Gonzaga led 58 to 51 and then the baskets started falling. In Doug Gottlieb’s words, “Wap, Wap, Wap!”

-Tekele Cotton Three Pointer

-Cleanthony Early Three Pointer

-Ron Baker Three Pointer

-Carl Hall Jumper

-Ron Baker Free Throws

-Ron Baker Three Pointer

-And then, with the shot-clock down to one and Fred Vanvleet fumbling the ball, the shot of the tournament, another three. Wap!

19 points in 7 possessions

In 14 years, Mark Few has won 12 WCC titles at Gonzaga. But in 14 years, Mark Few has never made it to the Elite Eight. You can say all you want about how this is bad coaching. If Mark Few really had Gonzaga playing great basketball, they would have led by more than seven points late in the game. If Mark Few’s teams really played elite defense, Gonzaga wouldn’t give up runs like this.

But really that is all hyperbole. How do you make sure four separate guys don’t get hot from the perimeter in a short-stretch. What coaching adjustment are you supposed to make? 19 points in four minutes and 34 seconds. Sometimes, even for the best coaches in the world, basketball isn’t fair.

Meanwhile, if Gregg Marshall isn’t coaching in a Power Conference next season, he’s making $1.75 million at Wichita St. His NCAA tournament appearances at Winthrop, rebuilding a winner at Wichita St., and exceeding expectations in the tournament make him the hottest coaching prospect not named Shaka Smart. (I honestly don’t see Brad Stevens leaving Butler, especially with Butler headed to the new Big East.)

Re-Match

Brad Stevens has seemingly had a lucky horseshoe in his pocket the last few years. A lot of that is planning and preparation, but his fortune in close games has been too good to be true. There was Butler’s last-second lay-up win against Pittsburgh in the NCAA tournament a few years ago; there was the former walk-on hitting a floater to beat Indiana in OT this season; there was the possible shove, steal, and miracle basket against Gonzaga. And oh-by-the-way, there was that buzzer-beating three pointer to beat Marquette in the Maui Invitational to open the season.

Execution absolutely has a lot to do with it. And even down four with five seconds left, Butler executed enough to give itself a chance to win. Butler pulled off a beautiful full-court pass to Andrew Smith whose (goaltended) basket cut the lead to two. And there was the great inbounds defense that forced a turnover and gave Butler a chance for the win in regulation. But finally, even with good execution, the percentages finally caught up to Brad Stevens. Rotnei Clarke was used as a diversion, and Andrew Smith a capable if not elite three point shooter (read 29%) caught the ball at the top of the key. He should have had the size to get up a clean look. But instead he tripped over his own feet. And Butler’s chance at a miracle three pointer came up short.

A Double Digit Seed to the Sweet 16

I absolutely believe Oregon was under-seed in this tournament and they were better than a 12-seed. But the talk about how Oregon is a different team with Dominic Artis in the lineup has to stop. Artis was 0-for-7 with one assist and one turnover on Saturday, and this follows up a string of recent games where Artis has posted ORtgs of 47, 48, 81, and 34.

This isn’t a team that we vastly overlooked in the regular season. Rather, this is a team that lost its last two regular season games and blew a chance to share the Pac-12 title. What they have done in the Pac-12 tournament and NCAA tournament is simply start playing better basketball.

It was Damyean Dotson on Saturday who provided the surprise boost for the Ducks. St. Louis does a fantastic job at denying three-point opportunities. Much like Duke, they do everything possible to stop teams from even attempting shots on the perimeter. But somehow Dotson got open on Saturday and the freshman 31 percent three-point shooter made five of six three-pointers. Meanwhile, the Ducks as a team made 8 of 11 from deep. And that surprise outside shooting made a normally stout St. Louis defense look suspect. A team that had not lost in regulation since January 12th, and that many of us felt could handle Louisville’s pressure in the Sweet Sixteen, was blown out of the water.

Elsewhere

The rest of the games were all relatively easy wins by the favored seeds. I was amused at the CBS graphic that said “Lost Shoes” and listed one apiece in the Michigan St. vs Memphis game. I am nervous that Michigan St.’s Keith Appling injured his shoulder. But mostly in the other games, I was just sad to see another crop of seniors go out.

