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Team |
PW |
PL |
P% |
FrP% |
T10Fr |
N100 |
Total |
NC |
RV |
MOV12 |
Louisville |
13 |
5 |
70% |
18% |
0 |
0 |
7 |
N |
0.964 |
0.907 |
Syracuse |
12 |
6 |
42% |
8% |
0 |
3 |
6 |
N |
1.021 |
0.940 |
Marquette |
12 |
6 |
61% |
14% |
0 |
1 |
6 |
N |
0.950 |
0.903 |
Notre Dame |
11 |
7 |
72% |
9% |
0 |
1 |
1 |
N |
1.029 |
0.814 |
Georgetown |
11 |
7 |
46% |
30% |
0 |
1 |
6 |
N |
1.002 |
0.916 |
Cincinnati |
11 |
7 |
66% |
10% |
0 |
0 |
1 |
N |
1.003 |
0.860 |
Pittsburgh |
9 |
9 |
63% |
12% |
0 |
2 |
6 |
N |
1.006 |
0.764 |
South Florida |
9 |
9 |
45% |
15% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
N |
1.013 |
0.799 |
Villanova |
8 |
10 |
79% |
37% |
0 |
2 |
7 |
N |
0.979 |
0.718 |
Seton Hall |
8 |
10 |
53% |
25% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
N |
0.988 |
0.777 |
Connecticut |
8 |
10 |
55% |
17% |
0 |
1 |
5 |
N |
0.985 |
0.818 |
Rutgers |
7 |
11 |
84% |
54% |
0 |
1 |
3 |
N |
0.999 |
0.630 |
Providence |
7 |
11 |
100% |
22% |
0 |
3 |
4 |
N |
1.000 |
0.607 |
DePaul |
5 |
13 |
84% |
19% |
0 |
0 |
1 |
N |
0.979 |
0.541 |
St. John's |
4 |
14 |
69% |
55% |
0 |
1 |
4 |
N |
1.005 |
0.525 |
-Louisville is a really interesting case. I’m not projecting any of their players leaving early, so they should have everyone back from the Final Four rotation except Chris Smith, Kyle Kuric, and likely transfer Jared Swopshire. On the one hand, Kuric and Smith were the most efficient offensive players on the team and that is not a good sign. On the other hand, the team was built on elite defense this year and almost all the key defensive players should be back.
-With Hollis Thompson declaring for the draft, Georgetown loses a ton of production (see P%). But the Hoyas gave a lot of minutes to freshmen last year (FrP%), and the typical sophomore leap for those players should help overcome the departures.
-In the UConn projections I’m assuming Jeremy Lamb, Alex Oriakhi, and Andre Drummond leave, but Jim Calhoun comes back.
-There is no weak bottom in the Big East anymore. St. John’s lost Big East freshman-of-the-year Moe Harkless to the draft, and lost out on some recruits due to Steve Lavin’s illness, but they will be competitive. The reason St. John’s is projected for last place is because no one else is terrible on paper. Providence adds two prized recruits and brings everyone back and DePaul is continuing on the long-road back to relevance under Oliver Purnell.
Team |
PW |
PL |
P% |
FrP% |
T10Fr |
N100 |
Total |
NC |
RV |
MOV12 |
Duke |
13 |
5 |
72% |
8% |
0 |
2 |
8 |
N |
1.009 |
0.878 |
NC State |
13 |
5 |
80% |
4% |
0 |
3 |
7 |
N |
0.994 |
0.825 |
N. Carolina |
11 |
7 |
32% |
18% |
0 |
4 |
8 |
N |
0.976 |
0.935 |
Florida St. |
11 |
7 |
41% |
3% |
0 |
1 |
5 |
N |
1.068 |
0.865 |
Miami FL |
11 |
7 |
78% |
12% |
0 |
0 |
3 |
N |
1.020 |
0.798 |
Virginia |
10 |
8 |
55% |
15% |
0 |
3 |
4 |
N |
0.971 |
0.839 |
Virginia Tech |
10 |
8 |
73% |
34% |
0 |
1 |
6 |
N |
1.005 |
0.697 |
Maryland |
8 |
10 |
83% |
29% |
0 |
3 |
5 |
N |
0.989 |
0.579 |
Clemson |
7 |
11 |
56% |
24% |
0 |
0 |
3 |
N |
0.927 |
0.725 |
B. College |
5 |
13 |
97% |
73% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
N |
0.998 |
0.263 |
Georgia Tech |
5 |
13 |
79% |
7% |
0 |
3 |
7 |
N |
0.989 |
0.440 |
Wake Forest |
4 |
14 |
55% |
12% |
0 |
3 |
4 |
N |
1.068 |
0.377 |
-Now here are some interesting projections. NC State is going to be a popular pick this year due to all those Top 100 recruits on the roster. (Like Arizona, they are going to be one of the most talked about teams this off-season.) But the ACC is going to be stronger across the board and it should be hard to run away with the league next year.
-A lot of people are going to hate this projection for Duke (unless Shabazz Muhammad surprises us by picking Duke instead of Kentucky.) But this is all about defense. The model says that based on history, Mike Krzyzewski won’t have a bad defensive team two years in a row.
-I agree that the model is too harsh on North Carolina, but here is what the model is calculating. UNC loses 4 critical starters from a 7 player rotation and no one in the recruiting class is a sure thing. If North Carolina had one or two Top 10 recruits, things would look different, but on paper they don’t look like the ACC champs. Leslie McDonald’s and Dexter Strickland’s return from injury is accounted for in the model, but in the model they return with slightly reduced production.
Team |
PW |
PL |
P% |
FrP% |
T10Fr |
N100 |
Total |
NC |
RV |
MOV12 |
New Mexico |
13 |
3 |
66% |
8% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
N |
1.024 |
0.899 |
UNLV |
11 |
5 |
61% |
0% |
0 |
3 |
6 |
N |
0.978 |
0.816 |
San Diego St. |
10 |
6 |
84% |
0% |
0 |
1 |
1 |
N |
0.994 |
0.750 |
Colorado St. |
8 |
8 |
83% |
2% |
0 |
1 |
1 |
Y |
0.994 |
0.681 |
Wyoming |
7 |
9 |
50% |
11% |
0 |
0 |
1 |
N |
0.985 |
0.672 |
Nevada |
7 |
9 |
64% |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
N |
1.022 |
0.641 |
Boise St. |
6 |
10 |
84% |
37% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
N |
1.012 |
0.505 |
Fresno St. |
5 |
11 |
70% |
1% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
N |
1.005 |
0.439 |
Air Force |
5 |
11 |
90% |
26% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Y |
1.001 |
0.401 |
-Boise St. would be my sleeper based on all the minutes they gave to young players last year, but the league standings should look very similar to last season.
-Wyoming loses a lot of offense, but brings back all its top defensive players.
-Nevada has a lot of recent NCAA tournament history, but the MWC is a big step up from last year’s WAC.