You’ve heard this refrain on numerous occasions, so I will try to keep it short and to the point. The biggest jump in efficiency is typically between a player’s freshman year and sophomore year. And teams that give a lot of minutes to freshman usually get substantially better the following season. Of course, that only works if the players return, so I am going to list returning freshman possessions in the following tables:

Returning Freshmen, Percentage of Last Year’s Possessions

Memphis

67.4%

North Dakota

67.0%

St. Louis

54.5%

Alcorn St.

54.3%

Tennessee Martin

52.3%

Georgia Southern

51.5%

Ohio St.

48.0%

Saint Joseph's

47.5%

Michigan

46.2%

South Carolina Upstate

43.8%

Is it any surprise that many of the youngest teams were peaking at the end of last season? Memphis struggled in CUSA play, but won the CUSA tournament. St. Joseph’s was near last place in the A10, but went on a deep run in the A10 tournament. Michigan won only one game in the first half of the Big Ten schedule, and then took Duke down to the wire in the NCAA tournament. The trends are clear. Teams that play a lot of young players get better over time. 

Other Notable Teams, Returning Freshmen, Percentage of Last Year’s Possessions

Connecticut

41.7%

South Carolina

41.3%

Nevada

40.9%

DePaul

40.9%

Stanford

38.3%

Kentucky

36.2%

Last year’s CUSA standings

CUSA

CONF

OVERALL

 

UAB

12-4

22-9

NCAA First Four

UTEP

11-5

25-10

NIT First Round

Tulsa

11-5

19-13

 

Memphis

10-6

25-10

NCAA Round of 64

Southern Miss

9-7

22-10

 

Marshall

9-7

22-12

CIT First Round

SMU

8-8

20-15

CIT Final Four

East Carolina

8-8

18-16

CIT First Round

UCF

6-10

21-12

CBI Final Four

Rice

5-11

14-18

 

Houston

4-12

12-18

 

Tulane

3-13

13-17

 

Is it fair to ask when Mike Davis is going to get another crack at a BCS job? Sure he had his struggles at Indiana, but he also took the Hoosiers to the Final Four. And he has proven to be one of the top coaches in CUSA every year.

My interest in this league has fallen precipitously this off-season. DJ Newbill’s departure makes Southern Miss substantially less interesting. Central Florida had that eight-game losing streak after starting 14-0 last year. And the only thing Tim Floyd has really done at UTEP is get publicity for getting kicked out of a game. Frankly, I’m struggling for positive things to say about this league. 

I should probably write some kind words about Rice forward Arsalan Kazemi, who might be this year’s Kenneth Faried. But Ballin’ is a Habit has already identified him as the potential conference player of the year. So let me focus on a fact you may not be aware of. Marshall head coach Tom Herrion has become the master of the offensive rebound. He ended his tenure at the College of Charleston with Josh Jackson and Jermaine Johnson grabbing a ridiculous number of offensive boards. Then he went to Pittsburgh as an assistant just as DeJuan Blair came to town and helped groom Blair in the post. And last year he turned Marshall from the 104th best offensive rebounding team in the nation into the 19th best, as he moved Nigel Spikes, Tirrell Baines, and Johnny Thomas, three players with natural offensive rebounding ability, into the regular rotation. But Baines and Thomas have moved on this off-season. Now it is time to see whether Herrion really has the magic touch at teaching offensive rebounding, or if he has just had a magical run of great players.

Last year’s Big Ten Standings

Big Ten

CONF

OVERALL

 

Ohio State

16-2

34-3

NCAA Sweet Sixteen

Purdue

14-4

26-8

NCAA Round of 32

Wisconsin

13-5

25-9

NCAA Sweet Sixteen

Michigan

9-9

21-14

NCAA Round of 32

Illinois

9-9

20-14

NCAA Round of 32

Penn State

9-9

19-15

NCAA Round of 64

Michigan State

9-9

19-15

NCAA Round of 64

Nebraska (Big 12)

7-9

19-13

NIT First Round

Northwestern

7-11

20-14

NIT Elite Eight

Minnesota

6-12

17-14

 

