RealGM Analysis
Preseason rankings and championship predictions, as seen by RealGM's Christopher Reina.
1. Indiana Pacers
The Stephen Jackson trade was brilliant. He will be their best scorer on many nights. Jermaine O?Neal will be their MVP candidate. Ron Artest will be his own MVP candidate, and he may not be wrong. Early injuries will be a blessing in the playoffs, as they will have fresh legs. Reggie Miller will return to the NBA Finals and win it this time in what will become his final season.
2. Denver Nuggets
A frontline of Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby, with Nene coming off the bench, is good enough for the Nuggets to be our number two ranked team in our preseason poll. They will be the first or second seed in the Western Conference. Some people believe that they too young to go the distance, but they will be playing the Pacers for the title in June.
3. Detroit Pistons
The best team of the NBA last season are even better this season with the addition of Antonio McDyess. They will dominate a lot of games, but with everyone gunning for the Champs, they will surely lose their fair shame of games. The biggest question will be whether Chauncey Billups can perform for 82 games like he did so masterfully in the Finals.
4. San Antonio Spurs
Any team with Tim Duncan will have a chance to win a title. The Spurs have one of the best front offices in the league and it shows as they added Brent Barry to their team this past offseason. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are ready to become All-Stars.
5. Dallas Mavericks
The Big 3 was broken up this summer with Steve Nash returning to the Suns, but they may actually be their best team yet. Erick Dampier will finally give them an adequate center. Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse are both solid NBA players. Their three young players, Josh Howard, Marquis Daniels and Devin Harris are very talented and will contribute significantly. This might be the final season Don Nelson is given a final chance by The Benefactor Mark Cuban.
6. Minnestoa Timberwolves
Kevin Garnett, like Tim Duncan can carry a team on his back and he?ll have to again this season. The window for them to win with Latrell Spreewell and Sam Cassell is quickly closing and they?re going to have to move Wally Szcerbiak.
7. Houston Rockets
Kobe and Shaq won three titles with lesser talent surrounding them than Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady have in Houston. They will play well with one another and they will have home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
8. Sacramento Kings
Losing Vlade Divac will hurt more in the locker room than on the floor, but it will affect the results on the floor. Nobody knows whether Chris Webber and Peja Stojakovic will manage to coexist. They still have a lot of talent and a healthy season of Bobby Jackson will keep the Kings a championship contender.
9. Miami Heat
The Heat will need something from somebody other than Shaquille O?Neal and Dwayne Wade. That tandem will be the second best in the NBA behind Yao and McGrady, but what separates the two clubs are the Rockets have much better doubt. Without a third and fourth solid player, there is no way the Heat will be able to contend with the Pistons and Pacers.
10. Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies have a 10-man rotation that found a way to win 50 games last year under Hubie Brown. They added Brian Cardinal and retained Stromile Swift, who will finally breakout this season. Pau Gasol demonstrated that he is one of the world?s top players this August in Athens.
11. Phoenix Suns
The Suns have one of the most exciting teams in the NBA, but their lack of frontcourt strength may cost them in the playoffs. Steve Nash, Quentin Richardson, Joe Johnson and Olympian?s Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion are one of the best starting five?s in the NBA, pound for pound.
12. L.A. Lakers
The post-Shaq era will be one of the NBA?s most interesting storylines. If Lamar Odom becomes the Scottie Pippen, the Lakers will be fine. If Brian Grant becomes Horace Grant, the Lakers will be fine. If Chucky Atkins can be B.J. Armstrong will be fine. If Chris Mihm can become Luc Longley, the Lakers will be fine. But will Kobe Bryant actually become Michael Jordan? Probably not this year.
13. New York Knicks
The Knicks are an Allan Houston or Kurt Thomas trade away from joining the East?s elite. They?re going to be exciting nevertheless. Jamal Crawford will be one of the NBA?s most exciting and improved players. He will excel on the big Garden stage. Stephon Marbury will settle into his hometown and Tim Thomas is going to evolve into a very effective player.
14. Golden State Warriors
New head coach Mike Montgomery was an interesting selection to lead a group of talented players, but no superstar. That has been the consistent problem with the Warriors during their playoff drought, no true or even remote superstar. Nobody on their roster now will ever become a superstar and so they will continue to toil in mediocrity for the foreseeable future. They could sneak into the playoffs with steady play from Derek Fisher and Dale Davis, and improvement from Jason Richardson, Mike Dunleavy, Jr. and Troy Murphy. Mickael Pietrus has the potential to become Ron Artest and if he does then they could break 40 wins.
