Adapting To Injury

Florida St. continues to adapt to the loss of star forward Chris Singleton.  After a rough loss at Maryland earlier in the week, Florida St. jumped out early against Miami on Saturday.  Florida St. led 16-2 early, 36-16 at halftime, and 56-37 with seven minutes left.  The key to replacing the team’s star forward was some hot shooting by the guards.  Florida St. started out 4 for 4 from downtown and made 8 of 14 threes in the game.

Leonard Hamilton is clearly not that confident in any of his choices at forward, and the team seems more likely to go small without Singleton.  But forward Okaro White may be emerging as a reliable option inside.  White saw his most minutes of the season on Saturday scoring 17 points on 6-11 shooting.  White’s development may be key, but his defense is certainly not up to the level of Singleton.  He had just one steal and no blocks despite playing most of the game, while Singleton usually dominates those categories.  And a defensive sag in the second half allowed Miami to pull within 62-59 in the final minute.  But Florida St. held on and avoided what would have been a devastating home loss.

If the story for Florida St. is the guards filling in for a missing forward, the story for Georgetown might be the forwards filling in for a missing guard.  With Chris Wright injured, backup point guard Markel Starks played extended minutes, but the big adjustments were in the paint.  Hollis Thompson played substantial minutes at the wing (and struggled mightily).  And the forward rotation was reduced from four players to three players.

That meant center Julian Vaughn and center Henry Sims played at the same time during parts of Saturday’s game.  (Vaughn and Sims usually sub for one another and have rarely played together this season.)  But it was forward Nate Lubick who played the biggest.  Lubick had one of the biggest offensive rebounds of the season to give Georgetown one of its only leads of the game, halfway through the second stanza.  Sims also played fine.  Sims has substantially improved his assist rate from last season (from 6% to 16%) and while that has tapered off lately, he again showed some beautiful passing in the middle of the Syracuse zone.  But if Georgetown is going to win without Wright, everyone needs to finish around the basket.  And in the last two games, Julian Vaughn has struggled to finish inside.  He followed a 1-9 day against Cincinnati with an 0-3 day against Syracuse.  Vaughn has clearly improved his post moves over last season, but he has been a non-factor offensively in the last two games.  If Georgetown is going to play a bigger lineup without Chris Wright, (with Hollis Thompson at the wing and Julian Vaughn playing more minutes inside), the Hoyas cannot afford to have both forwards play so poorly.

Duke Falls

To me, Duke is not a very interesting team.  The Blue Devils have veteran guards and bring a consistent high level of play every night out.  Only an elite defensive team really has a chance to beat the Blue Devils as we saw in losses to Florida St. and Virginia Tech.  Against weaker defenses, Duke exposes a weakness and then exploits it.

Seth Curry streaky pay is worth watching, but whether he emerges or has a bad day, it gets written about ad nauseam.  Really, the only Duke player who interests me is Mason Plumlee.  That is because you never know what you are going to get out of the Duke forward.  Out of regular rotation players, he is the least efficient offensive option and the team’s best rebounder.  But he always finds a way to surprise me.  Let’s look at his sequence from the end of the loss at Virginia Tech:

First, after Virginia Tech has finally taken the lead, Plumlee came out of nowhere to block a shot, but he was called for a goaltending violation that built Virginia Tech’s lead to four.  Then, just when it looked like Virginia Tech was going to seal the victory up five with the ball, Plumlee made a gigantic steal and converted the dunk on the other end to make it a one possession game.  Then after Nolan Smith, an 82% free throw shooter missed the front end of a one-and-one, Plumlee was the only one paying attention and he snuck in for an offensive board.  And of course, despite people missing free throws like crazy, the 41% free throw shooter was the only player to calmly make a free throw in that late game sequence.