I hope Memphis forward DJ Stephens isn’t too upset to see his career come to an end with a 1-for-7 performance. Because even in defeat he showed plenty of grit. Whether it was his blocked shot in the first half that seemed to temporarily change Michigan St.’s inside attack, his hustle to knock a ball out from behind, or simply the play at the seven-minute mark of the first half where Stephens dove horizontally to keep a possession alive for his team, Stephens was worth the price of admission. And in my opinion he has absolutely done enough to get invited to the NBA summer league this season. He is under-sized and has no plausible NBA position. But someone needs to evaluate his raw athleticism against the other top prospects. And for a former 0-star recruit with asthma, his senior year highlight reel of dunks and blocks reminded us all why we love college basketball.

Finally, I hope Saturday’s game reminded Shaka Smart that he isn’t done learning yet. Smart seems to be a young Rick Pitino, a master of the full-court pressure, and a master motivator of his program. But one of the key lessons Pitino has learned over the years is that you can’t press every team. Sometimes you encounter teams with brilliant guard play and outstanding passing, and the only right call is to play tough-nosed half-court defense. Until Smart learns to better adapt to his opponents, he won’t quite be able to reach elite status. He isn’t quite there yet, but I think someday Smart will reach that point.

Expected Wins in Round of 64

As I have done throughout this tournament, I am tracking the expected wins in the Round of 64, according to the Pomeroy Rankings. Saturday saw more losers than winners as more of the favored seeds advanced.

As a reminder of how to interpret this table, Wichita St.’s win over Gonzaga increased the shockers expected wins in this tournament by a full 1.34 games. But since it was more of a mismatch, Arizona’s win over Harvard only increased Arizona’s expected wins by 0.38. (See own game.)

The margin of games also matters as well as other results in the tournament. Thanks to a dominating performance, Michigan added another 0.13 to their expected wins in the tournament. And thanks to Gonzaga losing, Mississippi and La Salle saw their odds of advancing improve as well. (See Other.)

With Michigan St. advancing, Duke’s expected wins fell slightly. Similarly, the fact that Michigan won in such dominating fashion lowered the Kansas expectations slightly.

Parity is the big storyline headed into the NCAA Tournament, as there doesn’t appear to be a team capable of lapping the field like North Carolina in 2009 or Kentucky in 2012. But while it's hard to argue now that last season’s Wildcats (38-2 with six players drafted) weren’t a great team, there was plenty of parity talk as it happened. On some level, the whole conversation is just an exercise in thinly-disguised nostalgia, another in an endless series of complaints from Baby Boomers about how great things were in their day. It’s hard to get a read on who will be cutting down the nets in Atlanta, but that’s not as big a deal as many would have you believe.

None of the top teams have separated themselves from the pack this season, in part because there are some striking similarities within the Top 10. Just like in the NBA, floor spacing has become the name of the game at the top of the NCAA. Nine of the top 12 seeds start a three-point shooter in their frontcourt, whether it’s a small forward shifted down a position or a “stretch 4”, a category of player that didn’t exist a generation ago. There’s an underlying principle behind what many of the best coaches in college basketball are doing: get as much shooting on the floor as possible without compromising your defense and rebounding.

Indiana has Christian Watford, Gonzaga has Kelly Olynyk, Miami has Kenny Kadji, New Mexico has Alex Kirk and Florida has Erik Murphy. Duke lost in the first round last season without Ryan Kelly (“The White Raven”) and they were a completely different team this year when he was injured. A year after Ohio State started Jared Sullinger at the 4, they’ve replaced him with DeShaun Thomas, a 6’7 225 small forward. Michigan State has Adreian Payne, the most intriguing of the bunch because he’s also an athletic 6’10 240 center capable of protecting the rim and controlling the paint.

The Blue Devils' struggles without Kelly are a good example of the importance of the position. Kelly, at 6’11 230, is a dead-eye shooter who takes four 3’s a game and knocks them down at a preposterous 49% clip. He makes nearly every open shot he gets and his high release point means he needs very little space, if any, to be open. As a result, Kelly's defender has to hug him along the three-point line, creating space for the other Duke players. Mason Plumlee, an athletic 6’11 235 center with a fairly mechanical post game, looked like a Wooden Award candidate when Kelly was playing. Without the space that Kelly provided him, he went back to being a role player.

Space is the most important thing that a modern player needs. Since the top players are bigger and more athletic than they were a generation ago, there is less room on the floor to operate than there used to be. At the same time, most players don’t come into college with the ability or patience to run a halfcourt offense. The AAU game is mostly up-and-down transition action, with rosters put together and taken apart in the span of a weekend. As the Miami Heat are showing this season, continuity takes years to develop, years that most college coaches no longer have.