Iowa

4-14

11-20

 

Indiana

3-15

12-20

 

This offseason was a case of bad news / good news for the Big Ten. The addition of Nebraska, another rugged, defensive minded team means more brutally ugly basketball games. But with Ed DeChellis leaving Penn St., at least one of the brutally slow-paced coaches is now gone. I completely respected DeChellis as a head coach. He consistently got the most production out of his limited talent base. But Penn St. was responsible for some of the ugliest basketball games in the last ten years. I don’t know if I will ever be able to forget what Penn St. did to Illinois in 2009 (38-33) or what Penn St. did to Wisconsin in last year’s Big Ten Tournament (36-33). I seriously wonder whether Gus Johnson gave up college basketball because he called that Penn St. vs Wisconsin game last year. 

Quiz question: Will Northwestern finally make the NCAA tournament for the first time in team history before Tom Crean can get Indiana back into the NCAAs? Or will freshman post player Cody Zeller cause Indiana to leap ahead of the Cats? Tom Crean has been able to groom some talented guards at Indiana, but he desperately needs a star player in the post. Zeller looks like that player, but it might be asking a lot out of a freshman to carry the load. I seriously hope for Zeller’s sake that he adjusts well to the college game, because I don’t think one of college basketball’s best fanbases can take another disappointing season. 

William Buford has constantly been overshadowed at Ohio St. despite putting together an absolutely fabulous career. Just look at his three year “comp’s”, a new feature on kenpom.com. Over his career he’s gone from looking like E’Twaun Moore to Chase Budinger to Nolan Smith. That is ridiculous. This season, as a senior, I hope Buford finally gets the national respect he deserves.

Wisconsin’s defense started to slip last year, and with Jon Leuer and his great defensive rebounding departing, Bo Ryan may have some real questions on that side of the ball. I am not saying Ryan cannot figure those out, but it is a chink in the armor.

Delvon Roe’s decision to give up basketball due to injury is extremely disappointing. I was ready to argue that on paper, Michigan St. had one of the best starting rotations in the country. With three highly efficient players returning (Draymond Green, Delvon Roe, and Keith Appling), highly efficient lead guard Brandon Wood transferring from Valparaiso, and rebounding monster Branden Dawson enrolling in school, there was a lot of reason to be excited about the Spartans. And even with Roe retiring, there is still reason to be excited. But on a team with too many holes last year, every additional question mark makes me nervous. 

Last year, ESPN ran a feature called “worst case scenario/best case scenario” for various teams. I think this is the appropriate way to think about Purdue. How bad could this team become? Matt Painter’s teams play some of the most consistent swarming defense in the nation. Even if Purdue loses two of the most productive offensive players in the country in JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore, the worst case scenario is that this team looks like Illinois from 2007-2009 where the team competed for NCAA bids on defense alone. And the best-case scenario is that Robbie Hummel comes back and becomes a star again.

Pegging Illinois is even more puzzling. Last year was universally seen as a disappointment, but the Illini’s margin-of-victory numbers were solid. They just lost a number of close games, which has become a disturbing trend under Bruce Weber. But in the end, the team did win an NCAA tournament game for the first time since Bill Self’s players graduated, so the season was not a complete loss. But I really cannot describe last season without one final word on Demetri McCamey. To be an elite point guard, you have to have a good feel for your teammates. You have to figure out which players are in a groove, and feed those players the ball. And when no one is comfortable, you have to be able to take over the game. McCamey had incredible skills, but a terrible feel for the flow of the game. Will Bradley transfer point guard Sam Maniscalco have a better feel for Illinois this year? If he does, Illinois still has a lot of talent. The last three recruiting classes have been great, and even without Jereme Richmond, Illinois still has 8 RSCI top 100 recruits on the roster. Only five other teams in the entire nation have that many ranked players. But with Illinois failing to live up to expectations the last few years, those recruiting stats are somehow less compelling. I think ultimately, if Illinois wants to be dominant, they have to bite the bullet and play the younger Top 100 recruits. They have to hope to have a season like the Michigan Wolverines had last year. The best thing about freshman is they get better with experience.