Jeffrey Denberg of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports on the guessing game being played by NBA front offices. Because of the luxury tax, some teams are trying to operate on a budget that won?t be known to them until after the season. "The idea is to encourage teams to keep [their payroll] low," Hawks president Stan Kasten said. "All we can do is make an educated guess," vice president and general manager Pete Babcock said last week.

Denberg breaks it down like this: Other than The Knicks, Mavericks and Trail Blazers, the rest of the league is trying to operate under the luxury tax limit. To cross the line is to invite a dollar-for-dollar tax. The problem is that teams that are close to the limit won?t know where they stand until after the fact. The NBA will not reveal the number until next July after all of this season's revenues have been counted. The best guess, Babcock says, has the line at a low of $51 million to as much as $54 million. Since the salary cap was lowered to $40 million, chances are the luxury tax will kick in at a lower level.

The dollar-for-dollar tax is one thing, but teams over the limit will also be excluded from the distribution of luxury tax dollars that go back to those teams that remain under the tax line. Denberg estimates that there are currently 12 teams below a $50 million salary level, ranging from San Antonio at $47.3 million to the Los Angeles Clippers at $22.5 million. Of course, both teams have only 10 of their required 12 players under contract.

Luxury tax fears restrict a player like Atlanta?s Ira Newble, who is seeking more than the Hawks are willing to pay and has little bargaining power. More established players like Rodney Rogers, Keon Clark and Matt Harpring also have met with sharp resistance. Rodgers and Clark were basically told to go shopping.

Rodgers landed a three-year, $9.9 million contract with the Nets after helping the Celtics to the Eastern Conference finals. Toronto declined to exercise an option on Clark, who got the Kings' $4.5 million middle-class exception for a year; Harpring signed a four-year deal with Utah reportedly in the $18-19 million range.