15. Utah Jazz
They are an overrated team heading into this season. They overpaid for Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur and the euphoria Salt Lake City has now over those two will surely fade as they realize this. Andrei Kirilenko is a very good player, but he isn?t good enough to carry teammates of this level.
16. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers should be ranked ahead of the Utah Jazz, but their lack of overall depth keeps them at 16. Cleveland will live to regret their displeasure over the departure of Boozer. Drew Gooden will be a surprise success playing beside Lebron James at a much better price, which will allow them to round out their roster with greater overall talent. Lebron James is one year away from carrying a team on an extended playoff run. This time next year the Cavaliers will be a top ten team.
17. Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics are a lot better going into this season than they were last year, but that doesn?t mean they're that good. Gary Payton will have a resurgence. Ricky Davis will finally have a steady year. Paul Pierce will be one of the league?s best scorers. They could win their division, but will not get out of the first round of the playoffs.
18. Orlando Magic
Without a doubt they are the most improved team in the NBA. They would be higher if it was certain Grant Hill is once again healthy. With him they are definitely in the playoffs. Without him they?ll be in the lottery, but with very few ping pong balls. Steve Francis has a lot to prove and Dwight Howard is NBA ready.
19. Portland Trailblazers
The distraction of Shareef Abdur-Rahim trade rumors will affect team chemistry. Zach Randolph is one of the best power forwards in the league. They retained Darius Miles and the jury is still out on whether he will meet those lofty expectations. They could move up a few notches if Nick Van Exel is the healthy ?Nick the Quick? of his Dallas days.
20. Philadelphia 76ers
Allen Iverson is now their point guard. They?re starting rookie Andre Iguodala and that doesn?t bid well for their chances, but Iverson has a lot to prove this season and seems prepared to be a true point guard.
21. Milwaukee Bucks
Michael Redd is a very good player on a very bad team. The T.J. Ford injury doesn?t help matters. Neither does the trade for Keith Van Horn. Redd could be in the top 3 in scoring at the end of the season, as he plays for a huge contract.
22. New Jersey Nets
Jason Kidd will not be with the team by February. They are in full rebuilding mode, with Richard Jefferson as the cornerstone. Ron Mercer may have a resurgence. He?ll have to if they want to win any games. Brian Scalabrine will emerge as one of the league?s best hustle players, but the Nets are going to be back in the lottery.
23. Toronto Raptors
This will soon be Chris Bosh?s team. They have to move Vince Carter for draft picks and start from scratch. Rafer Alston was a nice addition, but it won?t matter.
24. Seattle Supersonics
The Ray Allen contract situation has been more or less resolved, he won?t be back in Seattle next season. On a team loaded with ?chuckers,? Allen will be the leading one. Rashard Lewis and Vladimir Radmanovic will be right behind him. The Sonics, like the Warriors have some talented players, but no superstar.
25. Chicago Bulls
Chicago has been waiting for Eddy Curry and Tyson Chandler to show the promise they had when they first joined the team. Rookies Luol Deng and Ben Gordon appear to be very good players and Kirk Hinrich had a solid first season and is expected to be even better this season. They are yet again one season away from a playoff return.
26. Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers find themselves in familiar territory, the cellar of the NBA. Kerry Kittles is hurt. Elton Brand will have a nice, but run of the mill season. Marko Jaric may be the present at point guard, but he is certainly not the future, as Elgin Baylor waits for Shaun Livingston to have an NBA body. They remain three or four years away from the playoffs.
27. New Orleans Hornets
Even if Jamal Mashburn were healthy, the Hornets were going to struggle against Western competition. Baron Davis is unhappy. So is Jamaal Maglorie. They are in for a long succession of losing seasons.
28. Washington Wizards
The Wizards officially became Golden State East when Antwan Jamison joined the club via trade. He joins former Warriors Gilbert Areans and Larry Hughes. If Kwame Brown actually has a decent season then they might win 25 games, but they?re a long ways away from a .500 record.
29. Atlanta Hawks
Antoine Walker may lead the league in shot attempts. Al Harrington is going to be the league?s most improved player, but they will have a top 3 pick in next year?s draft.
30. Charlotte Bobcats
The goal for the Bobcats is double digit wins. They have won a couple in the preseason, but teams won?t give them anything. Gerald Wallace will have to go crazy if they?ll even have a chance for them to win. Emeka Okafor was a solid selection and a trustable face of the franchise, but they?ll eventually wish they would have taken a chance on Ben Gordon or Shaun Livingston. It is too early to tell what will happen to this franchise over the next five years, but Charlotte fans better hope they draft well because their current nucleus isn?t going anywhere.
The columnist can be reached at Christopher.Reina@realgm.com.
