Syracuse struggled to beat UNC-Asheville while Wisconsin crushed Montana so the Badgers see their “Marg” improve.

-If you study this table (and the next table) carefully, the first thing you might notice is that Pomeroy’s expected champ at the start of Monday was Kentucky, but at the start of Thursday, it was Ohio St. Because the SEC struggled in the NIT and the Big Ten did well in the NIT, Ohio St. actually passed Kentucky for first place in Pomeroy’s rankings during the week.

-The second thing you should note is that VCU picked up the most impressive victory. Beating Wichita St. not only gave them a win, it also gave them some option value for future wins in the tournament. In the table below, Kentucky’s win was mostly expected. After beating Western Kentucky, Kentucky’s expected number of wins in the tournament barely changed.

-In the “Other” column, Indiana got the biggest benefit from Wichita St. going down, but Kentucky also got a slight benefit as well.

-The Big Ten (Ohio St., Indiana, Wisconsin) all won by impressive margins and that makes Michigan St. look better without even playing.  See “Marg”.

-Wichita St. and UNLV lost and gave away plenty of value to the rest of the field. See “Own.”

-Syracuse saw both Wisconsin and Vanderbilt advance meaning the Orange are guaranteed to face a strong team in the Sweet Sixteen. See “Other.”

-Syracuse had a disappointing margin of victory against UNC-Asheville, but Kentucky had a disappointing margin against Western Kentucky too. See “Marg.”

Because of the fast pace of both teams, BYU versus Iona has the potential to be one of the most entertaining First Four games of all-time. Also, I am salivating at seeing Missouri’s guards and Florida’s guards potentially clashing in the round of 32. But before I start breaking down the bracket, let’s throw a few quick stats at the wall:

Which Conferences Did the Best?

One thing I like to track during the NCAA tournament is whether conferences are exceeding expectations or falling short. One way to do that is to look at how seeds have performed from 1985 to 2011 and predict an expected number of wins for each conference.

(Note: In all tables I am only counting wins in the Round of 64 and beyond.)

Based on these seed expectations and the seeds received, the Big East should win the most games in the tournament, but the Big Ten is expected to win nearly as many games with three fewer teams.

We can also use this year’s margin-of-victory numbers to form an expectation. In the next table I use Ken Pomeroy’s predicted probabilities. Here we get a slightly different picture. His model expects the Big Ten to win the most games in the tournament, with the ACC earning far fewer wins than their high seeds would indicate:

Team-By-Team

2012 is the year of the clear favorite. It will be virtually impossible for any of the experts who follow college basketball not to pick Kentucky to win the national championship. In terms of the measured statistics like margin-of-victory, in terms of the NBA ready talent on the floor, in terms of 34 games on TV over four months, no one has come close to the Wildcats this season.

But more importantly, there are no clear alternatives to the Wildcats. Again using Ken Pomeroy’s formula, here are the expected wins for each team in the tournament this year:

Rather than showing one clear alternative, the numbers show a great deal of balance between the top seeds.

The Right Side of the Bracket (East and Midwest)

The margin-of-victory crowd is going to love Ohio St., but they might be the only ones. Despite bringing back one of the top post players in the country in Jared Sullinger, one of the top defenders in Aaron Craft, one of the most prolific two-guards in William Buford, and watching Deshaun Thomas emerge into a versatile scoring threat, Ohio St.’s offense has struggled at times this year. Ohio St. has simply not been able to replace the outside shooting of Jon Diebler. And by sharing the Big Ten title and falling to Michigan St. in the conference tournament, very few people are going to be in love with this team. Add in a potential Sweet Sixteen match-up with a Florida St. team that has two wins against Duke and two wins against North Carolina, and Ohio St. will get far less love than these numbers would suggest.

Syracuse is the more traditional favorite, but they are the worst defensive rebounding team in the field, and their offense can look stagnant when they aren’t forcing turnovers. Even a second round match-up against Kansas St. could be a nightmare for Syracuse. Kansas St.’s team is built to crash the glass, and if Angel Rodriguez can simply throw up jump shots (instead of turning the ball over at his normally high rate), Kansas St. might have a chance for an upset.