Plumlee has become much more consistent as the season has worn on, but I still never really know what to expect.  He once scored 25 key points in a close win at Marquette, but he was also a non-factor in the loss at St. John’s at the Garden.  And for all the talk about how guards win in the tournament, and how Duke has great guards, I think the way you win in the tournament is by having balance.  You need contributions from everyone to win the NCAA title.  Plumlee is the uncertain link, but really so was Zoubek, even heading into the tournament last year.  And watching Plumlee fight hard, even in a loss, gives me reason to believe in the Blue Devils.  If the uncertain link in the rotation can give that much effort, the NCAA tournament possibilities remain bright.

As for Virginia Tech, this seems like a monumental win, but they always had it in them.  The Hokies were a preseason top three ACC team, and that’s the type of team that should beat Duke at home.  They played great defense in this game (as they always do under Seth Greenberg), made a late run, and presumably punched their ticket to the NCAA tournament.

Nebraska Falls

Nebraska’s Lance Jeter is a poor man’s Talor Battle.  The senior leads his team in minutes, takes roughly the highest volume of shots on the floor, and posts a very solid efficiency on a team of non-scorers.  He is a worse shooter than Battle, but he gets to the line more often, and he has a slightly higher assist rate.  And late against Iowa St., he did everything he could to win the game.  Jeter converted a late basket and one, and then he hit the game tying three pointer with 3.4 seconds left in regulation.

But twice late in the game, Jeter found Jorge Brian Diaz under the basket and Diaz fumbled the ball.  And those missed lay-up opportunities were the difference.  Nebraska lost to last place Iowa state by one point in OT.  Nebraska still has an NCAA tournament shot, but after the high of beating Texas last week, a loss to last place Iowa St. hurts.

Some Days the Only Stat that Matters is Three-Point Shooting

Sometimes the key to turning a season around is simple.  Shoot better.  Last year Jacob Pullen was one of the best shooters in the country, making 110 threes, and shooting 40% from deep.  This season, without guard Denis Clemente setting him up, Pullen has struggled.  Prior to the win over Kansas he was shooting just 33% from deep with only 46 made threes on the year.  But playing the Jayhawks lit a fire under Pullen, and he has made 65% or 15 of 23 from deep over the last four games.  Not surprisingly Kansas St. has won four in a row.  And a team that looked like they might fall to 4-7 a few weeks ago when hosting Kansas, is now 8-6 and firmly in the NCAA discussion.

Meanwhile Michigan made its first six threes of the game at Minnesota in pulling off the Wolverine’s biggest road victory of the season.  A late three by Zack Novak, Michigan’s 12^th three of the game, was the dagger.  Despite the heart-breaking loss to Wisconsin on a banked shot early in the week, Michigan is really starting to feel like an NCAA team.  The Wolverines have won 7 of their last 10, and the losses were at Ohio St., by 2 at Illinois, and by 1 vs Wisconsin.  And Michigan swept the season series against Penn St. which may make a difference to some committee members if it comes down to those two teams.  The Wolverines still needs at least one more signature win (and maybe more) to make the NCAA tournament.  But the season finale, hosting Michigan St. provides a great opportunity to both pick up a quality win and improve to .500 in Big Ten play.

At the end of the first half of the heavily hyped BYU – San Diego St. game, Jimmer Fredette took a very deep AND guarded three from 8 feet beyond the arc.  It rimmed off and led to a San Diego St. fast-break bucket, one of several fast-breaks in a row.  San Diego St. pulled within three points at half-time.  But other than that run, BYU was in control the entire game.  And again, the difference was fairly simple.  BYU started off hot from outside and made 14 threes in the game.  San Diego St. had no answer.  Sometimes deep analysis is not needed.  Teams that make shots win big games.

Printable Brackets, Part 1

A not-so-hidden secret is that the NCAA tournament officially kicks off this Wednesday night.  Unless you are an Ivy League team (not named Harvard or Princeton), a member of the Great West Conference, or a team in a league where not all teams qualify for the conference tournament, you still have a shot to make it to the Sweet Sixteen.  All you need to do is win your league’s automatic bid and keep on winning.