Increasing the amount of space on the floor is a way to short-circuit that. A pick-and-roll with three shooters spotting up doesn't require a complicated decision-making process. The guard makes a basic read -- take the shot or hit the roll man -- and then looks for the only possible defensive counter -- sending a help-side defender from the three-point line. Florida, a program which hasn’t exactly been known for halfcourt execution, has used that design to great effect this season. Scottie Wilbekin and Patric Young play a two-man game and Murphy, Mike Rosario and Kenny Boynton spot up off of it. The only real defense for it is to have superior athletes, one reason why the Gators, a team with really good athletes, have a 26-7 record.

Without great spacing, defenses can pack the paint and dare the offense to shoot over the top of it. That’s the problem UNC had for most of the season, since neither James McAdoo nor any of their three freshmen centers can stretch the floor. After an embarrassing 87-61 loss to Miami that dropped them to 16-7, Roy Williams turned around their season by going small, moving McAdoo to the 5 and starting four perimeter players. They are 9-3 since the move, with their only losses coming to Duke and Miami. It wouldn’t have worked without two McDonald’s All-American wings (Reggie Bullock and P.J. Hairston) who have the athleticism to defend bigger players, but having the more talented players is why you coach at UNC in the first place.

There are other ways to work around the floor spacing problem, but they generally come with problems of their own. Louisville doesn’t have a frontcourt shooter because Rick Pitino likes to play an aggressive trapping defense that forces turnovers and gets the Cardinals out into the open court. The issue for Pitino’s teams is they eventually run into a disciplined team they can’t speed up and who keep them in the halfcourt, where the questionable decision-making of guys like Russ Smith becomes an issue. Georgetown runs the Princeton offense and Kansas plays a lot of high-low with two big men, but they’ve both lost to far inferior teams this season when their halfcourt offense stagnated.

My guess is that whoever ends up winning the Tournament will be able to space the floor from their frontcourt. That, of course, doesn’t really narrow it down all that much. Almost all of the best college teams maintain NBA-level spacing, a good indication of where the sport is going. A generation ago, almost no big man had a perimeter shot. These days, not being able to space the floor is a significant negative for a player, regardless of the position he plays. Four of the six players in this season’s Three-Point Shootout -- Paul George, Steve Novak, Ryan Anderson and Matt Bonner -- were 6’9+. The era of the stretch 4 is upon us; March Madness is just the latest example.

Follow @JonathanTjarks

Inconsistency can be a good thing. Illinois is a borderline NCAA tournament team this year. But thanks to the peaks of their inconsistency, the Fighting Illini won the Maui invitational, won at Butler, and beat the top ranked Hoosiers. Sure, the Illini were blown out by 20 at home by Northwestern, but the season wouldn’t have nearly been as fun if the Northwestern and Indiana victories were flipped.

On the flip side, if your team is a national title contender, inconsistency is a bad thing. If you want to win six games in the NCAA tournament, you cannot afford to have lapses every few games. In the next table, I attempt to determine which teams are most likely to have those lapses.

I take the teams in the Top 16 of the Pomeroy Rankings and figure out how often they look beatable on the basketball court. Determining a cut-off for beatable is somewhat hard, but I decided to count any game where the team’s game-specific Pythagorean Rating would be less than 0.9000. (Pythagorean Rating adjusts for opponent and venue as on kenpom.com.) 

This cut-off is quite different from counting losses. A team doesn’t have to lose to have a bad game. Miami’s two-point win at Clemson and one-point win at Boston College were bad games even though the Hurricanes ultimately prevailed. Those games showed Miami was beatable, even when at full strength. Similarly, Michigan St.’s three-point home win against Louisiana-Lafayette was one of the worst performances of the season by an elite team, even if the Spartans were victorious.

On the flip side, by using the 0.9000 cutoff, a few losses will not be counted as bad performances. Michigan lost by three at Ohio St. and in overtime at Wisconsin, but neither of those count as bad games. Florida lost by one point at Arizona and Georgetown lost in OT to Indiana, but those do not count as bad games either.

One thing I noticed is that a lot of games against teams ranked 300+ in the rankings looked like bad performances. Even if you beat a team ranked 300+ by 20 points, that doesn’t look like a dominant game because everyone beats those teams by 20 points. But I don’t think a 20-point win should ever count against a team, so I’m throwing those games out. The table only includes games against teams ranked 1-300 in the Pomeroy Rankings.