North Carolina is the choice for people who like NBA talent, but the ACC was so weak this year, the Tar Heels didn’t get their normal share of big games. And when they did play quality teams, they would usually be close. UNC would win 54-51 against Virginia or 69-67 against NC State. Certainly everyone says North Carolina has a lot of NBA ready talent on paper, but unlike Kentucky, it never felt like North Carolina was unbeatable. Ever since the big win over Michigan St. on an aircraft carrier to start the season, they rarely gave off that aura of invincibility. And with John Henson’s injury this weekend, there are additional doubts about the Tar Heels.

If you are scared away by Kentucky’s inexperience, you might like Kansas. The Jayhawks don’t have any amazing freshmen this year because the majority of their recruiting class was declared academically ineligible to start the season. That has left Kansas with a veteran lineup and Bill Self has clearly got the most out of every player on the floor. The once ridiculed Tyshawn Taylor has emerged as a polished superstar and Thomas Robinson emerged into quite possibly the best player in the country.

But when you look at this group of four teams (Syracuse, Ohio St., North Carolina, and Kansas) any honest evaluation would say that it truly is a toss-up. I would unquestionably pick these four teams for the regional finals on that half of the bracket, but I have no idea which of these teams will play in the national title game.

The Left Side of the Bracket (West)

On the other side of the bracket, it is hard not to love what Michigan St. has accomplished this year. But the Spartans got the worst possible second round draw. Memphis has been absolutely demolishing teams lately, winning their last seven games by 18 points or more. Michigan St. may be able to exploit Memphis’ lack of size in the paint better than any team in the nation, but they shouldn’t have to face such a dominant team in the second round. (Oh, and if St. Louis upsets Memphis, they have elite margin-of-victory numbers too.) So even if Michigan St. was a reasonable pick for a deep run based on their performance in the toughest conference in the country this year, the bracket makes the Spartans a very risky bet.

Instead many people will be drawn to the sentimental favorite Missouri. Don’t pick against the Tigers because of their lack of depth. They’ve played smart and avoided foul trouble all year. Don’t pick against the Tigers because of their lack of size. They’ve played bigger teams all year, and they’ve actually struggled more against smaller quicker teams. In fact, I would argue that picking against Missouri is the most unpleasant thing you could possibly do this year. With only 7 scholarship players, this group has developed a type of offensive chemistry that will help you rediscover a love for basketball.

I think part of what made the Missouri offense so good this year was the change of pace. Normally when a player goes to the NBA they realize that the game is much faster. But eventually the game slows down. Well, Missouri is having a slow-down moment. While Missouri still plays at an exceedingly fast-pace relative to most teams, it is much slower than what they played under Mike Anderson. Somehow the game is very calm and controlled for them, while remaining at a fever pitch for opponents.

Ricardo Ratliffe is the perfect example. Teams know that he shoots nearly 70% in the paint so they cannot afford to let him get paint touches, but somehow the Missouri guards are always cutting and using screens and finding a way to get him the ball in scoring position. And Ratliffe probably has the quickest release of any post player in college today. He rarely holds the ball and lets the defense react. He catches the ball and gets it up on the backboard immediately

Having said all that, I’m not in love with Missouri’s draw. Let me get to that:

First, I really like Florida over Virginia. A number of the experts say that Virginia likes to play a pack-line defense and force teams to shoot over the top. Well, Florida is not afraid to shoot over the top. But I actually think that is a little over-rated. Virginia has played the pack-line defense, but still been quick enough to get out on shooters. What concerns me more than anything is how poorly Virginia has played since Assane Sene has gone down. The defense just hasn’t been the same without the 7 footer in the middle, and he is not going to be back for the tournament.

And if Florida advances to face Missouri, that’s a dream match-up on paper. While Missouri has succeeded by playing four guards around Ricardo Ratliffe, that will allow Florida to play four guards around Patric Young. And while Kentucky has almost single-handedly convinced the country that Florida isn’t very good, realistically Florida is almost the mirror-image of Missouri. Missouri might be the favorite, but that game would be very close to a toss-up.