The first week of championship week can provide a lot of drama, but it should have very limited implications for the bubble this year.  The next table shows various mid-major bubble teams, their wins against the RPI top 100, and their total losses on the season.  But not all top 100 wins are created equally, thus I also list the most important wins for each school on the right.  Do not take the bracketologist’s opinions as law.  Look at the numbers and draw your own conclusions.  (These numbers were true as of Sunday evening, but the Nitty Gritty is constantly updated at WarrenNolan.com.)  By my read, only five teams playing in conference tournaments this week have a shot at an at-large bid.  Those five teams would be George Mason, Old Dominion, Butler, Gonzaga, and St. Mary’s.

The CAA is particularly strong this year because even the second tier teams have key non-conference victories.  Drexel beat Louisville, and VCU beat Wichita St.  Thus for George Mason to dominate games against these teams really makes their profile look legitimate.  Old Dominion also played a very challenging non-conference slate, beating Xavier, Dayton, Richmond, Clemson and Cleveland St.  I think it is very likely the CAA gets at least two bids this year, and I believe Old Dominion will earn an at large bid even if they lose in the CAA semifinals.

On the other hand, the Horizon league is a mess with all the top teams beating up on one another.  But Milwaukee and Valparaiso have too many losses to teams outside the top 100 to be legitimate at large candidates.  Even Butler should not sleep too soundly.  Wins against Florida St. and Washington St. make it plausible Butler could earn an at large bid, but there are no guarantees.

I just do not see a scenario where Missouri St. or Wichita St. get an at large this year despite the MVC being the 12^th ranked RPI league.  The WCC is the 14^th ranked league, but the odds of an at large bid are a little better, particularly if Gonzaga and St. Mary’s meet in the final.  Both teams have legitimate non-conference wins.  But as good as St. Mary’s win against St. John’s looks now, their home loss to fellow bubble team Utah St leaves St. Mary’s in a precarious position.

None of the other conferences in action this week features a realistic at large candidate.  Pomeroy’s numbers may rank Belmont 21^st nationally because of their margin-of-victory in wins this year.  But Belmont has no quality wins outside the Atlantic Sun.  And they couldn’t even beat Tennessee in two tries, something other bubble teams (see Oakland and College of Charleston) were able to do.

Here are the printable brackets for the key conference tournaments starting this week:

MVC Printable Tournament Bracket (March 3-6) On Saturday, Wichita St.’s David Kyles hit his fifth three pointer of the game to pull Wichita St. into a tie with Missouri St. in the final minutes.  But Missouri St.’s Adam Leonard answered on the other end with a three to retake the lead.  And after a miss by Kyles, and a series of free throws, Missouri St. had its first MVC regular season title since joining the league 21 years ago.  In a way, the regular season title does not mean much.  The only way Missouri St. can be assured of an NCAA tournament bid is to win the conference tournament.  But you couldn’t tell that to Cuonzo Martin, his players, or the fans as they celebrated on the floor on Saturday.

CAA Printable Tournament Bracket (March 4-7) Even sixth place James Madison could win the tournament and earn a solid seed in the NCAA tournament.

WCC Printable Tournament Bracket (March 4-7) It might not seem significant that Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are slotted into the semifinals.  After all, they are the best two teams in the league.  But St. Mary’s lost to last place San Diego, so avoiding an upset possibility, however remote, still matters.

Horizon League Printable Tournament Bracket (March 1, 4-5, 8) Cleveland St., Butler, and Milwaukee shared the regular season crown.  But Thursday’s loss to Milwaukee relegated Cleveland St. to the third seed.  And in the wacky unbalanced Horizon bracket that means Cleveland St. has to play an extra two games in the tournament.

Keep in mind that you can follow all the tournament brackets as they unfold right here at RealGM.com.