His ability to produce 50-win seasons legendary, Pat Riley will have to get the Heat on that pace immediately -- or face the possibility of missing the playoffs for the first time in his 20 seasons as an NBA coach.

Over the past five seasons, it has taken an average of 42.8 wins (prorating for the strike-shortened 1998-99 lockout) to qualify for the eighth and final playoff berth in the Eastern Conference.

At 2-13, that would mean the Heat would have to go 41-26 (.612) the balance of the season for a 43-39 finish. Such a winning percentage is one Riley has achieved in all but two of his seasons, just coming up short at .610 during last season's 50-32 run.

"We've already put together all those numbers," Riley said after the Heat completed Monday's practice on the UCLA campus. "In order to get back to .500, it could take until the All-Star break. That's two and a half months. But you have to look at it that way. It's almost like we have to wipe the slate clean and come up with our own inner number."

In the Heat's favor is the shift of power away from the East.

Last season, it took a 41-41 record for Indiana to qualify for the final playoff berth in the East. Two years ago, 42-40 got Milwaukee and Detroit into the playoffs.