Surprisingly, this metric paints a different picture than the Pomeroy rankings. While Indiana and Louisville have had disappointing moments this season, the truth is that both teams rarely look beatable. Indiana and Louisville have only played poorly about 15 percent of the time this year. Conversely, Kansas has looked beatable 43 percent of the time. And while Michigan St. has played better in-conference, the Spartans were simply pedestrian throughout the non-conference schedule. 

Next, I wanted to look for the common-denominator in these bad performances.  This can be different from an overall weakness. For example, Florida’s overall weakness is getting to the free throw line. But that does not explain what happens when the Gators play poorly. When the Gators play poorly the problem is that the defense isn’t playing at an elite level. In the five games listed above, the Gator’s opponents have an eFG% of 52 percent compared to 41 percent during the rest of the season. 

When Teams Play Poorly 

Indiana: The Hoosiers struggle most in slow-paced games where their opponents avoid turnovers. Presumably, the Hoosiers do not want to see a team like Notre Dame running the burn offense in their bracket. The Hoosiers have been nearly identical on offense in their good and bad games. But forcing turnovers is key to their defensive success, and when they don’t force turnovers, the Hoosiers are beatable.

Louisville: The 0.9000 cutoff is a little generous for Louisville. Both the Syracuse and Georgetown losses do not count as bad games. If we raised the cutoff to 0.9100, Louisville would actually have two more bad games on their ledger. Still, I think Louisville’s bad performances are illuminating. In the team’s four worst performances on the season (the loss to Villanova, a home squeaker against Kentucky, a home squeaker against Illinois St., and the loss to Notre Dame), Russ Smith has struggled to make good decisions with the basketball. Louisville needs Russ Smith to play well to win. Louisville also plays poorly when a lot of fouls are called in the game and they cannot force clean turnovers.

Michigan: If Russ Smith is an indicator of whether Louisville will win or lose, Tim Hardaway Jr. is equally important for Michigan. Hardaway had an ORtg of 19 in the team’s loss at Michigan St., an ORtg of 68 at Bradley, and an ORtg of 73 vs Penn St. The other issue for the Wolverines is offensive rebounds. Michigan is not a great offensive rebounding team, but in the Wolverines worst offensive games, they’ve seen their offensive rebounding percentage plummet from 34% to 26%. Finally, Michigan’s biggest strength is avoiding fouls, but against a team like Wisconsin, that doesn’t need to get to the free throw line to score, that asset was less valuable. Mid-majors like Creighton or South Dakota St. could be a nightmare for Michigan, because both teams can score without needing to get to the free throw line, and both teams do a solid job on the defensive glass.

Florida: When the Gators play poorly, it is usually about shooting. They shoot worse and their opponents shoot better. That’s a little hard to predict, but one thing to keep in mind, Florida does seem to do better when the pace is in the 50s. Missouri and Arkansas had success against Florida by upping the tempo. But this isn’t all about turnovers. Florida played poorly against Kansas St. in a game where they didn’t turn the ball over much at all. I think a team like Memphis that can push the ball up and down and attack before the Florida defense gets set, might be the true kryptonite for the Gators.

Duke: Duke’s five worst performances have come since Ryan Kelly went down. But before we get too excited about his return, remember that not all players return from injury and dominate. Mike Moser is still getting back into shape for UNLV, and we cannot guarantee that Ryan Kelly will return Duke to early season form. For Duke, throwing off the pace also seems like a big deal. They struggled in a very slow game at Boston College, and in very high-paced games at Maryland and Miami FL. With Kelly out and Seth Curry playing through an injury, I don’t think Duke wants to play high possession games quite like in past seasons.

Syracuse: Syracuse’s weaknesses are the typical ones with a zone defense. If a team has a forward who can dominate from the high post (see Davante Gardner), that team can carve up Syracuse. And as is typical with the zone, when Syracuse doesn’t grab defensive rebounds, the Orange do not play well. Syracuse struggled with defensive rebounding in narrow wins over Cincinnati and Detroit and losses to Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, and Temple. A strong offensive rebounding team like Colorado St. or Minnesota is presumably Syracuse’s worst nightmare. This year, without depth on the perimeter, Brandon Triche is also a concern. Triche isn’t a perfect predictor of Syracuse’s poor play (he did play well against Temple and Villanova), but when Triche is struggling, Syracuse also typically struggles. Finally, Syracuse struggles in slow-paced games this year. Because they are not a great half-court team, Syracuse needs transition opportunities to play well.

