Pundits' pessimistic predictions and magazines' gloomy forecasts aside, Heat coach Pat Riley never enters a season thinking his team won't be among the elite.

And he has the numbers to back up his optimism. In 19 seasons, including the past six in Miami, no Riley-coached team has ever finished below .500. He had a run of 12 consecutive division titles, nine with the Lakers (four titles) and three with the Knicks. Under Riley, the Heat had a string of four Atlantic Division titles snapped last season by the 76ers.

So why would Sports Illustrated pick the Heat for eighth place in the Eastern Conference and 16th overall? ESPN.com also predicted an eighth-place finish in the East while NBC/Sporting News experts boosted the Heat to sixth.

"I didn't care when they picked us, and I don't care now. We're putting together a team," said Riley, who added veterans Rod Strickland and Chris Gatling last week. "I still have more work to do with it. I'm not ever thinking we can't win at a very high level regardless of what we have. We'll leave that to other people."