Teams have been notified that a forthcoming $37 million lump-sum payment to the Lakers from a local cable operator should increase Basketball Related Income this summer by roughly $74 million.

If that payment goes through, as expected, the probability of the luxury tax being triggered next season could be as low as 10 percent. That's according to University of North Carolina-Greensboro economics professor Dan Rosenbaum.

Rosenbaum estimates the probability of a luxury tax after the 2004-05 season at 50 percent if the lump-sum payment to the Lakers is held up in court or for any other reason.

It's no stretch, mind you, to suggest that the hard line commissioner David Stern has taken in labor negotiations with the union, seeking a more stringent luxury tax, is because he has just seen how teams spend when they don't expect a luxury tax.