Pittsburgh: When Pittsburgh plays poorly, it is usually about the offense not working. Their adjusted offense is 123.1 in their good games and 104.9 in their bad games. Teams that have perimeter depth and can keep Tray Woodall, James Robinson, and Lamar Patterson out of the lane are Pittsburgh’s biggest problem. Guard-oriented teams from Rutgers to Cincinnati to Marquette to Michigan have been able to do that.

Arizona: The Wildcats might win the Pac-12, but seven of Arizona’s eight bad performances have come in conference play, so I am worried that this team is not peaking. Arizona is a team that really relies on getting to the free throw line, and teams that avoid fouls can be Arizona’s kryptonite. In the tournament, Arizona does not want to see a team that can defend well without fouling. Whether it would be a team with size (like Maryland) or just good fundamentals (like Wisconsin), there are a lot of teams that fit this profile.

Gonzaga: Gonzaga hasn’t been challenged much lately, so it is hard to find a stat that really does the job, but I’m going to focus on defensive rebounding. Since Gonzaga does not have a great eFG% defense, they cannot afford to give up second chance points. Teams like San Diego and Santa Clara hung with the Zags in conference play by crashing the glass. In most games Gonzaga grabs 72% of the defensive boards, but that percentage has dipped to 66% in their worst games. Gonzaga’s defensive rebounding also nearly cost them the game against Washington St. Gonzaga’s defense also has trouble containing great point-guards, but there are not enough of those in the WCC to really prove the point.

Ohio St.: Ohio St. has been Jekyll and Hyde defensively this year. In the 16 good games, the adjusted defensive efficiency has been 83.3. But in the team’s 9 worst performances on the year, the adjusted defense has only been 97.9. It seems like the Buckeyes have struggled more with perimeter-oriented-teams. Northwestern, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Illinois have all made the Buckeye defense look porous this year by shooting lights out. But you have to blame the Ohio St. offense a little too. When the team falls behind, because the offense isn’t good enough to score points in bunches, they have to take more chances defensively. And those gambles have led to some ugly final margins. Really, I wish someone could explain why Ohio St.’s defense is so bad in some games, because I really believe defense is Ohio St.’s strength.

Georgetown: Georgetown’s worst games have come at a slow pace against mediocre teams. See Liberty, Towson, and South Florida. They also usually involved a horrible offensive performance by the team, but that has been changing. Only one of the Hoyas bad performances has come in February, the narrow win at Rutgers.

Miami: Miami should probably be a little higher on this list, because some of the worst performances (like the Florida Gulf Coast game) came with personnel missing. Still, I think it is revealing that four of Miami’s worst performances have come in February. Miami may only have one ACC loss, but that doesn’t mean they have been dominant every time out. Much like Georgetown, Miami has struggled against some bad teams (Boston College, Wake Forest).

Kansas: Kansas has looked like an average team remarkably often this season. When the offense isn’t working, turnovers are almost always to blame. Kansas has to feed Ben McLemore and Jeff Withey to score consistently, and teams that can take the ball away on entry passes are potentially a big problem for the Jayhawks. A team like Robert Morris could be a nightmare first round opponent, given the Colonials ability to create turnovers. This is especially true given that Kansas has struggled against mediocre teams this year from Chattanooga to TCU.

Oklahoma St.: Oklahoma St. is not a great shooting team, particularly from the perimeter. So they need offensive rebounds and free throws to compete. Baylor and Virginia Tech avoided fouls and beat the Cowboys. Kansas St. crashed the defensive glass and did the same thing.

Michigan St: While most of the Spartans mediocre performances came in the non-conference schedule, the Spartans have struggled to put away Penn St. and Nebraska in conference play too. The story for Michigan St. always seems to be about turnovers, good or bad. When the Spartans force them, they win. When the Spartans give the ball away, they look bad.

Wisconsin: Wisconsin has seven games where they were completely dominant. In the blowout wins over Ohio St., Northwestern, Illinois, Cornell, California, and Southeastern Louisiana, and the big time win at Indiana the Badgers had a Pythagorean winning percentage above 0.9900. But over the rest of the schedule the Badgers have been remarkably pedestrian. As the numbers listed above show, Wisconsin has looked beatable on 14 occasions. It usually comes down to shooting. In Wisconsin’s 11 best games of the year, they have an eFG% of 54%. In the 14 games where they were beatable, the Badgers eFG% has only been 44%. Even if Wisconsin has snuck back into the Top 10 of Sagarin’s Predictor and Pomeroy’s rankings, with that kind of offensive inconsistency, they do not look like a Final Four team.