And if Missouri faces Marquette in the Sweet Sixteen, Marquette is another team that has the quickness to stay with Missouri. Plus Buzz Williams clearly takes his scouting to another level in the NCAA tournament. Facing his team after a four day break would be a nightmare.

The Left Side of the Bracket (South)

Duke drew the short straw getting placed in the same region as Kentucky. And the Blue Devils were also clearly the least dominant of the 1 and 2 seeds during the regular season. Give Mike Krzyzewski credit for putting together the right non-conference schedule that got Duke the quality wins they need to be a 2-seed, but even the usually Duke-loving Dick Vitale has said that this is not a vintage Duke team. When Vitale says the Blue Devils might lose in the second round of the tournament, you know they have flaws. Now is probably a good time for me to show another Expected Win chart:

Baylor will be the clear pick to upset Duke for some people based on the large amount of NBA talent on their roster. But as an NBA-centered team, they remind me a lot of recent Texas teams under Rick Barnes. Somehow showing off their game for NBA scouts is more important than winning. Baylor proved some skeptics wrong by beating Kansas in the Big 12 tournament, but if Missouri will make you love college basketball, cheering for Baylor will absolutely drive you nuts. You almost have to beg for Perry Jones III to get a post touch, and while Brady Heslip is a great sharp-shooter, he doesn’t seem to have any feel for when to take threes and when to work the offense.

Dark Horses

- I’ve already written at length about how Wisconsin’s numbers are inflated based on crushing a bunch of small teams early in the season. But I do believe the Badgers are dangerous. My main concern with picking them is that at their slow pace, they open up the door to losing any game. Montana is clearly not in Wisconsin’s league, but in a 58 possession game, against a solid Montana defense, the game will probably be close.

- Wichita St. is the most dominant MVC team since Ken Pomeroy began tracking stats, and they have the kind of 7-foot center in Garrett Stutz that a lot of mid-major teams do not. That is why Seth Davis was professing his love for this team on CBS.

- Vanderbilt absolutely has the talent at every position to beat any team in the country. And they should long savor their win over Kentucky in the SEC final. But the main complaint is that the Commodores have failed to play well against weaker teams. With basically the same lineup they’ve lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament in previous years, and they had many games this season where they struggled with weaker opponents. Sure, I’ll believe you if you say they can beat Syracuse. But can they even get to that game?

- Finally, Florida St. is the team that a lot of people are going to be picking based on the ACC tournament title. But again, they have a potential nightmare match-up if they face Cincinnati. The Bearcats are one of the best teams in the country at forcing steals and Florida St.’s biggest weakness is holding on to the ball. Sure, they might be able to beat Ohio St. But can they even get to that game?

Here are more expected wins in the round of 64 and beyond:

- In case it wasn’t clear how terrible the draw is for Memphis and St. Louis. Memphis has the 9th best Pomeroy ranking, but is 22nd in expected wins. St. Louis had the 15th best Pomeroy ranking, but is 39th in expected wins.

- Southern Miss has some of the worst margin-of-victory stats in the field. Don’t pick them to upset Kansas St.

And here is the last of the list:

Parting Thoughts

- Seth Davis said it well at the end of the selection special, the NCAA committee sent a message that non-conference strength-of-schedule matters. That’s why Iona got in ahead of Drexel. And that’s why Missouri was not a #1 seed. A lot of people will argue with that message. What does non-conference strength-of-schedule have to do with evaluating the quality of a team? Isn’t the goal to pick the best teams? But I’ve been watching this show for 20 years, and the committee has always had this emphasis. They want to incentivize teams to play big games early in the season, and whether it is an explicit criteria or not, it is a criteria.

- I still can’t believe Kevin Harlan weaved in a comment about Peyton Manning during the Arizona vs Colorado Pac-12 final. (Yes, Manning probably won’t be choosing between Denver and Arizona based on the outcome of that game.)

- Finally, only Bob Knight could manage to eat an ice cream cone while calling a college basketball game.