So the Heat are 18-29 and in a hole that's only slightly more shallow than it was a month ago. Now they have seven days before they continue the climb out.

With that much time to stew on their record, and the puzzling loss to Atlanta on Tuesday, it's only natural the Heat look at their situation and wonder just how realistic their playoff hopes are.

But given how difficult a task it is, it probably is better they not look ahead at all.

"Every game we lose sets us back three," forward Brian Grant said.

How true that is.

Last year's eighth-place team, the Indiana Pacers, reached the playoffs with a 41-41 record, five games ahead of the ninth-place Boston Celtics. During the last 10 82-game seasons, the eighth-place playoff team has averaged 41 wins. Given the relative mediocrity of the Eastern Conference this season, 41 wins likely will get a team into the playoffs again. One more win would practically make Miami a playoff lock.

For the Heat to win 42 games, they would have to finish 24-11. That's more than two wins for every loss, or winning 69 percent of the their games.

While Miami is playing well and has won 10 of its past 13 (a 77 percent winning clip), to maintain that pace for the remainder of the season is practically impossible, especially considering that the easier portion of the schedule has passed.

Of the remaining 35 games, 25 are against teams that are at .500 or better. Of those 25, 13 are on the road.

Normally the formula for a successful season is to break even on the road and win most of your home games. For the Heat to have a chance at the playoffs, they will have to do better than .500 on the road.

Miami has 16 games remaining away from home. So even if it was to win 15 of its remaining 19 home games, which is asking a lot given the team's 60-31 (66 percent) all-time record at the AmericanAirlines Arena, that means the team would have to go 9-7 on the road.

That includes road games against the Bucks, Timberwolves, Wizards, Mavericks, Pistons, Nets, Spurs, Raptors, Pacers, Celtics, Magic, Hornets and two against the 76ers. The toughest home games remaining are against the Wizards, Raptors, Suns, Celtics, Lakers and two against Orlando.

March is the most difficult month, with nine of the 16 games coming on the road and five sets of back-to-backs. If Miami is to make a push, it likely will come down to April, when seven of its 10 games are at home.

That's the big picture, one Heat players and coaches are trying to avoid so the task doesn't appear so daunting. The old one-game-at-a-time cliche applies more to this Heat team than any other.

But if there is one positive to hang onto throughout the final stretch it's this: Miami already has proven that it doesn't matter who the opponent is, only how well the Heat play. That has been proven this season in wins against the Lakers, Raptors Bucks, Trail Blazers, Spurs and Sonics, and losses to the Cavaliers and the Hawks three times each and a loss to the woeful Bulls.

So the Heat best take advantage of this All-Star break, because there is a lot of work to do beginning Wednesday at home against the Magic.